Scouting the toads

[The XtC]

TCU has been a somewhat inconsistent team this year, They opened with a 30 point blow out of UTA, but in their next game allowed Shawnee state to rally and turn what should have been a blowout into a close game. TCU beat Texas Tech decisively, but then dropped a winnable game against Old Dominion, on their homecourt. The frogs trailed both North Texas and FSU at halftime, but staged strong second half rallies to come from behind.
This is what happens when a team relies almost entirely on their guards for their offense. Some nights jump shooters will be cold and if you dont have an interior offense to go to, scoring will a problem. TCU has an excellent backcourt, with plenty of depth. They're fast, excellent drivers on offense, and aggressive defenders, but even their best shooter, Marcus Shropshire, occasionally has a cold game. Their best offensive threat in the paint was forward Chudi Chinweze, a phenomenal athlete who played way above the rim, Chinweze was shooting 59% from the floor (most of his shots are dunks) and lead the frogs in rebounding, before injuring his knee in the Kansas game. From what I have heard, the injury is season ending. The loss of Chinweze leaves TCU with just 3 real interior players, Femi Ibikunle, Marcus Sloan, and Judson Stubbs. Between the 3 of them they average 17 points and 15 rebounds per game. Sloan and Ibikunle are the starters, but Stubbs is the most productive of the three, with 8.7 points per game.

Even without Chinweze, depth is one of TCU's major strengths. They used 14 players in their first 5 games, and they have enough backcourt depth to run with anyone. Corey Valsin is a very athletic forward with a lot of similarities to Chinweze, but he apparently has been in the coaches doghouse recently and didnt play in the Kansas or FSU games. If he gets back in the coaches good graces, he could pick up the some of the minutes Chinweze used to play, but thats only speculation on my part.

TCU's defense has improved greatly since the last time they played SMU. In Neil Dougherty's first season as head coach, opposing teams scored at will in the paint. Ibikunle may be somewhat lost on offense, but at the other end he is the type of strong physical defender that TCU has needed. The Frogs play very agressive man-to-man defense, their guards play very tight on the offensive player, particularly the ballhandler. They dont seem to worry about fouls, their backcourt has enough depth that its not really a concern, and that lets them play very aggressively. TCU has forced 123 turnovers so far, (roughly 18 per game) and they rely heavily on steals to trigger their transition offense. The frogs will trap sometimes in the halfcourt, but mostly they stay with strict man-to-man, and they dont switch on screens very often, preferring to fight their way through a screen rather than switch and potentially wind up with a mismatch. Against Old Dominion I saw TCU use a 2-3 zone in response to a much taller team that was beating them in the frontcourt, but that left Old Dominions guards open beyond the 3-point arc, and after a couple of long bombs the frogs never went back to the zone.

TCU has definitely demonstrated an ability to play at a high level, and their backcourt is fast, athletic and deep. But they have also been inconsistent, they're coming off an emotional loss to Kansas, and one of their best players is lost for the year. I wont be surprised if this game winds up either way, it depends on TCU's state of mind, and if their perimeter shots are falling. Thats something we wont know until the game gets started.

One last note about SMU. Many people have said that this years offense looks alot like Dements old offense, and they're right. so far, its mostly been the same sets that Dement and Kelvin Sampson use. As Derrick Roberts becomes more integrated into the offense, we should see some different strategies, including using Derrick at the point and moving Hopkins off the ball. Thats what I've seen. Must go now, have to get on the bus to FW.

[Hoop Fan]

I'm pretty sure we will see TCU's A game today, as opposed to their flat performances. I'm sure they want revenge from two years ago and they probably gained some confidence at Kansas. We better be ready to play and tough minded today.

[The XtC]

We didnt get TCU's A game, didnt even get their B game. The frogs came out and laid an egg, and the disgusting part is that the egg hit us right in the face. TCU came out cold as ice, they were primed and ready for an upset. But we shot so poorly and made so many unforced turnovers, we couldnt take advantage. Really, really dissapointing, no team can afford to let opportunities like this get away. This was a game where our seniors should have asserted themselves, but instead they barely avoided embarrassment. All I can do is shake my head, this was really frustrating.

As a team we shot 8/18 from the free throw line. Our (Hoop Fan) wager was made before Simpson hit his last 2, so at that time we were 6/16 or 37.5% from the line. Thats just over 35%, so you owe me a soda. I'll take a diet coke at the Baylor game.

The frogs are going to miss Chinweze when they get to C-USA. The rest of their OOC schedule isnt too harsh, but the team I saw yesterday would get crushed by Memphis and Louisville, and probably have a hard time with Houston. The Frogs are capable of playing better, but apparently not consistently. I wont be surprised if there a few upset wins mixed in with a few unexpected losses before they are done.

[Hoop Fan]

Diet Coke it is. I am glad to have lost that bet. Good thing we got "hot" in the second half, I do think the first half shooting was much worse.

And TCU certainly didnt play well. Like you said, they missed Chinweze but we still couldn't capitalize. That was a pretty bad basketball game yesterday. Both teams made mistake after mistake, but SMU was simply atrocious besides a couple 2-3 minute spurts midway through the first half and to start the second half.

Oh well, I still gotta believe that sooner or later some pride and determination will kick in.