.To start, let's walk through the opt outs (at least the ones I am aware of) on the SMU side:
- Stephen Wright - talented, but didn't play
- Jovani Borbon - LS - this is going to be interesting, because replacing a long snapper is NOT an easy thing to do.
BC Opt outs:
- Emmett Morehead, QB - Backup QB, saw limited time in mop up duty after starting a couple of games last season. Something to watch if Castellanos goes out.
- Jaden Williams, WR - played in just about every game, but only for a handful of plays. Not a big loss.
- Cam Barfield, RB - very limited playing time, depth piece.
- Xavier Coleman, RB - even less PT than Barfield
- Andre HInes, RB - even less PT than Coleman
- Patrick Garwo, RB - 4th leading rusher (3rd leading RB). This one hits their depth a bit, and the others leaving would have replaced him. So BC only has two RBs going into the game.
- Joshua Hardy, DE - DNP
- Jason Scott, CB - DNP
- Shitta Sillah, DE - Depth piece, saw the 6th most snaps at DE for them. Won't impact the game.
- Alex Washington, S - Only saw a handful of snaps.
So, really the biggest impact is on the BC depth at RB, for the opt outs that I am currently aware of.
- When SMU is on offense, the BC defense just isn't very good. They struggle against both the run and the pass.
- BC will line up and play a 4-2-5 most of the time.
- On the DL, they have one really good player in Ezeiruaku, and then one that really struggles in Okpala. Okpala struggles against both the run and the pass. Inside, they have Horsley who is really good at one tackle, and then Rooks who struggles against both the run and the pass. One stat that stands out is that BC has only generated 129 pressures on the season. SMU, on the other hand generated 280. Their pass rush is pretty anemic. If Preston was playing, he would be able to sit in the pocket and have all day to pick them apart. It will be interesting to see how Jennings does in a much less chaotic pocket than he had to deal with against Tulane. I would expect SMU to really control the line of scrimmage in both the running and passing games.
- Another factor to watch is that DePalma and Arnold are two pretty good LBs, but they don't rotate much at all. If SMU plays at a high tempo, the lack of rotation is really going to hit them at the end of each halves. I would keep an eye out here - do they account for Jennings running by having one spy on Jennings, which is going to force the other to cover Maryland? That won't work out very well. It may mean that BC will play a good amount of zone in the game.
- At corner, Elijah Jones is a STUD. He will lock down whomever he covers. He spent a little time in the slot, but the vast majority of his snaps are on the outside. The challenge is we don't know if he was playing. He was their best player through week 10 and then missed the rest of the year for "undisclosed reasons" and it was later confirmed to not be injury related. Will he be back for the bowl? Amari Jackson is the other corner, and he is pretty solid. Clearly not at the level of Elijah Jones, but he is good enough that teams don't pick on him. Cheeks started the season out playing more nickel corner, but after Jones sat, he moved to the other outside corner, and he is the guy to target. Clinkscales is the guy who covered the slot after Cheeks went outside, and really struggled in coverage, so in the last game of the season, Max Tucker played outside corner and Cheeks and Clinkscales rotated in the slot. In short, if Jones isn't playing, the corners are a weak point to take advantage of.
- At safety, Batson and Johnson rotate at FS. Batson was the clear starter at the beginning of the season, but he has really struggled this year both in run support and in the passing game. Johnson is better against the run. Pupel was the starter at SS at the start of the season, and he too has seen his PT drop with Hala stepping in. Pupel they like to play around with, and they will line him up near the line to try and pressure the QB and add another player in the box against the run. he really struggles in coverage, though. Hala has done better in coverage, but they use him as more of a standard strong safety.
- I expect that we will see SMU come out and try and establish the running game against BC. We should have an advantage on the line, and BC struggles to stop the run unless they commit numbers. Once they commit, RJ, Daniels, and Bailey are going to be running free all over the middle of the field. Occasional deep shots on the outside. But with the rain in the forecast, I bet this is a run-heavy offense and then take advantage of RJ and the slot WR in the medium passing game with Jennings scrambling from time to time.
- On the other side of the field, Castellanos is the guy. He is a wonderful runner with over 1000 yards running. He has a surprising amount of yards after contact, and he also makes players miss.
He scrambles quite a bit out of pass calls, but the vast majority of his yards are from designed running plays. If rain is in play, I bet they run him a lot during the game, and the running game will be the focus of the whole offense. With Garwo out, Robichaux and Broom are their two running backs. They are both solid, but Castellanos is the playmaker. This is going to be a very physical game up front. Of course, SMU has one of the best defensive lines in the country. We saw it against OU, we saw it against Navy, and we saw it against Tulane. I love this matchup for the SMU defense. The running QB can be a problem at times, but SMU has absolutely dominated run-first teams this season.
- Castellanos hasn't been nearly as effective in the passing game. He throws a ton of picks, especially when he has to throw the ball down the field. The completion rate on deep balls and the medium passing game is also really low. If you can stop the BC running game and get them behind the chains, BC will really struggle. Castellanos is at his best in the short passing game. Castellans really struggled the last 3 games of the season with 3 TDs and 6 picks.
- What is interesting about all of that, is that the BC OL actually grades out really well in pass blocking. They haven't allowed many hurries or sacks on the season. Part of that is because they don't throw the ball as much and because Castellanos will take off pretty quickly. But They don't allow many hurries or sacks at all. This is going to be a focus on the game - SMU is going to want to stop the run, and you want to play corners tight because Castellanos struggles in the medium to deep passing game. But with every other game this season, SMU will dominate on the defensive line and generate pressures and sacks, so you don't have to cover that long. That may not happen in this game. It may be more like what we saw against Memphis with their great OL. The question is going to be whether Castellanos can hurt SMU in the air.
- Bond is their best receiver, and they will move him around both outside and in the slot. Nickel corner has been a strength of SMU all year, so they might play him more outside. Tomlin is their other slot WR and he has the third most yards on the team, so this becomes a big focus. Bond and Tomlin will both get the quick pass in space or a pop pass and get a ton of yards on YAC. Griffin is the deep ball threat, but as I mentioned before, they struggle to throw the ball deep.
Overall, I think SMU is going to amped up to play this game. We want to send a message to the ACC about our ability to compete next season. BC, on the other hand, lost the last three games of the regular season. While they kept it close against FSU early in the year, they got beat pretty bad by Louisville and Miami, who were the other good teams on the schedule. It might be a bit of a slog - in the baseball stadium, the grass on the infield won't be great and I bet the grass is a lot thicker all over the field which is going to negate the speed advantages SMU has at skill positions. I also think that with an inexperienced QB, SMU might struggle in the redzone like we did against Tulane. But I really like SMU's ability to stop the run against BC, as well as the ability of SMU to run against their defense. SMU has to settle for FGs, and will turn the ball over at least once, which will keep the score down, but in the end I'll take SMU to win, 30 -10.
