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Completely OT: Need an opinion...

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Re: Completely OT: Need an opinion...

Postby leopold » Fri Sep 05, 2014 1:01 pm

I have that book at home, and while I enjoyed it - and think the author made some very good points overall - I didn't agree with his reasoning. I don't have it in front of me, but his numbers weren't all that great and all the stats in the world don't mean much without context. I'd have to reread it to better argue against it, but I just remember genuinely not being impressed that much with it.

As far as the SEC is concerned, the reason why the SEC is considered the best is simple:

The SEC wins the nationally important games that matters. Vanderbilt losing to Temple or Kentucky losing to Louisville doesn't matter. When either nationally or locally relevant games come around, when the lights go on and the cameras come into focus, the SEC puts on its war face and goes out and wins. Period. The fact that Wisconsin blew it, or LSU got lucky doesn't matter - whoever wins gets last say. It took the rest of the country what? 8? tries to beat them in the NC game? Every conference had a shot, including an undefeated Notre Dame team that ABSOLUTELY deserved to be there, and yet it took the rest of college football almost a decade to beat the SEC champ in post-season play. In opening games that matter - Michigan-Alabama, LSU-Wisconsin, UGA-Clemson - the season team usually wins, in many cases dominates. In in-state rivalry games that should have been closer the SEC has dominated lately - I think South Carolina has won the last 5 against Clemson, same with UGA over Tech, and how many did Florida win against FSU before the wheels fell off due to injuries and FSU beat them? The SEC has consistently won when it matters, and that's why they are considered dominant, true or not.
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Re: Completely OT: Need an opinion...

Postby ericdickerson4life » Fri Sep 05, 2014 1:35 pm

The author is correct on the simple matter that we are told, from week one, how great certain teams are. If you listened to the commentary running up to the Wis vs. LSU game it was consistently Wis. has to win or they are out of playoff hunt. And LSU can lose and still get in due to their schedule. How in the hell do they know how good teams are going to be A) prior to the kickoff of a season and B) after 1 game?! Why does Wis. automatically get penalized and LSU would get a pass? And all the cross conference games the SEC plays in seem to be essentially home games played in the south.

Tell me how the SEC does not have an advantage when before a game is played they have multiple teams ranked in the top 10, 25 etc. It is a self fulfilling prophecy as it doesn't matter which team wins the conference. Since we penciled them in at the beginning as the best, whoever wins that league is the best. No questions can be asked. Literally the only way an SEC won't make the playoffs is if they all have 3 losses. Even then I'm not sure. I know, I know it means the conference was super deep and tough that year. I get it, there is no argument as to why the SEC shouldn't be in a playoff situation.

Why can't the polls wait to come out in say week 4-5? And the fact that ESPN has a vested interest in the SEC succeeding DOES matter. If you think ESPN is completely neutral you are nuts.
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Re: Completely OT: Need an opinion...

Postby Stallion » Fri Sep 05, 2014 2:22 pm

Its simply a matter of an overwhelming talent advantage. A team in the Top 25 in recruiting might be 11th in SEC. (Actually I guess it was 10 in Top 25 and Arkansas at 29 last year). SEC had 7 of Top 11 recruiting classes last year. They play each other and beat each other up. They've proved they've deserved the high rankings and if it weren't for the Undergraduate Draft Alabama would have won a 3rd National Championship. Alabama is averaging 8-9 NFL Draftees per year and most never make it to their Senior year. Think about that-at anyone time most players on Alabama's starting lineup are likely to end up in the NFL Draft sooner or later
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Re: Completely OT: Need an opinion...

Postby max the wonder dog » Fri Sep 05, 2014 2:37 pm

Stallion wrote:Its simply a matter of an overwhelming talent advantage. A team in the Top 25 in recruiting might be 11th in SEC. (Actually I guess it was 10 in Top 25 and Arkansas at 29 last year). SEC had 7 of Top 11 recruiting classes last year. They play each other and beat each other up. They've proved they've deserved the high rankings and if it weren't for the Undergraduate Draft Alabama would have won a 3rd National Championship. Alabama is averaging 8-9 NFL Draftees per year and most never make it to their Senior year. Think about that-at anyone time most players on Alabama's starting lineup are likely to end up in the NFL Draft sooner or later


That would be 3rd STRAIGHT National Championship, which I know you know.
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Re: Completely OT: Need an opinion...

Postby OhioBrownFan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 2:59 pm

Stallion wrote:Its simply a matter of an overwhelming talent advantage. A team in the Top 25 in recruiting might be 11th in SEC. (Actually I guess it was 10 in Top 25 and Arkansas at 29 last year). SEC had 7 of Top 11 recruiting classes last year. They play each other and beat each other up. They've proved they've deserved the high rankings and if it weren't for the Undergraduate Draft Alabama would have won a 3rd National Championship. Alabama is averaging 8-9 NFL Draftees per year and most never make it to their Senior year. Think about that-at anyone time most players on Alabama's starting lineup are likely to end up in the NFL Draft sooner or later

I get that...but just last year I watched a Tennessee team get bent over by 50 against Oregon only to come back and knock off an "SEC Power" in #11 South Carolina 4 weeks later...how is that possible? That'd be like Oklahoma losing to Kansas in football.

I also think there's bias in the recruiting rankings to some extent. You're not going to convince me that the State of Texas no longer plays quality football because right now, Rivals has 5 SEC states with better "talent" in the 2016 R250 than Texas. I had no idea Lousiana is that much better quality football than what Texas produces because according to Rivals and ESPN, it is. Or that Cal somehow isn't producing near the quality of prospects of SEC states either.

