PX Question

[SoCal_Pony]

Do you think there is a greater likelihood that next years BB team will be better than this year or worst?

I think we will be worst. Not a whole lot worse, but worse nonetheless. I see no consistent scorer to replace Q; do not feel any of our recent signees will contribute materially, and am concerned about our lack of depth; especially in the paint (Kelly and Nigel were big bodies that gave us a combined 30 minutes a night).

I understand this will be offset by the maturation of our big 3, but is that enough?

Assuming no injuries, what happens when Simpson or Castro gets in foul trouble?

Thanks in advance for your response PX, I value your opinion.

FYI – Besides being a terrific scorer, Q was also our 2ND leading rebounder last season, ahead of Eric Castro.

[Charleston Pony]

I know you directed your question to Jon, but that's putting a lot of pressure on the big guy. I think everyone may be putting too much stock into our losing Quinton Ross next year. We have 4 starters returning and 3 of them will be in their 3rd year playing together in the program. When you say we will have no consistent scorer returning, don't forget that the 4 returning starters accounted for close to 50% of our scoring. The big men we are losing (Jibran and Nigel) gave us very little on the offensive end and were not big rebounders, either. In fact, each of the returning starters averaged more rebounds per game than Jibran Kelley, who was our main low post substitute. If Rack or any of the incoming Frosh contribute anything in the low post, and Simpson and Castro continue to improve, we will be much better than we have been in years "in the paint". Don't forget the often maligned Kris Lowe returns as an experienced Senior who has made significant contributions on occasion.

We almost had 4 guys finish with double figure scoring averages this year. I think there's a good chance we will have 4 guys average double figures next year. We may not have anyone average 20 pts like Q did, but we may be a more effective team because of it. When every guy on the floor is counted on to contribute to the team's scoring, we just might see more ball movement and unselfish play...something we saw more of this year than we have in years. Part of our problem is that we've always had a "go to" guy and everyone else was content to stand around and hope that guy could pull us through at crunch time. My hope for these guys is that they will develop a chemistry where they rely on each other and have confidence in each other. It could make us tough to defend when the game is on the line.

Sorry, PX. I know the question was directed to you, but I couldn't resist throwing in my 2 cents. Color me the eternal optimist, but I do see signs of progress in this program. I'm realistic enough to know we have a lot working against us in terms of ur ability to attract the very top recruits, but I think we are getting very close to having a post season caliber team and think we may just be joining Tulsa and Fresno as very respectable WAC programs within the next two years. It looks like Nevada and Hawaii are also establishing pretty decent programs, too, so the WAC might become a very strong mid-major conference in the near future.

[BigEasyPony]

I think you all make some very good points about which players need to step up in order for us to have a good year. Well, Coach Dement has to step up and have a breakout year as well. Granted, he'll be 9 years in to the rebuilding project, but it is a benchmark year for him. It would help if he went to a few coaches clinics on perimeter defense. I know I've said this before, but SMU needs to tighten up their defense and stop giving our opponents so many easy baskets.

Another thing, I just don't buy the argument that the SMU basketball team is hamstrung in recruting. Basketball is vastly different than football (it takes only a few difference makers not many). We have to do a better job of coaching these kids when they get to campus.

[Pony_Fan]

Maybe PX will answer but I had to jump in.

When Ross was not scoring this year, where did the point production come from? We fell behind in basically every game.

If you look at most of the big games and wins, we had double digits by the 5 starters but ZERO bench scoring. When Hop goes out, Voc can't carry the team at all. Isham/Castro showed signs of good things but not on a consistent basis. I really thought Castro was coming on and scored 21 pts in the Nevada game but then disappeared completely. Isham shows great things in spurts and his athleticism is awesome at times but has been a ghost at other times. I am really hoping that we don't get into another situation with Hop being the "go to" guy...if that happens, history and Dement will repeat themselves.

Ross - 20 pts/game
Hopkins - 13.1 pts
Simpson - 11.9 pts
Castro - 9 pts

Season Totals
Ross - 608 Pts
Hopkins - 380 pts
Simpson - 358

Rebounds
Simpson 7.1
Ross 6.4

Even though Smith and Kelly didn't score much, they at least were able to create some space in the middle. Rack is too skinny to defend the post and fouls way too much...he is going to have to develop somehow soon. I don't even want to get into talking about Lowe...he had 5 games in double figures. I am excited and curious to see Simpson develop further and he may be our high scorer consistently. (18 games in double figures)

So Cal - i agree, we are in trouble if Hop, Castro, or Simpson are in foul problems.

