Some are looking forward to the game. Others are looking forward to not having to read my gibberish anymore, and even by my standards this is a long one
. But, there is something to look forward to for everyone, nonetheless.I'm envious of those who are there. I wish I could be there as well. Previous commitments have me stuck in Dallas this weekend. But there is a 100% chance I'll be at the bowl, wherever it is, so I hope to catch up with everyone then!
You know, coming into this year, I was really nervous about this game. With the jump to the ACC, I felt like this would be the last chance in a long time for us to compete for a title. But seeing the amount of investment in the program, and the extension of Lashlee... the pressure is off a little bit. Next year is a crazy difficult schedule, and we are going to struggle to get our footing, just as we have seen from the teams that joined the Big 12. But I do think we are going to be competing at the top sooner rather than later, so this no longer becomes the last chance saloon... anyway, on to the game.
- Tulane has certainly taken a step back this season from last season... this year's Tulane team would be a 2 TD underdog to the team last year. On the offensive side of the ball, Tulane has gone from top 25 to middle of the pack. Explosives have dropped substantially, which is a big result of
losing Spears to the NFL. Spears had the exact same number of carries as Hughes did (231), but 300 more yards. Also, Pratt doesn't run as much as he did. They have also lost some explosiveness at WR - Pratt has thrown for 500 less yards than last year, because last season you had Wyatt and Watts averaging almost 20 yards per catch. That lack of explosiveness has changed the offense quite a bit. The consistency of their running and passing game are both middle of the pack.
- Defensively, Tulane is actually just about as good this year as they were last year at stopping the run, and we all remember how dominant their DL was against SMU. But they have fallen a little bit in the secondary. Don't get me wrong, the secondary is still pretty decent. But it has not done as well as last season, and relies on turnovers.
- And that is a big key to the game - turnovers. This is the third straight game the Mustangs have played against one of the top turnover creating teams in the country (Navy and Memphis were also there). That number gets aided by the 5 turnovers they created last week against UTEP, but still it is pretty impressive. Tulane also has one of the best turnover margins in the country, at just about the same level as SMU. The difference is Tulane created 22 and lost 16, while SMU created 15 and only lost 10. Tulane's pass defense isn't as good overall as last season, but they make up for it by generating interceptions with 15 on the season. Tulane loses a fumble once a game, and with SMU starting a new QB, you kind of have a feeling that either an interception by Jennings or fumble by Tulane is going to play a big role.
- For SMU's offense against Tulane's defense, the biggest areas are going to be the passing game and explosive plays. SMU's passing game is much more efficient than Tulane's pass defense. And Tulane has given up explosive plays. As the season has moved along, we have seen several receivers from SMU come up with big plays down the field - Smith, Hudson, Moochie, Brinson, Maryland, Daniels, and Bailey are all capable of making it happen. On Tulane's side, Monroe and Robinson are their outside corners and are fantastic. Pedescleaux is their nickel corner/safety (they play the 4-2-5 just like SMU), and he has been great as well. They do play just about every down, and that is going to be an issue for them if the SMU offense gets rolling. In fact, they don't rotate very often across the secondary. Douglass and Despanie are the other two safeties. Douglass is the free safety and is very good in coverage, but struggles against the run. Despanie is the strong safety and he is the one who struggles in coverage. You have to find out where he is in coverage and try to punish him with the deep ball.
- One thing you might see from SMU is quite a bit of RPO. Not only is Jennings mobile, but Tulane has some deficiencies at LB. Small is great in coverage, but as good against the run. Machado is phenomenal against the run, but not good at all in coverage - he is a bigger LB. Grubbs also plays a ton of LB and is not good against the pass. Those are the three who will rotate in. If Grubbs and Machado are in, you want to throw. If Small is in, you want to run at him. Keep an eye on how effective SMU is at identifying personnel matchup issues.
- Tulane also generates a good amount of pressure, and it comes from everyone. DE and DT all generate a lot of pressures on the year. They don't blitz a ton, they just rely on that front 4 to collapse the pocket and cause problems.
- The line battle here is going to play a big part in the game. SMU had the best OL in conference this year, and we saw that reflected on the all conference teams. Moving Osborne out to tackle and inserting Sparks in the lineup has actually improved their play. But the Tulane DL is the best unit we have seen this season (outside of practice). We saw early in the year SMU's offense struggle against some of the better DL we faced - OU, TCU, Charlotte, ECU. Was that because we were hesitant to open the offense up with a new QB? Maybe, but now we have a new QB again. This is the big area to watch because Tulane has an 8 deep DL, and are very good at DE and DT both against the run and generating a pass rush. If Tulane is able to generate a pass rush with the front 4 it is going to be a long day for Jennings. And there is a really good chance the Tulane DL + LB stop our running game. The place to attack their defense is with underneath routes, hitting players deep against the SS, and...