I agree that the top of the SEC is as good, if not better than anyone in the country, what I don't get is why every other good team outside the conference is marginalized because it's not in the SEC...that's my complaint.
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Re: Completely OT: Need an opinion...

Postby Stallion » Fri Sep 05, 2014 3:32 pm

I had to check that out-because what you are describing would be an historical first to have 5 teams ahead of Texas in the Top 250

Did you mean 2015-you said 2016. I don't think the 2016 class is fully rated yet. Its easier to rate BB Classes nationally in future years because they compete against each other in Tournaments

But in current recruiting year 2015-its pretty much within the realm of vexpectations:

Florida 37
Texas 34
Georgia 26
Louisiana 12
Virginia 11
Alabama 10
North Carolina 9
Tennessee 7
Mississippi 6 (that seems a tad low)
South Carolina 4
Arkansas 4
Kentucky 2 (see my posts where I point out why Louisville is always recruiting Florida)

But it is interesting that in 2015 Rivals doesn't really respect the State of Texas because they have few in Top 50-75. That could because they haven't fully upgraded the Class-we'll see.

Oregon has outrecruited both South Carolina (by a smaller margin) and Tennessee. My only explanation is that playing on the road before 100,000 ain't exactly easy especially when you've 8 or is it 9 games every year against tough SEC opponents. Everybody has Top 25 talent. I find it instructive that teams hit with injuries can go from the top to the bottom real quick in the SEC-see Auburn in 2013 and then 2014. Florida and Georgia are other programs than can go from the top of the SEC to the bottom real quick depending on their injuries. Football is a much more physical game than BB so staying healthy and enduring the grind has a big effect on SEC standings.
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Re: Completely OT: Need an opinion...

Postby OhioBrownFan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 3:48 pm

Stallion wrote:I had to check that out-because what you are describing would be an historical first to have 5 teams ahead of Texas in the Top 250

Did you mean 2015-you said 2016. I don't think the 2016 class is fully rated yet. Its easier to rate BB Classes nationally in future years because they compete against each other in Tournaments

But in current recruiting year 2015-its pretty much within the realm of vexpectations:

Florida 37
Texas 34
Georgia 26
Louisiana 12
Virginia 11
Alabama 10
North Carolina 9
Tennessee 7
Mississippi 6 (that seems a tad low)
South Carolina 4
Arkansas 4
Kentucky 2 (see my posts where I point out why Louisville is always recruiting Florida)

But it is interesting that in 2015 Rivals doesn't really respect the State of Texas because they have few in Top 50-75. That could because they haven't fully upgraded the Class-we'll see.

Oregon has outrecruited both South Carolina (by a smaller margin) and Tennessee. My only explanation is that playing on the road before 100,000 ain't exactly easy especially when you've 8 or is it 9 games every year against tough SEC opponents. Everybody has Top 25 talent. I find it instructive that teams hit with injuries can go from the top to the bottom real quick in the SEC-see Auburn in 2013 and then 2014. Florida and Georgia are other programs than can go from the top of the SEC to the bottom real quick depending on their injuries. Football is a much more physical game than BB so staying healthy and enduring the grind has a big effect on SEC standings.

No 2016. I'm friends with many of the national analysts and remember this being brought up in one of our discussions. I said something along the lines of how does Georgia and Louisiana have more R100 prospects in the initial 2016 rankings than Texas and California. I can't remember the exact numbers but it was disproportionate to say the least when talking population and quality of football being played. It was nuts to be exact and certainly biased. I don't have the time right now to go through and dig up the numbers again because I'm off to Kentucky but I can over the weekend at some point hopefully.
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Re: Completely OT: Need an opinion...

Postby Stallion » Fri Sep 05, 2014 4:12 pm

the 2016 Class is simply incomplete. I wouldn't waste the time analyzing it because its historically impossible. Those guys won't be freshman for 2 more years and many might not of yet played more than 1 high school game of their careers. BB recruiting is uniquely different in that respect where top national players are identified earlier at national tournaments
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Re: Completely OT: Need an opinion...

Postby Smerkins » Fri Sep 05, 2014 4:16 pm

I'm not sure why I feel this way but I find B10 football really boring.
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Re: Completely OT: Need an opinion...

Postby Stallion » Fri Sep 05, 2014 4:25 pm

BTW about 162 recruits off the Top 250 come from the states in my calculations so if you believe Rivals-some may not-its overwhelming proof of the superiority of Southern football athletes. Big 10 would have only a fraction of recruits as compared to the South
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Re: Completely OT: Need an opinion...

Postby floridianstang » Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:33 pm

Smerkins wrote:I'm not sure why I feel this way but I find B10 football really boring.


Because it is lol
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Re: Completely OT: Need an opinion...

Postby sadderbudweiser » Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:20 pm

They let Rutgers in. 'huff said.
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Re: Completely OT: Need an opinion...

Postby CoxMustangFan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:58 pm

sadderbudweiser wrote:They let Rutgers in. 'huff said.


Actually a slick money move.
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Re: Completely OT: Need an opinion...

Postby LA_Mustang » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:38 pm

Rutgers was all about getting the NJ/NY market.

I'd rank the BIG 2nd in hoops (behind the ACC) and 4th in football (behind the SEC, Big XII and PAC12).
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Re: Completely OT: Need an opinion...

Postby Zman89 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:10 pm

floridianstang wrote:
Smerkins wrote:I'm not sure why I feel this way but I find B10 football really boring.


Because it is lol

Being a native born Floridian living in Indiana watching B10 football is a real yawner.
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