When Simpson and Castro are seniors, that is a possible year of talking about post season and possibly dancing. We need to step up and RECRUIT for 2004/5 to compliment Hop.

[This message has been edited by Pony_Fan (edited 03-25-2003).]

[PX]

Right now I dont see us being signifigantly different next year, either for better or worse. We have 4 starters coming back, but the one we lost is the guy who put the team on his back and carried them when things got tough. Besides the points and rebounds, Q was also one of our primary ballhandlers. When Bryan was sitting down, Q brought the ball up the court and handled the ball a fair bit even when Bryan was playing. So, to replace him 4 guys are going to have to step up and shoulder more of the load. I thought Patrick Simpson made good progress this year, Isham and Castro progressed, but only in baby steps. Those 2 guys have to become steady producers, every night. And the 4th guy, whoever that turns out to be, is going to have to provide minutes and production coming off the bench, some points, some ballhandling, and a few rebounds would be helpful, too.
Its normal to expect progress year over year from individual players, and normally you would expect to be a better team when you return 4 starters from the previous year, but thats not always the case. In 2001-02 UTEP had 4 starters back from from a team that went 23-9 and won a few games in the NIT. They should have been solid, even without Wolfram, but wound up just 9-19 and barely out of the WAC cellar. The year before SMU had 4 starters back from a team that went 21-9 and made the NIT, we replaced the one lost starter with a guy who would eventually become the WAC MVP, but still slid backwards. La. Tech had 4 returning starters back from last years NIT teamt, mostly seniors, one an NBA prospect, but that didnt keep them from one of the worst collapses I've seen in years.
Tulsa and Hawaii both also returned 4 starters from last years NCAA teams. They both had relatively successful seasons this year, but their fans will tell you that replacing guys like Savovic and Harrington isnt always easy.
So, right now I cant say definitively, it could go either way. We have to see who looks like they are stepping up in the offseason. Have to see if Bryan has the work ethic to begin next season healthy and in shape. Have to see if Donatas hits the weight room over the summer. Have to see the new guys mix in with the current players in the fall, see if any are ready to contribute.
Have to see how the other teams in the WAC look, most of the key players from this year (Jackson, Fuller, English, Ross, Johnson, Swanson, Mance, Meeking, Felton) are gone, there may be a New World Order next season.

Since what you asked was my opinion on likelihood, I'll tell you that right now what I think is most likely is that we'll be about the same. Some guys will step up, just enough to fill the void Q left. Right now thats what I think, but the season is a long time from now.

The most likely person to pick up Nigel and Jibrans minutes is Donatas. He's the best of the bench post players, including the incoming frosh. Pearson might see some minutes at the 4 spot to spell Simpson, but I'm not sure he is ready to play consistent minutes. We'll see.

Charleston, I dont mind you answering. Anyone is welcome to put in their pennies.

[LA_Mustang]

"Have to see if Bryan has the work ethic to begin next season healthy and in shape."

PX, you hit the nail on the head. If he has it in himself to devote the summer to getting back into shape we will be just fine. Rather than forcing things like he did most of this season he will be able to let his talent and athleticism elevate this team to where Sas, Hancock, and even Ross couldn't.
The lineup of Bryan (healthy), Isham, Lowe, Simpson, and Castro should compete for the WAC title next season. And should give SMU its second consecutive WAC Player of the Year in Hopkins. But like you said PX, that will be up to Bryan.

[OldPony]

It isn't up to Bhop. He needs to improve dramatically. It is up to all of them to show how badly they want it. PSImp and Bryan will be the best players but this team actually played like a team the last 1/2 of the year, and that's how they'll be improved-- As a team-. Q is a stud but we had little help off the bench except for Kelley. I expect to see Rack contribute and Lowe assuming they work hard. Isham can be one of the stars IF he gets and outside jumper. Castro just needs to get meaner and that comes with experience. He'll also be an improved shooter I think. I'm looking forward to next year and think they have a a pretty good chance to dance. Early season success will be critical.