- The big thing I would look at for SMU is Maryland against the LBs. This is where SMU can dictate matchups a little bit. If you split Maryland out wide most of the time, and Tulane tries to play Grubbs or Machado on him, he will have a very productive day. If they sub in Small to guard him, then you are leaving only one LB in the middle of the field and you have to run the ball, possibly behind Maryland off tackle when he is lined up in the slot so you get Small chasing. If they move the SS Despanie, again you throw to Maryland, and then if they leave Despanie back and cover with Douglass, then there are going to be other receivers who break free deep. Maryland could end up being the offensive focal point and how Tulane decides to cover him will dictate run versus pass and where a play is going. SMU is going to have to establish the pass before they are able to run the ball in this game, and that might be the path to do it.
- On the other side of the ball, our defense is better than their offense, both against the run and the pass. As mentioned before, this is not an explosive team, they are going to try and ball control you out of the game. It is going to be a contrast in styles - a Physical offense who is going to ball control with the occasional deep shot and take their time between plays versus SMU who are going to speed up the pace and try and get the ball downfield.
- Pratt is great. He is kind of the Troy Aikman of this era - not huge numbers, but he is in control of the game and team, mobile when he wants to be, accurate, great decision maker. Reliable. He gets the ball out and he doesn't take sacks. They don't take many deep shots because they don't have quite the weapons at WR as they did last season, but he is great in the mid-range passing game.
- In the running game, Hughes is good. Not at the same level of Spears of course, but physical and ran for 1500 yards. They are going to really try and establish the run and ride him if they can, but this is a great matchup for the SMU DL.
- Tulane also has a tendency this year to do a lot of short yardage stuff side to side and out wide, which again will play into the team speed of SMU's defense.
- I think what Tulane is going to try to take advantage of is their mid range passing game. Specifically their WR going against Megginson on 8 to 10 yard routes and get the ball out early. Pratt does an excellent job throwing these passes on time.
- Again, this is all going to come down to the line. Their center, Haynesworth, has had a really good year. His battle against Miller is going to be interesting to watch. Their guards aren't great, so if you can force a double to come on Miller and isolate the other DT against a guard, we can win that matchup pretty consistently. Their tackles have been okay, but some of that is because Pratt gets the ball out quickly. At the end of the day, Roberts is going to need to play like a man frustrated for being snubbed off first team all conference. And Chatman is going to need to dominate the other guard. Pratt needs to be looking at the line instead of hitting those mid range passes. Roberts is the guy who makes that happen. If we don't get the pass rush and Tulane struggles to run the ball (every team so far struggles to run the ball), then Pratt will just sit back there and pick us apart.
If Preston were playing in this game, I would have SMU winning by at least 10. I love our defense any time they play against a run-first offense. Tulane has only scored in the 20s against every decent defense they have played, and they are about to play against the best defense they have played against all year. They only score low 30s against the really bad defenses. Pratt is a great QB who is going to make plays in big time games, and it would allow them to get to 20 against SMU, but not much more than that.
But Preston isn't playing in this game. The reason I picked against SMU in the OU and TCU games is that we were playing against good teams on the road with an inexperienced QB. And now we are playing against a good team on the road with an inexperienced QB.
I'm not saying that I don't think Jennings is good - he is. He has a great arm and has shown the ability to come up big in pressure situations. Clutch drive against Rice in the face of some offensive penalties that could have easily have prevented a field goal on that drive. The drive itself ate important clock when our defense was really struggling. And he has different tendencies than Preston. Part of the reason Preston struggled against OU and TCU was always looking for the big play and not just taking what was available. Jennings will take what is there in the short and midrange game. So he might do better in this environment. He certainly has the ability and the moxie and I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls it off.
But in big games, it is hard to pick against the QB who has already done it. And expecting a great performance from Jennings in his first career start in a conference championship game on the road is too much pressure to put on the guy. If we were playing against a team that had a bad run defense, and the QB was secondary, it would be different. But the QB is going to be a focal point in this game for both teams. I think this game comes down to turnovers, and Jennings throws two picks against a defense that took two away from both Harris and Hennigan and one from both JT Daniels and Dart. SMU fights hard, but Tulane wins 27-21.
Before the angry vetting starts, I hope I am wrong. But it is unrealistic to expect Jennings to just walk in and Dak Prescott this thing in his first start after the stud goes down. And if Jennings does struggle, it doesn't mean his career his over. Don't do what Texas did to Gilbert after the Alabama game. Tulane is just a really good team, we are on the road in a big game, and they have a very experienced very good QB. OU Preston was very different from Navy Preston. We can't expect Jennings to be fully developed in game one.
