Can we beat Rice this year?

[boulevard bum]

I know we have to have some confidence going after an OT win over a decent Nevada team but isn't Rice having an above average season? I like to think we're coming off a pretty impressive homestand but some did not think we were impressive at all against Fresno. I'm not saying I think we will lose because I don't. I want to know what you think though.

[Pony_Fan]

Reminder folks - this game is on TV on FSSW

A) We are a TERRIBLE road team
B) Rice is a good team this year and have some good wins - they are coming off an @asswhipping at UTEP and a great win at BState. Also, they only lost to Fresno by 1pt.
C) I think Mance (16pts/game) and Harris will light it up against the Pony D
D) I'd still love to see Hopkins pass (assist) like he did in HS.

I think Rice is too strong for the Ponies
this year away from Moody.

Prediction
Rice 84
SMU 71

[This message has been edited by Pony_Fan (edited 01-21-2003).]

[boulevard bum]

That's harsh...we all know it will be a close game. It's an instate rivalry and Rice is no better at home than they are on the road. I don't respect Boise State just yet. I'm going to give them a few more games. I'll give Rice credit for the Fresno game, but I think Fresno may have had a bad game. Rice without question had a much easier out of conference schedule featuring St. Edwards, Lamar, Louisiana College, Navy and Texas Pan American all of which I don't believe should even count as wins. The game will be close. I never go into a game thinking that we'll lose but I think you may be right about Rice being too much for us this year. I don't think Rice is as good as advertised but as bad as we are on the road I don't see us winning either. I hope we will be pleasantly surprised.

[Pony_Fan]

BB,
It's just that this team hasn't given me any evidence they can play tough/gritty on the road. I haven't seen them play but Boise State beat a decent TU team...I'd give them a little credit.

[boulevard bum]

Yea, I noticed that but they also had an easy nonconference schedule. That seems to be their only big win. They are playing very competitively, but everyone does in conference play. That's NCAA basketball. Tulsa is allowed to have a bad game every once in a while. They beat Rice pretty bad. You can see by who TU has beat and how they beat them that they are a great basketball team. BSU has played well and they are much better than they have been. But look at Baylor almost beating OSU and UT. It's conference play. BSU will have to beat Fresno or Hawaii or even LaTech before I respect them. I agree with you that we have been terrible on the road and if the streak continues Rice should beat us easily. But I think this could be a turnaround game. It won't surprise me if Rice wins but I expect it to be close.

[The CPC]

Boise has beaten Hawaii already. Hawaii AND Tulsa.

Rice beat Colorado and their OOC losses were to Stanford and BYU.

Who was SMU's big win?

[StangEsq]

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR><font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by The CPC:
<B>Who was SMU's big win?</B></font><HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Gardner-Webb?

[sammytheowl]

Rice Scouting Report
This is the best Rice team since 1992-93 (when Rice and SMU battled it out for the SWC title that SMU won on the final day of the regular season). Actually I think it's a more talented team but younger so let's see what happens in clutch situations.

Rice is really pushing the ball up the court at a higher tempo and that's a big difference. If Mance and Gillespie and McKrieth are hot from the outside, Rice will be tough to beat. At home, they're very tough also because their inside players have a better chance of not fouling out.

Negatives -- Harris is pressing a bit because he's not getting as many shots as he'd like even though he's shooting at a high percentage. The Owls are also susceptible to giving up offensive rebounds and 2nd-chance points so big, athletic teams might have an advantage (but I'm not sure if there are teams that fit that description in the WAC).

By the way, Tulsa was a close game (11 lead changes and 7 ties) until we put in our 2nd-string PG midway through the 2nd half and Tulsa went on a huge run. The starting PG (Smith) missed a couple of games (Tulsa, Boise) with a back injury but he's almost 100% again. Tulsa had a lot of fans at Autry and they seemed to inspire the Hurricane like it was a home game for them.

I think we'll have a good student turnout and that would make it tough on SMU. I'd predict Rice will be a 7-10 point favorite or so and that's about right if Rice plays well. But if the crowd isn't as big as I expect or if the outside shooting is off, it could be a close game. At Dallas, it's a pick-em in my opinion, similar to Fresno and Nevada.

[boulevard bum]

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR><font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by The CPC:
<B>Boise has beaten Hawaii already. Hawaii AND Tulsa.

Rice beat Colorado and their OOC losses were to Stanford and BYU.

