SI's Stock Report: Picking teams to buy, sell and hold

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Ten sleeper stocks

SMU (12–3). The Mustangs have slowed the pace under first-year coach Tim Jankovic, but it seems to be working. They’ve won eight in a row, including routs at home over TCU (by 15) and Stanford (by 23).

[Harry0569]

Others of Interest:

Baylor (13–0) — SELL

It’s been a rough decade for the Scott-Drew-can’t-coach crowd, but let’s be honest. The Bears have shown impressive guile and cohesion in staying undefeated, but they do not have the same level of talent as the other schools currently occupying the top tier of the rankings. So unless you think Baylor is going to snap Kansas’s Big 12 streak and make it to the Final Four—which I don’t—then you have no choice but to sell this stock, because it has no place to go but down.

Cincinnati (12–2) — SELL

This is a good team, but I feel like we’ve seen this movie before. The Bearcats grind their way to a lot of wins, but when they get into a big spot and need a bucket in their halfcourt offense (not to mention some clutch free throw shooting), they come up short. Cincinnati is ranked 24th in defensive efficiency but 61st in offensive efficiency; 9th in defensive free throw rate but 322nd in offensive free throw rate; 17th in steal percentage but 306th in free throw percentage. It’s a down year in the American which means there are plenty of wins coming. It also means those wins will not be earn the Bearcats a higher ranking or greater buzz. The exception is the Jan. 26 date at home against Xavier.

Michigan (10–3) — HOLD

The Wolverines are who we thought they were. They can score as quickly and efficiently as any team in the country, but they are not good enough defensively to beat the elite schools consistently, especially away from home. Their toughest opponents were South Carolina (road), Virginia Tech (home) and UCLA (road), and in all three cases, Michigan stayed competitive but lost. They also have a real tough Big Ten schedule, with two games each against Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan State.

Pittsburgh (11–3) — SELL

The Panthers have a gaudy record but it came against a weak schedule. In their only ACC game so far, they blew a golden opportunity to beat Notre Dame at home on Saturday, and instead fell by one point in overtime. That leaves their best win the one over SMU at Madison Square Garden back in November. [WRONG] The problem is not a lack of talent—senior forward Michael Young might be the best player in America nobody has heard about—so much as the overall toughness of the ACC. Pitt is not tough enough defensively right now to be an upper-tier team in this league. Therefore, this stock has nowhere to go but down.

USC (14–1) — HOLD

If this were a week ago, I would have recommended that you sell USC. After all, the Trojans were undefeated, ranked No. 22 and had a road date at Oregon coming up. Now that they’ve taken their hit and dropped out of the ranks of the unbeatens, you might as well see how this plays out. In the first place, 6' 10" sophomore forward Bennie Boatwright should be returning pretty soon from the sprained MCL in his knee that he sustained on Nov. 30. Also, within the next three weeks the Trojans will be playing both Arizona and UCLA at home. If USC wins one or both of those games, that would be a good time to cash out.

Sleeper Stocks:

TCU (11–2). Jamie Dixon is earning plaudits in his first season coaching at his alma mater. The Horned Frogs came close to knocking off Kansas at home last Friday. Remember the name Vladimir Brodziansky, even if you can’t pronounce it. The 6' 11" junior from Slovakia had 28 points, nine rebounds and three blocks in that loss.

DUMP:

Tulsa (7–6). This program also lost four starters from a team that made the NCAA tournament. The Golden Hurricane are a tragically sloppy team, turning the ball over 16.3 times per game. They began the season with an 11-point loss at home to Jacksonville State and have never recovered.

Texas (6–7). The Longhorns were ranked No. 21 in the AP’s preseason poll, but they have never looked like a ranked team. They were fortunate to beat Incarnate Word at home in the season opener. Ranked No. 340 nationally in experience by kenpom.com, Texas has lost to UT Arlington and Kent State at home.

UConn (5–8). This team started the season losing at home to Wagner and Northeastern, and that was before they were decimated by injuries. That includes two season-enders to its top offensive player, 6' 8" sophomore forward Terry Larrier, and promising freshman point guard Alterique Gilbert.