Preview: can SMU beat Navy, earn trip to AAC title game?

[PonyPride]

Can SMU beat Navy and earn trip to AAC championship game?
Midshipmen come to Dallas needing a win to become bowl-eligible
Posted on 11/22/2023 by PonyFans.com


There are a lot of teams for which the last game of the regular season offers a clear blueprint of the postseason.

For the SMU Mustangs, Saturday’s game against Navy is not exactly one of those games. The Mustangs (9-2 overall, 7-0 in games against American Athletic Conference opponents) have had an outstanding season, and are headed to a postseason bowl game. With a victory over the Midshipmen (5-5 overall, 4-3 in AAC games), the Mustangs would complete an undefeated conference season and earn a trip to the AAC Championship game — whether they host it or not depends on the outcome of the Tulane/UTSA game. (If the Green Wave and SMU win, the game would be in New Orleans; if the Roadrunners and Mustangs win, SMU would host UTSA. If SMU loses Saturday, the spot in the title game will come down to computer rankings between SMU and the loser of the Tulane/UTSA game.)

The Mids will have plenty of incentive: they need to beat SMU to get bowl-eligible, because their annual showdown against Army will be played December 9 — after bowl invitations are handed out.

Saturday’s game kicks off at 11 a.m. at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, and can be seen on ESPN2 and heard on KTCK (96.7 FM/1310 AM) “The Ticket.” The winner will receive the Gansz Trophy, the legendary former special teams coach who coached at both schools.

Navy has a slim 13-11 edge in the teams’ 24 previous meetings, but the Mustangs have won three straight and four of the last five against the Midshipmen. Navy is 6-5 all-time in games played against the Ponies in Dallas, but just like in the overall series, the Ponies have won three straight home games in the series.

The Navy season can be broken into two distinctly different parts: the Midshipmen stumbled at the start of the season, winning just one of their first four games, and that came against Wagner. But since then, Navy has won four of six — most recently a 10-0 shutout of East Carolina.

Blanking a team like ECU, with a relatively anemic offense, might not be the most impressive accomplishment of the season, but what Navy’s defense has done this season is remarkable. For all the attention paid — deservedly so — to the rebirth of the SMU defense, consider what has gone on in Annapolis: Navy is the only program in the country to record three shutouts this season — the most shutouts for the Mids since 1978, when they had four. The red zone defense is ranked No. 1 in the country, allowing opponents to score just 65 percent of the time, and is tied for first in the nation with Penn State with 13 recovered fumbles.

And how many times have coaches identified winning the turnover battle as a key to victory? Navy averages 1.4 takeaways per game more than its opponents — the second-best margin in the country.

As would be expected for a team with a .500 record, the statistics this season are relatively even. Opponents have outscored the Mids by an average of 19.3-18.7 points per game.

But things have changed under first-year Brian Newberry, who took over as the program’s head coach after four years as an assistant under longtime head coach Ken Niumatalolo. Watch closely and you’ll see something few ever associate with the Navy program: the forward pass.

Sure, the Midshipmen remain a run-first offense, averaging 202.3 yards per game on the ground. But they also have a passing game now. Nobody is going to mistake it for a version of the Air Raid offense, but Navy — Navy! — is now putting up 101.8 yards per game through the air.
Not surprisingly for a team from one of the service academies, the offense is careful with the ball, losing just six fumbles and three interceptions, while recovering 13 fumbles and picking off 10 passes. Not surprisingly, Navy has scored 49 points off turnovers, compared to just 14 such points for its opponents.

The Midshipmen have played four quarterbacks this season; Xavier Arline has started the last three. Against ECU, he ran 18 times for 68 yards … and all he did as a passer was to complete 10 of 11 attempts for 102 yards. For the season, he is the team’s third-leading rusher, with 68 carries for 264 yards and a pair of scores, and the second-leading passer, completing 23 of 36 passes for 320 yards and a pair of scores. An extraordinary athlete, he also was the second-leading scorer on the Navy lacrosse team with 31 points on 15 goals and 16 assists.

Leading the ground game, of course, is fullback Alex Tecza (6-0, 195), who has 115 carries for 723 yards (6.3 yards per carry) and a team-high five rushing touchdowns. Junior Daba Fofana (5-8, 205) is next, with 68 carries for 281 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

In recent weeks, SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee has spotlighted the fact that Mustangs are winning despite the fact that no receiver has as many as 35 receptions (Jake Bailey leads the team with 33; three others — R.J. Maryland, Jordan Hudson and Romello Brinson — have 26, 25 and 24, respectively).

In Annapolis — the Midshipmen’s new-found fondness for the passing game notwithstanding — the receiving numbers are even more modest. Sophomore slot back Eli Heidenreich (6-0, 195) leads all Navy receivers with 14 receptions for 320 yards, for a gaudy 22.9 yards per catch. His four receiving touchdowns account for almost half of the team total: the offense has completed just nine touchdown passes this season.

