Will SMU pass Liberty if we BOTH win?

[smuhype]

The more I am reading on this the more I am concerned about us not being able to leapfrog them in the CFP standings.

If we both WIN, I almost feel like we have to win BIG and they need to struggle to a tight victory vs. a salty team from Las Cruces, thus helping the committee move us past them in last standings.

What do we think here?

[Statler]

The more I am reading on this the more I am concerned about us not being able to leapfrog them in the CFP standings.

If we both WIN, I almost feel like we have to win BIG and they need to struggle to a tight victory vs. a salty team from Las Cruces, thus helping the committee move us past them in last standings.

What do we think here?

Nothing changes.

From my weather post:https://vault.si.com/vault/1983/11/28/it-rained-on-smus-parade

[Mustangs_Maroons]

The general consensus is that the winner of the AAC will be the best group of 5 rated team when it’s all said and done, hence either SMU or Tulane will be the one in the NY6 Bowl. The AAC is the best out of the G5 conferences, and if SMU beats Tulane at their stadium, that should be enough for SMU to overtake Liberty. It was disappointing, however, that the CFP committee didn’t have us ranked at the end of the regular season.

The problem is Liberty is undefeated but have not played a single P5 opponent. If Liberty had our schedule, they would very likely have two or three losses (probably also lose away at Memphis). The problem is Liberty is now benefitting from playing a NMSU team that beat Auburn. Even though Auburn is not very good, recency bias gives them a boost if they beat NMSU to win the conference since NMSU beat Auburn, and Auburn should have won against Alabama this past weekend. People are concluding that NMSU is a better team than they have shown all season. The reality is that NMSU has not had a good season and their saving grace is beating an Auburn team that has been highly inconsistent this year (seems like they play up and down to their competition). We have to assume that an SMU win against/at Tulane will trump anything Liberty has done all season.

[highlander]

The general consensus is that the winner of the AAC will be the best group of 5 rated team when it’s all said and done, hence either SMU or Tulane will be the one in the NY6 Bowl. The AAC is the best out of the G5 conferences, and if SMU beats Tulane at their stadium, that should be enough for SMU to overtake Liberty. It was disappointing, however, that the CFP committee didn’t have us ranked at the end of the regular season.

The problem is Liberty is undefeated but have not played a single P5 opponent. If Liberty had our schedule, they would very likely have two or three losses (probably also lose away at Memphis). The problem is Liberty is now benefitting from playing a NMSU team that beat Auburn. Even though Auburn is not very good, recency bias gives them a boost if they beat NMSU to win the conference since NMSU beat Auburn, and Auburn should have won against Alabama this past weekend. People are concluding that NMSU is a better team than they have shown all season. The reality is that NMSU has not had a good season and their saving grace is beating an Auburn team that has been highly inconsistent this year (seems like they play up and down to their competition). We have to assume that an SMU win against/at Tulane will trump anything Liberty has done all season.

"NMSU beat Auburn, and Liberty beat NMSU. Therefore, Liberty has sort of beaten a SEC team."

It seems like the transitive property of sports is selectively applied.

[mtrout]

If both win, it's gonna be the 2014 March Madness selection show all over again. Sunday morning 11am CFP reveal will be extra fire.

[EastStang]

Beating Tulane is a tall order. Let's focus on that and let the chips fall where they may.

[max the wonder dog]

Here's the selection committee roster:

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/selectioncommittee/roster

Jim Grobe is a former Baylor head coach, so probably not friendly.

Rod West is a senior executive at Entergy, the utility that serves LA, and he has an MBA and JD from Tulane, so if Tulane wins I don't see Liberty sneaking past them. (A win over SMU should lock it up without a thumb on the scale, but it's still nice to have one.)

I didn't notice anyone else on the committee with an obvious vested interest in the G5 selection.

