early signing day analysis

[JasonB]

I'll go through position by position about where we sit on the roster and what we have left to add.

- QB - Aronson is the second highest rated QB on the roster. Honestly, he rates pretty close to Padilla, Luster, and Jennings except he had much better offers and a much better score from Rivals. Rivals ranks him as a top 25 QB; others have him in the 90s. Definitely a step up from Padilla, the only QB leaving so far. I would say from the analysts he is a "solid" recruit at the ACC level. That said, Lashlee has really been phenomenal in QB evaluation, so you have to trust him at this point. We have a starter who is ready to compete in the ACC as well as quality depth.

- RB - I'm going to count McFall here, even though he is a Rodrick Daniels type who might end up at slot WR. As a recruit, he falls in just barely behind LJ, Rooster, and Camar, with really the only difference that he isn't given a 4 star rating from Rivals. Really good recruit, and certainly ACC caliber. Well ahead of Gardner from a recruiting perspective. We lost Epton to the portal in the fall and then Lavine to graduation, so this is an upgrade from a talent perspective, although we certainly know what Lavine brought to the team the last two years. Again, we head into the ACC with a group that can compete at that level.

- WR - We lose one in Kerley, who wasn't one of our top recruits. Cozart hasn't formally signed yet, so we can't compare, but he is certainly a significantly higher regarded recruit if he does come in. If he signs, he would join Brinson, Hudson, Knox, and Dixon who are clearly ACC stud recruits, and then Daniels, Smith, and Lavender are all recruits who would be solid ACC recruits. This is a group that should be good enough to compete in the ACC.

- TE - We lost Matthews to the portal and HIlts to graduation. Might add a veteran blocking TE in the portal depending on how spring goes. Moore, Riordan, and Johnson should all be ready to contribute next season. Moore clearly looks the part. RJ will be one of the top players in the ACC heading into the season, and Moore and Riordan are at a recruiting level that they would be expected to contribute. As long as RJ stays healthy, this group should be competitive.

- OL - Nate Anderson was an absolute stud coming out of HS. On our roster, he is just behind PJ Williams in the list of recruits, and just ahead of Caleb Johnson. 6th place is Hyrin White, who we lose along with Waller (11) and Ervin (18). Large is between White and Clark in terms of quality recruit, so he is a solid add to the roster and certainly an ACC level recruit. What is interesting is Uter. Compared to everyone else that committed today, you would describe him as a "reach". But he is actually a better recruit than Sparks, Waller, Gill, Hickman, Perdue, Bryant, Ervin or Scott. It just shows you how much the level of recruit has upleveled, even before the ACC announcement. We have done a great job bringing in portal players, but I think the book is a little open on our OL evaluation out of HS. Scott looked like he has potential in fall camp, even though he was the lowest rated recruit. Uter is someone to keep an eye on when judging our ability to evaluate OL at the HS level. We know this position isn't finished in adding players, so I would say we are certainly upgrading this part of the roster this offseason. The OL as a whole was the best in the G5 this year, and they looked even better after Sparks started and Osborne replaced White. If Bryant comes back, you are looking at a second string of PJ - Anderson - Clark - Byrd - Johnson, which would be the best G5 OL in the country. This might not be the BEST OL in the ACC, but it is certainly ready to compete at that level.

- DE - This is incomplete because Harvey and Abor haven't signed yet. We lose a nice recruit (Wimberley) and a productive senior (Paul), but by the time we are done, the roster will have seen an upgrade. In a perfect world we might have added a HS DE, but with the logjam at this position, I understand why we couldn't attract a top talent. Roberts was the best G5 DE last year, and you would expect him to be good next season. Surely, one of Abiara, Samuels, Smith, and Cam are ready to step forward? Harvey will either start at Bandit or backup Roberts on the strong side. Abor is the talented wildcard. It will be interesting to see if they can dominate at the ACC level like they did this season, but we will be able to compete at a minimum.

- DT - We aren't done here, but let's talk about what has happened so far. We add Jefferson, who is the top rated player on the roster. We lost Wright to the portal, who is the second best DT. We also lost Frazier (4) to the portal, Levelston (7) to graduation, Miller (8) to graduation, and Chatman (10) to graduation. Levelston, Miller, and Chatman were clearly underrated when comparing their ratings to their productivity. Lockhart (5) certainly helps balance things out. Frazier in the portal stings, because I think he has a lot of potential. That said, Levelston, Miller, and Chatman were the guys in the rotation, and you have Jefferson and Lockhart replacing them. We need one more highly rated DT to come into the portal, which we supposedly have. If that is the case, the staff has done a great job rebuilding this position. This is the biggest unknown going into next year - we think we replaced experienced talent with experienced talent, but who knows how it gels until they get on the field in the spring.