Who was SMU's big win?</B></font><HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

My point was that Rice hasn't been as good as their record shows. They have been good, don't get me wrong. But, not as good as the record shows. Anyway, are you antimustang or something???? I mean why do you bash everything that might be positive? I would've said TCU until we found out TCU sucks. Nevada was a decent win and UNLV was a good loss. Baylor was a pretty good win. I think they've proven to be a good win...But back on the matter of you actually being a fan of the Mustangs. I'm sorry if my positive attitude annoys you but people like you make me believe that we as fans will never be satisfied. If we won seven football games every year you'd be complaining that our conference sucked. If we won 16 games a year in basketball with wins over two ACC teams you'd be complaining that we needed a coaching change because we weren't winning the national title or appearing in the final four every year. For once try to be happy with what you've got and let the programs progress on their own. I don't even think some of you would like to see us win. CPC wouldn't have anything to talk about if we did.

[The CPC]

Oh good Lord. Where did CPC say anything negative about SMU? Where did he bash something positive? All I did was correct your misconception about 2 other teams. Rice and Boise have both already beaten teams better than anyone SMU has. Saying that they havent is just wrong.

Have you ever seen the movie Patton? Take a look sometime, the old generals favorite saying went something like "You must know your enemy to defeat him." To beat someone you have to know who they really are. Underestimating them intentionally, because telling yourself they arent that good makes you feel better, is a mistake. Having a positive attitude is good, lying to yourself is bad.

If you really want to compare Rices schedule and record, we can pull out their RPI and Sagarin rankings. Those are pretty objective numbers, done by computers and all that business. We can compare the teams they've beaten to the teams SMU has beaten, and some of the teams we've lost to.

While you're there, take a look at the rankings for that Baylor team you think was a good win. Baylor played the weakest non-conference schedule in the country, 326 in the Sagarin rankings. If there's a team who's nowhere near as good as their record, its the Bears, and they are getting exposed in conference play.

Lastly, CPC has never said anything about the football team. His comments have always been basketball related. And He would take 2 basketball wins over ACC teams any year at all. He'd do backflips if the Mustangs ever did that. He'd perch on the top of Dallas Hall and crow from sunup to sundown. CPC would not be able to contain his jubilation. What he's not going to do, though, is lie to himself and say that beating Nevada or Baylor is the same thing. Those ACC wins have been few and far between. CPC has a feeling you werent even born yet, the last time SMU beat an ACC team.

Calm down, take some deep breaths, and open your eyes before you make your next post. Telling things like they are isnt being negative, its being honest.



[This message has been edited by The CPC (edited 01-22-2003).]

[StangEsq]

I would say that Baylor is probably as good as Rice or Boise. Not that it was a monumental win, but Baylor has stayed with some pretty good teams, e.g.:

No. 13 Missouri 77-69
No. 4 Texas 82-71
No. 17 Oklahoma State 67-64

CPC, watch your editing -- you referred to yourself as "I" in the second sentence of your last post.

[sammytheowl]

I wasn't real impressed by Baylor when I saw them play against Houston but they were missing Lawrence Roberts so that's not a fair comparison. Basically at home any of those teams are okay. On the road it's a different story.

By the way, Colorado beat Kansas last night in Boulder so I'd say Rice's win over Colorado and Hawaii's win over Butler are the two best wins in the WAC this year.

[The CPC]

Yes, Baylor has "hung with" some teams, but they havent actually beaten anyone, and they have a couple of low quality losses. Allow Professor CPC to provide the following numbers to illustrate the relevant points.

In the Sagarin Rankings, Rice is currently #77. Baylor is #122. The best team Rice has beaten in those rankings is Colorado (#44) and the best team Baylor has beaten is Southwest Texas (#165). Rice has lost to Stanford (#25), BYU (#36), Tulsa (#50), and Fresno (#63). Baylor has lost to the aformentioned Missouri and Oklahoma State, but also to SMU (#156) and TCU (#162). Both those losses came AFTER Lawrence Roberts returned, and the TCU loss was in the Ferrell Center. Afraid to say, there is no excuse for losing to the Frogs on your homecourt, not this year.

So, all of Rice's losses are to teams that are NCAA tournament contenders, and they have one win over a team of that caliber. The Owls arent going to the big dance this year, but they have a legitimate shot at the NIT. Baylors best win, and 2 losses, are to teams in the 150-170 range of the Sagarin rankings. That appears to be their level of competition.

That concludes todays lecture on strength of scheduling, Professor CPC will now answer questions from the assembled audience.