[EastStang]

Grobe is also a UVA grad and former Wake Forest Coach. UVA people hate Liberty. Baylor people also don't like Liberty as it is more fundamentalist Baptist than they are. Also the Virginia Union VP might not be good for Liberty. Liberty is viewed by HBC folks as a school not friendly to them, due to its history with Jerry Falwell. On the down side, the Utah and KSU AD's are on the Committee. They probably will not want SMU in a New Year's Day Bowl. So, let's just focus on the Wave and see what happens. If we don't win, this doesn't matter. Remember the NCAA rule, if there's a way to screw SMU, they will find a way.

[JasonB]

No, we won't.

We have a win over Memphis, which at 53 in the ESPN FPI is 30 points higher than anyone Liberty has played. If we beat Tulane, they are 50. OU (8) and TCU (28) are so far above anyone Liberty has played, it is ridiculous. And SMU statistically has beaten bad teams much worse than Liberty has.

The fact that we aren't ranked at all, much less ahead of Liberty, tells you that the committee values undefeated teams. Look at where FSU is in their ranking. They will put the unknown (undefeated against a weak schedule) ahead of a known (Liberty in front of SMU with two good losses, FSU ahead of Texas with a loss against number 8, even though FSU hasn't played anyone ranked above Clemson at 19 and Texas has a win over Alabama (6)).

The only reason Tulane is ranked ahead of Liberty (and just barely at that) is they have an extra top 50 win (UTSA), and they can put an injury asterisk next to the loss against Ole Miss (15).

So, no, I don't think we will be ranked ahead of Liberty if we win - if the Committee valued us, we would already be ranked. Plus, unless Jennings has an incredible game, they can use the excuse of us not having our starting QB as a reason to keep us out.

It just goes to show that the Baylor model of playing incredibly weak teams non-conference was always the right model in the 4 team CFP. Even in the expanded playoff system, G5 schools should never schedule P5 schools, because a team playing the Liberty schedule will get that G5 berth with an undefeated season. Sure, if SMU would have won the OU or TCU game, we would be a lock to advance with a win against Tulane. But in the current system, it is much better to find out whether you are good enough to compete at that level at the end of the season than in the beginning.

[highlander]

How great would it be if Liberty lost, and Memphis or UTSA got to play Liberty and kicked their [deleted] (which I believe is what would happen)?

[Water Pony]

I am solely focused on beating Tulane. Projecting anything before then isn't healthy or wise.



Beat the Green Wave!

[Pony ^]

doubtful. Committee seems very inept.

[docabel]

The general consensus is that the winner of the AAC will be the best group of 5 rated team when it’s all said and done, hence either SMU or Tulane will be the one in the NY6 Bowl. The AAC is the best out of the G5 conferences, and if SMU beats Tulane at their stadium, that should be enough for SMU to overtake Liberty. It was disappointing, however, that the CFP committee didn’t have us ranked at the end of the regular season.

The problem is Liberty is undefeated but have not played a single P5 opponent. If Liberty had our schedule, they would very likely have two or three losses (probably also lose away at Memphis). The problem is Liberty is now benefitting from playing a NMSU team that beat Auburn. Even though Auburn is not very good, recency bias gives them a boost if they beat NMSU to win the conference since NMSU beat Auburn, and Auburn should have won against Alabama this past weekend. People are concluding that NMSU is a better team than they have shown all season. The reality is that NMSU has not had a good season and their saving grace is beating an Auburn team that has been highly inconsistent this year (seems like they play up and down to their competition). We have to assume that an SMU win against/at Tulane will trump anything Liberty has done all season.

"NMSU beat Auburn, and Liberty beat NMSU. Therefore, Liberty has sort of beaten a SEC team."

It seems like the transitive property of sports is selectively applied.

And UMass beat NMSU, so I assume they will take on the winner of Georgia/Alabama for the true SEC champion.

[mtrout]

Like the '72 Dolphins say: It's not about the wins, it's about the zero.

Keeping an undefeated team out breaks the world. Prepare for Frisco.

[highlander]

Like the '72 Dolphins say: It's not about the wins, it's about the zero.

Keeping an undefeated team out breaks the world. Prepare for Frisco.

By that logic, Tulane has no shot at NY6 if Liberty wins.