W2W4 - Navy

[JasonB]

Last game of the season, and win and we are in the conference championship game. This is exactly where we all thought we would be heading into the season and we just need one more win to have a shot for our first conference championship since the '80s. Just remember, Navy is Navy. They are most likely going to find a way to make the game close - drops, key tackles, help from refs, or just getting 3 yards a carry and going for it on 4th down. These games almost never go "as they should". Navy is a well disciplined team that doesn't make a lot of mistakes and plays good defense.

- Similar to last week with Memphis, the Navy defense thrives on turnovers. They force a lot of fumbles, get picks, and are top 5 in the country in turnovers created. They also don't turn the ball over, and are second in the country in turnover margin. This is a huge thing for a team like Navy - the ball control offense limits possessions to begin with, so if you lose possessions with turnovers it puts a lot of pressure on your offense. SMU has a much better team than Navy, but Turnovers and penalties are the great equalizer. SMU has to keep the turnovers down.
- Navy's defense has some pretty good numbers, but "per-play" they struggle a bit. Their defensive warts get covered a bit by the offense holding onto the ball and creating turnovers.
- That said, as you would expect, they have a good run defense. This is pretty typical with option teams to have a good offensive and defensive line, and Navy is no different. If you just try to power run at them, you are playing right into their game.
- The pass defense doesn't have great numbers, but because they force turnovers they actually have a really good coverage rating. It is important to note, however, that Navy has played a string of bad football teams and that has really inflated their pass defense statistics from where they were earlier in the year.
- Navy will line up in a 4-2-5 most of the time. The area they have really stabilized is at the 3 safety positions. They will mix up who plays in the slot, which allows them to present a lot of different looks defensively. All of their safeties are really good in coverage and also are pretty effective against the run.
- The corners are okay in coverage as well... so why do they struggle in pass defense? They don't generate much of a rush. And the LBs are not athletic enough in coverage. Eventually, someone will come open. You just have to work through progressions, be patient in the pocket, and then hit a RB in the flat or RJ or scramble in order to take advantage of LBs operating in space.
- I would look for SMU to come out and establish the pass first. Test them deep early in the game to keep safeties helping and then expose them underneath. Rooster and Camar out of the backfield could have big games receiving. After the passing game opens it up, then you can run. But if you just run from the beginning, the DL is good enough to put up a fight, they have a really good run defense LB, and their safeties are good enough to help and limit gains.
- All of that said, keep your eye on the run blocking up front. When we pushed Osborne out to tackle, playing Sparks and Parr at guard and Hickman at center, the pass blocking struggled a little against Memphis, but the run blocking was fantastic. Add in PJ for Bryant at LT and I think it might actually be a much improved run blocking unit. SMU has run the ball really well for several games in a row, and if we can continue that against Navy it really bodes well for the championship game. Believe it or not after the early struggles in the season, SMU is now 27th in the country in running yards per game. This is going to be really critical in the redzone. Navy is one of the top redzone defensive teams, and the OL his going to have to come up big to convert possessions into TDs.
- On the offensive side of the ball, one thing that has really helped Navy is finding their QB, Arline. He has started the last three games and has put up some really solid numbers. He throws for a high completion percentage and what makes him different is that it isn't the old Navy offense of run the ball a ton and just huck it deep every once in a while. When he drops back he holds the ball (too long at times) and finds an open receiver. He almost always throws the ball across the middle rather than testing the corners on the sides, and while he takes deep shots across the middle pretty effectively, most of his passes are within 10 yards of the line. They also run a lot of pop passes with him.
- The big key is putting him under pressure. The OL doesn't block well in pass coverage, he holds the ball long, and he takes a lot of sacks.
- As usual, the key is stopping their FB up the middle. Tecza is the main guy in the running game, but they will rotate at FB and keep pounding the ball up the middle. They run the dive far more frequently than any other play.
- They actually will have the QB keep more frequently than they pitch it out. Again, Arline has made a big difference because he is a more explosive runner than the QBs they were using earlier in the season.
- This is a strength versus strength matchup. SMU has a TON of depth on the DL. Rogers and Paul can both take blockers on and generate pressure on the edge, while Miller, Chatman, Levelston, Sandjo, Roberson... There are a lot of really good linemen. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Levelston play on the edge in this game at times.
- SMU also has a great set of LBs that aren't afraid to play physically. I am interested to see if Kilgore plays a lot. The option might make him bite some, but the way he is built physically, this type of game is perfect for him, and you might see him get snaps in front of Adimora this game in basically a three player rotation with Walker and Wilson. Sanders isn't afraid of physical contact outside to help against the pitch, and both McGill and NWO are great against the run as well.

I expect to see an SMU defense come out ready to play and make a statement after the Memphis game. You heard Symons in the press conference almost talking like it was a loss. This is a unit that carried SMU for the first half of the season, and is going to want to end the regular season on a high note. I think SMU is going to absolutely dominate this game at the point of attack. Good defenses have held the Navy offense in check this season - they scored 10 against ECU, 6 against Air Force, 14 against Charlotte, and 3 against Notre Dame. I would be really surprised if SMU allows more than 14 and I think there is a good chance SMU holds them to single digits.

On offense, Preston needs to be patient, but the underneath stuff is going to be there, and the OL just needs to be physical and finish in the redzone. Navy will be bend and not break and force SMU to convert in the redzone.

I think SMU does it and comes out and makes a statement before the conference championship. SMU 27 - 3.

[BUS]

Thank you as always a good read.
Go Mustangs.

[dalpony]

Thank you JasonB - truly appreciate the time and energy you put in to your analysis - really helps the enjoyment of the game

[ALEX LIFESON]

Jason, If we hold Navy to three points, I will buy your popcorn and coke.

[peruna81]

Jason, If we hold Navy to three points, I will buy your popcorn and coke.

I'm in for a hotdog...

[Blvd_Stang]

Thank you, these are really amazing