Heidenreich is followed by sophomore slot back Brandon Chatman (5-9, 167), who has 13 catches for 211 yards; fullback Alex Tecza (6-0, 195) is the only other Middie with double-digit receptions: he has 11 for 54 yards.

The defense, as detailed above, has been exceptional, and operates out of a 3-4 alignment as its base formation. Senior defensive tackle Clay Cromwell (6-3, 292) is the only starter who even sniffs the 300-pound plateau; 6-3 defensive end Justin Reed and 6-foot noseguard Donald Berniard both weigh in at just 256 pounds. But while they might not physically overwhelm larger offensive linemen, they have been more than effective, making tackles and occupying blockers so the Navy linebackers can roam free to make plays.

Newberry expressed admiration for the job done by the defensive line, and clarified that part of the unit’s success is a result of the depth that allows coaches to rotate fresh players in and out of the lineup.

“All three of those who start for us, we could probably roll them out and play the whole game and be fine with those guys, unless it’s a game where (the defense is playing) 80, 90 snaps,” Newberry said. “But to keep them fresh, like we want to be able to do, you’ve got to have sufficient backups in there, and those guys have done a great job in relieving those guys and not being a huge dropoff when they go in there.”

The defensive linemen have performed well, but the defense is led by junior linebacker Colin Ramos (5-11, 215), a relentless pursuer of the ball who has a team-high 88 tackles in 10 games, has reached double figures in tackles in each of the last four games and has been named AAC Defensive Player of the Week in each of the last two weeks.

“He’s playing out of his mind, he’s playing really fast, knows the defense really, really well, very comfortable with everything that we’re doing,” Newberry said. “He’s always in the right place, has great instincts. His effort is tremendous all the time — (he has) a tremendous motor. He’s one of the toughest kids in our program, (and) he loves playing football.

“I don’t think we have a more consistent player in our program — (Ramos is) consistent in the way that he practices, consistent in the effort that he plays with. He’s a junior now. He has played a lot of snaps. He’s extremely comfortable with the defense, he knows what’s going on around him. He’s 208, 210 pounds maybe … 5-11 … but he plays like a giant in there and just tough — tough as nails.”

Senior Will Harbour, of Frisco, Texas is second on the team with 71 tackles, and his 7.5 tackles for loss trail only the nine turned in by RAIDER (a hybrid defensive end/edge rusher in the Navy defense) Luke Pirris’s 9.

Reed leads the pass rush with 4.5 sacks this season, followed by nose guard Landon Robinson (6-0, 278), who has 4. Cornerback Dashaun Peele (5-11, 197) and free safety Rayuan Lane (5-11, 197) share the team lead with four interceptions each.

Newberry said that he has no worry that his players will lack focus against the Mustangs because of a possible eye toward the December 9 Army game. He said the recent history against SMU offers all of the incentive the Midshipmen could possibly need against a team he perceives as one of the heavyweights in the AAC.

“It’s a tremendous opportunity — no question about it — and a game you want to be able to play in November,” Newberry said. “(We) have a chance to win our sixth game and become bowl-eligible, and knock off a team at the top of our conference — a team that’s leaving our conference — it’s a tremendous opportunity. I know our guys have a big chip in our shoulder in regards to SMU. Really the last two times we went out there, we kind of got embarrassed. Our kids know what’s at stake. I think they’re chomping at the bit. They’ll get the best of us — I know that.”

[highlander]

Well schidt, now I'm nervous!

[Charleston Pony]

Navy should make us all nervous. Always a hard fought win against them.

[redpony]

Navy will be ready to play. I hope our D is up to stopping them. IMO this game is as important was the memphis game was.

[PlanoStang]

Like he mentioned above, NAVY is playing for a bowl game

[mrydel]

Navy can lose and still be in a bowl game. Both Navy and Army have 5 wins so even if Navy and Army (open date this weekend) are at 5 the selection committee can just state that the winner of Army/Navy gets a slot in the xyz bowl. We have much more incentive to win than does Navy, and watching how the coaching staff has prepared the team this season, I have no worries about us being ready.

[mtrout]

Navy without Niumatalolo is a chicken wing without sauce.

[PlanoStang]

Navy can lose and still be in a bowl game. Both Navy and Army have 5 wins so even if Navy and Army (open date this weekend) are at 5 the selection committee can just state that the winner of Army/Navy gets a slot in the xyz bowl. We have much more incentive to win than does Navy, and watching how the coaching staff has prepared the team this season, I have no worries about us being ready.

By the time they play Army, the bowl games will be invited.

[mrydel]

Navy can lose and still be in a bowl game. Both Navy and Army have 5 wins so even if Navy and Army (open date this weekend) are at 5 the selection committee can just state that the winner of Army/Navy gets a slot in the xyz bowl. We have much more incentive to win than does Navy, and watching how the coaching staff has prepared the team this season, I have no worries about us being ready.

By the time they play Army, the bowl games will be invited.

That is why I said you name the winner of the Army/ Navy game as a bowl participant in a particular bowl when announcements are made. Such as “Military Bowl: Toledo vs winner of Army/Navy”. Very simple.


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