TCU

[Balatro Diabolus Ex]

The TCU Horned Frogs are 4-3 this season, with their losses coming at Arizona State, at Nebraska, and at home this past weekend against Louisiana Tech. Sophomore guard Ronnie Moss leads TCU in scoring with 19 points per game, and also in assists with 7 per contest. Moss is strong and athletic enough to drive the lane and take the ball directly to the basket or dish it off, but he gets the majority of his points from outside the 3-point line, where he hits 44% of his shots. He’s actually more accurate from outside the arc than from closer in, where he hits 42% overall. Senior forward Edvin Ruzgas, 2nd on the team in scoring, also makes his living outside the arc. Ruzgas averages 10 field goal attempts per game, and 6 will be from long range where he connects on 41%. Center Zvonko Buljan provides the Frogs with a strong inside presence, averaging 13 points and 10.7 rebounds per game, but even Buljan will put up a couple of shots from 3 point range. Outside the arc is where the Frogs like to live, it’s a guarantee that they will put up at least 20 shots from 3-point range in every contest.

Sophomore forward Kevin Butler starts in the frontcourt with Buljan and Ruzgas, but isn’t a real threat at the offensive end. Butler is an undersized (6’5”) power forward who plays hard nosed defense and crashes the boards for his share of rebounds, but on the offensive end he’s an afterthought. He sets screens and fights for loose balls, and does all the dirty work, but when he gets the ball on offense the first thing he’ll do is look for someone to pass it to. Butler averages 6 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, and is the only TCU player who hasn’t attempted at least 1 3-point shot this season. He had a career high 13 points in last weeks overtime win against Texas State, and also his first career double-double with 11 rebounds.

Senior Keion Mitchem and Junior Greg Hill have both started at guard, opposite Moss, and it looks like Hill is pulling away from Mitchem in the battle for court time. Hill is bigger and stronger than Mitchem, and may be a better defender, but he is the weak link amongst their shooters. Unlike the Frogs other guards Hill is unreliable from long range, hitting just 24% of his 3-point shots. If you have to sacrifice and leave someone open in order to keep Moss and Ruzgas covered, make it Hill, statistically letting him shoot is a better option that Moss or Ruzgas.

Freshman Garlon Green is the only other player getting consistent minutes off the bench. Green is a 6’7” wing who has to play inside sometimes out of necessity. Green was a considered a high caliber recruit, in part because his older brother was playing for the Mavericks, and was ranked by some as one of the top-10 high school players in Texas last year. His freshman year in college has been a roller coaster so far, he’s turned in a couple of strong performances, 11 points and 6 boards against Nebraska and 18 points 8 rebounds against Texas State, but has also disappeared at times. Against La. Tech he played 21 minutes but did not score, and finished with 3 rebounds.

TCU would like to get more playing time out of 6’9” freshman Nikolas Cerina, but the kid cant stay out of foul trouble. Against Nebraska he fouled out in just 5 minutes of court time, 0 points, 0 rebounds, 5 fouls in 5 minutes. In the games I’ve seen, Cerina hasn’t been very smart with his fouls, he reaches in a lot on defense, and commits minor but obvious fouls. During the Arizona State game I saw him reach over the back of the man he was guarding 3 times, and each time he reacted like he didn’t understand why they were calling a foul on him. The Frogs need Cerina to stay in the game, because after Buljan he’s the only legitimate size they have. If Buljan and Cerina are both out, then Garlon Green is the tallest player TCU has.

This brings up TCU’s biggest weakness, they have no depth, particularly in the post. They basically use 7 players for 85% of the game, with Cerina getting as many minutes as he can before getting in foul trouble. Three players score the majority of their points. Moss, Ruzgas and Buljan average 47 points per game, and the rest of the team combined averages 30. TCU plays a physical game, but they cant afford to get into foul trouble, because if 2 of their big 3 are sitting down, they cant score. The last thing that TCU wants is a closely officiated game with lots of fouls called. Oddly, their best perimeter shooters are weak at the free throw line, where Moss is 64% and Ruzgas is 54%.

From my perspective, TCU has played well at times this year, but is still beatable. SMU cant sit back in a zone against the Frogs, because their shooters will bomb you to death. Play man-to-man on defense, sag off of Hill if you need to give help inside. On offense, let your guards go right at the defense, drive hard, try to draw fouls. TCU plays physical, so don’t back off, give it right back, SMU can win a war of attrition.

Jim Christian is in just his 2nd year as head coach, but has already almost completely turned over the roster. Keion Mitchem is the only player left who was recruited by the previous coach. Most coaches want their own players on the roster as soon as possible, but I think Christian may have moved a little too fast. The roster is thin because they have a couple of transfers sitting out and a couple of injuries, and now they are having to rely on inexperienced players, and guys who have not spent a lot of time playing together. Time will eventually resolve those issues, but right now it shows sometimes when the Frogs don’t look completely comfortable with each other. Specifically I’m referring to the Arizona State game, when TCU struggled on offense. Several of the players acted like they didn’t even want to look at the basket, they just wanted to get the ball to Moss and let him go 1-on-1 with his defender. In time that will work itself out, but for now I think Christian moved too fast in trying to make over his roster.

[PonyDoh]

These write-ups, before each game, are amazing. Many thanks

[Balatro Diabolus Ex]

Welcome

[papawasamustang]

Thanks for the pre-game report.
U really have done a good job breakin down the Frogs.
Lookin forward to being @ Moody tonight.

[therack]

Dude, you are doing as good (if not better) job as our assistants coaches do for the scouting reports... It's amazing how detailed you're... You could easily forward this to one of the coaches!!! Great job...

[mrydel]

He makes a good pot of gumbo too!

[SMU89]

Thanks for the write-up / information.

[Pony_Fan]

Thanks, great job. Keep it coming!