PF.com preview: SMU faces future ACC foe Boston College

[PonyPride]

PF.com preview: SMU faces future ACC foe Boston College in Fenway Bowl
Mustangs face Eagles seeking 12th win in 2023

Posted on 12/23/2023 by PonyFans.com

The SMU Mustangs have had a remarkable year: they went undefeated at home, suffered no setbacks in any game against an American Athletic Conference opponent and won the conference championship when they went to New Orleans and beat then-No. 17 Tulane, 26-14.

Now it’s the Mustangs (11-2) who are ranked No. 17 in the country; their 11 victories are the most for the program since the Ponies went 11-0-1 in 1982. With one more game to play, they have a chance to pick up their 12th victory of the year — a total last reached in 1935. Boston College is 32-123-1 all-time against opponents ranked in the top 25.

That one game, of course, is the Wasabi Fenway Bowl, which will be played at 10 a.m. (Central time) Dec. 28 against Boston College (6-6), which started the season with three losses (to Northern Illinois, Holy Cross and Louisville) in its first four games, followed by a five-game winning streak that included victories over Virginia, Army, Georgia Tech, Connecticut and Syracuse, before skidding down the stretch with consecutive losses to Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh and Miami. For what it’s worth, the Eagles’ 31-29 loss to Florida State was the closest margin of victory this season for the undefeated Seminoles; BC was one of just three teams to lose to FSU by fewer than 10 points.

Thanks to some lopsided losses (by 28 points to Louisville, 26 to Virginia Tech and 25 to Miami), the Eagles were outscored this year by an average of 29.5 to 25 points per game. BC leans heavily on the running game — in an era in which most teams rely more on the passing game, BC is something of an outlier: 147 of its 260 first downs have come on the ground, and the offense averages more rushing yards (194.3) per game than through the air (189.17); BC’s season high was 321 yards on the ground against Army. The Eagles’ average of 382.7 yards per game of total offense represents a marked improvement over 2022, when they managed 310.2 per game.

More than perhaps any SMU opponent this season, the Eagles’ offensive success is based on one player: quarterback Thomas Castellanos is a 5-10, 196-pound sophomore who transferred to Chestnut Hill from Central Florida. Castellanos has completed 178 of 312 passes this year for 2,146 yards, for a modest completion rate of 57.05 percent, and has thrown 13 interceptions along with his 15 touchdown passes.

But he also is the team’s leading rusher: even with more than 100 yards lost because of quarterback sacks, Castellanos leads the Eagles’ offense in carries (194), rushing yards (957) and touchdowns (11); he averages 4.9 yards per carry and a team-leading 79.75 yards per game — numbers that would be significantly higher if sacks were not included. He has the speed to run away from defenders, starts and stops exceptionally quickly and can corkscrew would-be tacklers into the ground by changing directions as quickly as any ball carrier the Mustangs have seen all season. His 957 rushing yards are the third-most in the country by a quarterback, and the 44th-highest total among all rushers.

The other dangerous weapon in the rushing game is running back Kye Robichaux, a 6-foot, 210-pound junior who transferred to BC after two seasons at Western Kentucky, who has 150 carries for 691 yards (4.6 yards per carry). The team’s power back has seven rushing touchdowns and has lost only 11 yards in 10 games this season.

The top receiving threat is Lewis Bond, a 5-11, 188-pound redshirt sophomore receiver with speed and power who plays all three receiver positions for the Eagles and is a key player in the screen passing game. He has 48 receptions for 611 yards and seven scores. He also is the team’s most dangerous punt returner (12.2 yards per return) and has a pair of kickoff returns, the longer covering 22 yards. Bond is one of just six ACC receivers this season with at least 45 receptions, 600 receiving yards and seven touchdown catches.

Dino Tomlin is a 5-11, 182-pound redshirt senior from Pittsburgh — yes, he’s the son of the Steelers’ head coach — who has caught 24 passes for 312 yards (13.0 yards per reception), while 5-10, 174-pound graduate receiver Ryan O’Keefe has 23 catches for 235 yards and a score. No other Eagle has caught more than a dozen passes this season.

The success of every offense is dictated by the performance of the offensive line, and the Boston College line is outstanding; the matchup between BC’s blockers and SMU’s defensive line likely will be the most important subplot in Thursday’s game. It’s no surprise that Castellanos likes to run to his right: guard Christian Mahogany (6-3, 322) was the only Eagle to earn first-team All-ACC honors on offense and is widely projected to be selected in the middle rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft. Redshirt junior Ozzy Trapilo is a mountain (6-8, 313) at right tackle who earned second-team All-ACC accolades. Left tackle Logan Taylor (6-7, 308) and left guard Kyle Hergel (6-2, 315) earned Honorable Mention all-conference nods, giving the Eagles four blockers honored by ACC coaches.

