http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatchTeams that should be in: Cincinnati, SMU
Work left to do: Houston
Cincinnati hangs tight, SMU hangs on, and Houston joins the fun -- but for how long?
Cincinnati [23-3 (12-1), RPI: 15, SOS: 87] Four of Cincinnati's last five regular-season games come against teams with RPIs between 102 and 122 (as of Thursday's RPI update). Such is life in the American, where most of the league isn't terrible and most of the league isn't very good. Cincinnati is very close to lock status as is; as long as it takes care of Tulsa on Saturday (and maybe Memphis next week, though we'll see), the Bearcats will move up.
SMU [23-4 (13-1), RPI: 21, SOS: 109] On Sunday, SMU beat Cincinnati, avenging its only conference loss, notching its first marquee win, and fully announcing its previously ignored presence to a national audience. On Wednesday, at home against a 4-20 Tulane team with a sub-250 RPI, SMU trailed 42-27 at the half. Yeah. Gulp. Then Semi Ojeleye scored 16 of his 18 points in the second half, and SMU crawled away from what would have been an unmitigated disaster. Meanwhile, did you know that Mike Dunleavy Sr. -- the longtime NBA coach last seen during his seven seasons with the Los Angeles Clippers -- is in his first year at Tulane? True story! And so it was that "Thunder Dan" Majerle and Grand Canyon University were unseated from the "Most Random Combination of Div. I School and Former NBA Personality" throne. The king is dead; long live the king.
Houston [18-7 (9-4), RPI: 59, SOS: 116] A warm Bubble Watch welcome to the Cougars, who have been on our wait-and-see radar for a minute. Houston's resume lacks top-end wins -- its best is either a neutral-court victory over Vermont or a home win against Rhode Island -- and is weighed down by four sub-100 losses. If the bracket was seeded today, Houston wouldn't have much of a chance of getting in. The Cougars are worth noting for two reasons: After five wins in a row, they boast the American's second-best per-trip offense behind SMU and slightly ahead of Cincinnati. What's more, SMU visits Saturday, and a win would at least keep Houston in the Georgetown/Texas Tech/Providence/Utah faction of bubble long shots that can get in with a big push over the next two weeks.