- LB - To be honest, I have no idea who is leaving at this position. I know Adimora is done. Last year, we really had a thin group and got lucky that nobody was injured. I thought that Wilson and Walker were only one year players, but now I'm not sure anymore? Adimora was actually the top rated recruit at the position. In terms of the new players, Medlock is actually just behind him from a recruiting vantage point. Burns comes in third just barely ahead of the next newcomer, Booker. Kilgore is 5th ahead of Smith. Look, with Kilgore, Miyazono, and Wilson last year, the staff hit home runs and proved that they are excellent at evaluating talent at the position. All three of these guys are better recruits. This is certainly a recruiting talent upgrade on the roster and I am sure they are going to be fantastic. I would be very surprised if the group isn't ready for the ACC.

- CB - We added Nettles, who is our third highest rated guy at the position behind Rogers and Smoke. He is the highest rated CB we have pulled directly out of HS in a long, long time. Certainly projects to be a starter eventually in the ACC. We also pulled in Alex Rogers, who is our 5th best CB recruit on the roster, just behind AJ Davis (ahead of Mills, Muhammad, and Hall). We lose two that we know of, and both are our starters - Megginson and Woods (who were both lowly regarded coming out of HS). Of the 6 remaining on the roster, Smoke is ready to start. I think they would like to bring in someone from the portal as the other starter, but they also might wait to bring in someone after spring practice, to allow Rogers, AJ Davis, or Hall a chance to grab the starting spot. Hall is probably an example of a guy who would push for a starting spot eventually at the G5 level, but is a backup and special teams guy in the ACC. I think we did a good job on the HS side, but to get an "A" we need a transfer corner who is ready to battle for a starting spot. As it stands, this is the biggest open concern on the roster right now.

- S - With McGill coming back, we don't have any pressing needs at the position, we are just building the depth at the position for the future and replacing the spot that Spencer should have taken last year. The staff did a great job of doing that. Dotson rivals Chambers as the top S recruit on the roster. ESPN likes him more, and On3 likes Chambers more. Moses is about the same level of recruit that Spencer was, and would have been higher if Rivals didn't have such a low rating for him. Jaylen is also about the same level of recruit as Ahmaad Moses, who has been fantastic in his first two seasons. Again, safety is a position that I think the staff has earned a lot of trust with in their evaluations, and I think we have done a solid job here. This group as a whole is certainly ready for the ACC.

In summary, I think that as long as we add the two DE, a DT, and a CB as expected in the portal, the staff has done a great job closing holes while upgrading the overall depth of the roster ahead of our move to the ACC. While I'm not sure that we are taking a huge step forward like we did last season, I think we have prevented a step back while building better depth across the board and preparing the roster for the future.

While I recognize that Houston, UCF, and Cincy struggled with their transition last season, our roster is in a much better shape. Our total team talent this year on 247 was 714. Memphis was 626. Houston was 670, Cincy 663, and UCF 653. The 714 mark would have put us behind Clemson, Miami, UNC, FSU, and Louisville in the ACC, with GT, NC State, and Pitt just behind us. The strength of the recruiting class and the transfers should see our overall roster number tick up a little bit, building a little separation from the teams below us and getting us closer to Louisville for the top 5.

I certainly don't expect us to compete for the ACC title or a playoff spot in year 1. But I think with this recruiting class I am shifting my expectations from a "middle of the pack" finish to a "top half" finish next season. Our total team talent will be better than BYU, HCU, whomever we replace Vandy with, BC, Cal, Pitt, Duke, Stanford, and Virginia. TCU, FSU, and Louisville are the only teams on our schedule with more team talent than us. I'm not saying we are going to go 9-3 next season. But I am saying that we are going to have a better record than I thought we would, and finishing above .500 in league play seems probable.

[Topper]

Jason B how do you think we would fare next year had we been invited to join the Big 12 for 2024? I know that this question is of no important consequence, but with Arizona being their highest ranked team from this year I'm thinking that we would be fighting for a conference title. BTW I am extremely pleased that we are now part of the ACC rather than just another Texas team in the Big 12.

[JasonB]

After UT and OU leave, TCU has the most talent on their roster in the Big12. We would be second. SMU would compete in year 1 in that league.

Finding a QB means everything in terms of maximizing potential. That is what you saw with Arizona. Utah and K State always overperform compared to team talent because they find the right fits on defense and build very physical teams, so if they get decent QB production they become very good.

Talent wise, we are much better prepared for the jump than UH, UCF, or Cincy were.

[birddogger]

Where do yesterday's signings leave us as far as roster room? In other words, how many more can we sign before kickoff in 2024?

Also, can any one explain the interaction between NIL and scholarships? Could you basically have a team of highly-compensated walks-ons that would not affect the scholarship limit, so long as you meet the roster limit? TIA

[JasonB]

Where do yesterday's signings leave us as far as roster room? In other words, how many more can we sign before kickoff in 2024?

Also, can any one explain the interaction between NIL and scholarships? Could you basically have a team of highly-compensated walks-ons that would not affect the scholarship limit, so long as you meet the roster limit? TIA

Theoretically, yes, but at SMU that NIL payment would need to be pretty high to make up for not getting a football scholarship.

I am not sure what our numbers look like. It is difficult to know exactly who is staying and who is going. I think we have 21 spots that are opening with folks leaving, but not sure what the exact number is.