The BC defense operates out of a 4-3 as its base formation. Senior Cam Horsley (6-3, 315), an Honorable Mention All-ACC honoree, is the anchor in the middle of the line, between defensive ends Neto Okpala (6-0, 251) on the right and defensive tackle George Rooks (6-4, 280) and defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku (6-2, 251) on the left.

The Eagles have had limited success getting to opposing quarterbacks this season, with just 12 sacks in 12 games. Okpala, Ezeiruaku and backup defensive end Shitta Sillah (6-4, 253) are the only BC defenders with two sacks; Rooks has 1.5.

Middle linebacker Vinny DePalma leads the Eagles with 87 tackles in 12 games, including 12 in the opener against Northern Illinois, en route to third-team All-ACC recognition by the league’s coaches. Senior WLB Kam Arnold (6-1, 232) has made 60 in 2023 — third-highest on the team — along with three pass breakups and a forced fumble. Redshirt freshman SLB Sione Hala (6-1, 217) is young but very fast; seven of his 24 tackles, including a tackle for loss, came against Louisville.

Elijah Jones is a big (6-2, 184), physical cornerback and arguably the team’s best defensive player, who won ACC Defensive Player of the Week honors twice this season and was the only Eagle to earn first-team All-ACC honors on defense. But he was lost for the season in November, and since his departure from the lineup, BC opponents have taken to the air often and effectively. Jones had more interceptions (five) than the rest of the Eagles’ defense, which collected just three picks all season.

In Jones’ absence, sophomore Amari Jackson (5-10, 188) became the team’s top cornerback. He has 36 tackles and an interception. The rest of the secondary has been something of a revolving door, with players in and out of the lineup as fifth-year head coach Jeff Hafley and co-defensive coordinator/defensive backs coach Aazaar Abdul-Rahim mix and match in pursuit of the most effective matchups each week.

Kicker Liam Connor has been effective, converting 10 of 12 field goal attempts, while the Eagles have used two punters: Sam Candotti has averaged 38.13 yards on 31 punts this year, while Lauren DiLoreto has averaged 37.47 yards on 19 punts. The Eagles have not had a field goal or punt blocked, and kickoff specialist Luca Lombardo has accounted for 12 touchbacks.

Hafley and his staff have done a good job helping their team play with more discipline as the season has gone along: in each of the first three games, Boston College was called for 10 or more penalties, and somehow gave Florida State its biggest scare of the season despite being flagged 18 times in the game. Since then, however, the Eagles have cut down on their infractions, getting called for eight in the loss to Pitt and seven in the loss to Louisville.

The Mustangs and Eagles, of course, will become conference foes next year when the Mustangs move to the ACC the teams will meet four times over the next six seasons, starting with a 2024 matchup at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.

SMU won the only previous matchup against Boston College, 31-29, in 1986. BC is 14-13 all-time in bowl games; the Fenway Bowl marks the team’s 30th bowl appearance. The Eagles were invited to play in the 2021 Military Bowl that was cancelled because of covid-19 protocols.

The trip to Fenway Park is a first for the Mustangs, but that’s not the case for Boston College, which played at the Boston Red Sox’ home part for the majority of 21 seasons from 1936-45 and again in 1953-56. The Eagles last played there — as the road team — against Connecticut in 2017. The last time BC played in a bowl game, the Eagles lost, 38-6, to Cincinnati.

Trivia time: the Eagles won the first game in program history, 4-0, over something called St. John’s Literary Institute in 1893. No, that wasn’t the über-rare game with two safeties; touchdowns were worth four points at the time.

[crazy horse]

I watched some highlights of their games this weekend. The QB seems to be their very best weapon. He turns broken plays into 1st downs primarily with his feet. Although he can beat you through the air as well. We need to swarm, and make him feel quite uncomfortable - like Pratt. We do that, and SMU cruises to a Wasabi Bowl win!

[SMU93]

These previews have been fantastic all season.

Am I oversimplifying to think it boils down to “contain the QB and the Ponies win”? Interested to see how Symons draws this up … maybe leave a fast LB (Kobe Wilson?) or safety (Isaiah Nwokobia?) in there as a spy to chase Castellanos?

BEAT BOSTON COLLEGE!

[redpony]

lookiing forward to Jason's analysis as well.

[PerunaPunch]

Let me second, or third.... JasonB, we are SUPER grateful for your reviews, which have been amazingly insightful. interesting and accurate reads. Thanks for contributing so much to the community here.