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Is beating L.T. There is a lot of talk about how we might do in the tourney and all that, but one game at a time folks.

If we beat L.T., we can head into the tourney with a lot of momentum, and hopefully a three seed. Hopefulyl we can garner a two or three seed, get Tulsa to lose to Nevada so it gets the 4th seed, and we avoid Fresno and Tulsa until the final game. That is obviously the optimal situation.

However, odds are that we will finish in a position where we either play Tulsa in the second round (finish as the third seed and Tulsa finishes second), or Fresno in the second round.

So, what is the best scenario for the mustangs?

1) Have an easier first round game, but play Tulsa in the second round at Tulsa?

or

2) Re-play L.T in the first round, and then have to face Fresno in the second round, a team facing some termoil and on a neutral court?

Neither case is very appealing. I'll still face Tulsa before Fresno, however. That sounds strange, but I think Fresno has established itself as the best team in the Wac this year and quite possibly could be NIT bound if they do lose early in the tourney. For some reason, their play hasn't appeared to drop-off since their latest dirty laundry was aired...

1 month ago I would have rather faced Tulsa anywhere than face Fresno State. Now, I feel the opposite. Tulsa is coming on and we can't forget that the tournament is on their home court. They have to be the favorite to win the WAC tourney right now. I want to stay as far away as possible from Tulsa for as long as we can.

I agree that I don't want to face Tulsa. It would be a blessing if we somehow managed to end up on the opposite side of the bracket from both of them. Somebody smart please tell me how that can happen? I guess if Fresno is 1 and tulsa is 3 and we were 4??

With regards to playing Fresno or Tulsa, I still think that day in and day out, FResno has been the most consistent team this year and that's why I fear them the most. Quite frankly, I will be scared of whoever we face in the first round, because whoever that will be can beat us. I'm very wary of facing Hawaii or Nevada, believe it or not. That would suck.

Do you guys really think it matters who we play in the second round? People are assuming too much with this team. You are assuming we will be La. Tech at home. Remember, Dement's history with big games at home. Also, you are assuming that we will win our first round game in the WAC tournament. Although SMU has won a few games recently, the team is not that much better than many teams in the conference. In the WAC tournament, teams will double team Ross and force our other players to beat them. I could see SMU out in the first round. If SMU does win its second game, I would like to see them play Fresno St. Tulsa will be ready for us since we beat them at home earlier. Fresno may take us lightly. With that said, Johnny may seem negative at times, but Dement has let me down too much. I would not be suprised to see SMU lose in the first round but I would not bet on the team to make it out of the second round. Our only prayer is that Hopkins plays his best basketball and we get consistent defense and rebounding from the rest of the team. In other words, the end is near to another disappointing SMU basketball season under Dement.

I guess the ideal thing would be from our perspective would be Fresno 1, Nevada 2, SMU 3, Tulsa 4. That would let us avoid Fresno and Tulsa both. I guess that could happen if Tulsa lost both of its games this week, but not highly likely. More likely is SMU ends up 4 or 5 seed playing Rice first round. The winner would get Fresno in Round 2, which beats playing Tulsa IMO. The problem with that though is the Rice-SMU winner would spend alot of energy beating the other, while Fresno gets an easy first game with the San Jose-Utep winner. Its gonna be tough no matter what, but interesting.

Question for Johnny Rock: Although I don't necessarily disagree with your assessment, what makes you think teams haven't already been taking Q out of the game and forcing other players to beat them? I've seen that from our opponents all year, and maybe the Mustangs have seen it enough they have learned how to get around it.

Instead of our usual end-of-season swoon we have won 3 in a row, working on 4 in a row heading into the tourney. That would be 16 wins so far this year. One or 2 wins in the tourney, giving us 17-18 wins, would IMO be a pretty good year.

A win over La. Tech would indeed be significant. The last time we won our final game of the regular season was 1996. Here's hoping the Mustangs can get the job done Sat. and hit the Tulsa floor with a running start!

Agreed. Winning this La Tech game is HUGE. I'm not too concerned about the WAC tourney, but winning this last game sure would allow me a more optimistic attitude going into Tulsa.

One of the reasons for this post is that while I believe winning the WAC tourney is going to be tough, I think that if SMU can close out with a W against LT, and win two tourney games, we will go to the NIT. You have to think that the NIT will take two from the WAC, and right now they are choosing between SMU, Tulsa, and Nevada.

Tulsa's RPI is 83, Nevada is a 113, and we are at 119. 18 wins should get us in the NIT, because a win over Tulsa or Fresno would push our RPI above Nevada's.

Unfortunately, I dont think 18 wins will get us in the NIT for one reason....attendance. Assuming Fresno wins the tourney, the NIT will take Tulsa and Nevada before us. IMO, our only chance at post season play is winning the WAC tournament.

We can win any game the TEAM wants to win. This is a crazy year in the WAC. To guess who we might play and where is silly. Tulsa is where the tournament is, so if we have to play tulsa at home, no doubt it will be tough, but not impossible. We can beat fresno too (and nevada) just depends which team shows up.

NIT talk, I agree, isn't too hopeful given our attendance situation. MAYBE, we could end up on the road. Win the tourney, and we go to the big dance. That should be the goal.

Go Ponies!


[This message has been edited by No Cal Pony (edited 03-03-2003).]

Okay, I now want to avoid Tulsa at all possible costs. Man, Fresno being out changes EVERYTHING. I feel bad for the people who had nothing to do with these infractions, but everybody kicked SMU when we were down so I won't look this gift horse in the mouth.

I believe that the 1 and 4 seeds are on the same side of the bracket and the 2 and 3 are on the opposite. I will try to get it all sorted out again. Right now, I am researching a few other things. Then I will get back to this.