Record Estimate

[M Street Stang]

Based on what we've seen so far, I did a quick look at our remaining schedule. I'm estimating that we finish 19-9 heading into the WAC tournament if we win the games we are supposed (easier said than done). That makes the San Diego and ASU losses loom large. It seems like we are in the same position every year of having to win a game or two in the WAC tournament to have a shot at the NCAA. On another note, I see this as a real up and down year, much like we've played so far. As long as we are determined to play zone, then we will have some games where we get beat by an inferior team (ASU), and some games where the zone looks good (Purdue).

['91Pony]

Based on Sagarin's computer ratings, SMU is 95th in the nation and 6th in the WAC. That App. State loss is killing us.

Using the ratings of our future opponents and the 4 point home court advantage, we will finish 13-15. I really hope that your prediction pans out.

This certainly looks like the second best team in the WAC if we can take care of business against weaker opponents but Dement's teams have a habit of losing on the road aginst weak competition. I predict a third place WAC finish and the necessity of winning the WAC tourn. to make the NCAA. The NIT looks somewhat likely this year with two big wins in the books already.

[Eddie P]

I must be confused or drunk...how are we going to finish 13-15? That record will get us into the NIT? I guess I'm not reading your post correctly.

<small>[ 12-22-2003, 11:23 AM: Message edited by: Eddie P ]</small>

[OldPony]

You guys criticizing the defense and Dement's road record amaze me. We just held Purdue under 60 as well as Miami. This team has played pretty good defense. It is the lack of Offense which is hurting us. I think SMU does as well on the road as most WAC teams if you check the past couple of seasons. Perhaps I am wrong but I don't have time to look it up.
Every team in the country seems to be defending inside and forcing 3's this year. When you run into a team who shoots 3's well and you don't, you lose. The percentagtes of 3's made by our opponents is about average.

[ClassOf81]

I still think the San Diego loss hurts more than the ASU loss.

But I agree, the defense has been a really nice surprise, especially Justin Isham, who's turned into a real stopper. What we don't have at the moment is a go-to guy on offense who can either get the ball down low or who can get the ball isolated one-on-one on the perimeter and score most of the time. For the Ponies to win, all five guys need to be viable scoring options, because none is a sure-thing scorer.

Looking at the remaining games, the only ones I really don't like are Oklahoma State and the Tulsa games. Some folks are ignoring Tulsa because Kevin Johnson graduated (FINALLY!), but now they're more of a perimeter team with some very good guards. And defensively, we've had more trouble with teams that can stand out there and flick up 3s all day. Tulsa, I think, will give us real headaches. I think we even match up better against Nevada than we do against Tulsa, although Nevada looked extremely impressive in pounding Kansas yesterday.

['91Pony]

Originally posted by Eddie P:
I must be confused or drunk...how are we going to finish 13-15? That record will get us into the NIT? I guess I'm not reading your post correctly.

Sagarin ratings can be used to predict games by adding the 4 point home court advantage to the rating of the home team and comparing the ratings. Using that SMU would finish 13-15. I'm not endorsing that as a prediction it's just what Sagarin's system predicts.

My prediction is different. I think we could win approx. 18 - 20 games and the NIT is a real possibility. I don't think we win fewer than 15 bu then again I didn't think it was possible to lose to App. State at home.

[FloridaMustang]

Vandy is crushing App St.

[Charleston Pony]

WAC play should be very competitive, but I'm hopeful we can produce the same 11-7 record we did last year. I still think we are an upper level WAC team and it will show over the course of 18 games. That win at Purdue was huge as it should give these guys confidence they can win on the road when they play good defense.

Right now, we are in good position to go 6-4 in non-conference play. Add 11-7 to that and I think we could be 17-11 going into the WAC tourney. From there, anything can happen but I'd like to think we can at least win a 1st round game if we have a good seeding. I came into this year thinking 17-13 but now have hope for better.

Unless we can find a way to win 20 games, I don't see us being invited to the post season. Gotta have it going come WAC tourney time and hope we are deep enough to win 3 games to earn the automatic bid to "The Dance". It will be important to do no worse than a split with everyone in the WAC during the regular season so these guys know they can beat anyone in this league.

[EastStang]

We need to peak at tournament time. Many papers are picking the WAC as a one pick league meaning that only the conference champion goes dancing. So, we need to focus on getting through the regular season with as high a standing as possible. SMU will not get an NIT home bid due to our lousy attendance, but may get a low seed to play on the road throughout the tourney if we win 19-20 games (but remember some 19-20 win teams have been snubbed). 11-7 would be about right for this team. I think they will stumble against a few teams. They seem to have Rice's number. I think Tulsa will be tough as will Nevada. Boise and UTEP have clearly improved. Hawaii, La. Tech and Fresno can be dangerous especially on the road. This is clearly a better WAC than last year and if we can pull an 11-7 record that will be a great regular season.

[LA_Mustang]

The App St loss hurts far more than the San Diego loss for two reasons. The San Diego game was on the road and we didn’t have our best player. On the other hand, there was no excuse or reason for the App St loss. Hopefully, the Purdue and Tech wins will override these two losses.

[Southland]

Originally posted by LA_Mustang:
The App St loss hurts far more than the San Diego loss for two reasons. The San Diego game was on the road and we didn’t have our best player. On the other hand, there was no excuse or reason for the App St loss. Hopefully, the Purdue and Tech wins will override these two losses.

I wouldn't get too caught up in RPI standing; it's not going to mean a whole lot, unless SMU can win the WAC regular season.

Despite what the conference commissioners say, there are set placements for conferences in the post season... Ex: it doesn't matter how bad the Pac 10 is this season (maybe worst ever), the Pac 10 is still going to get 4-5 NCAA bids and 2-3 NIT bids.

There are just different standards, so a team like UCLA can lose at home to UCSB but it will be excused because they beat Michigan State.

With the mid-majors, the same cancellation policy doesn't apply. These guys always focus on the losses... EX: a couple of years ago UCI finished 20-3 and failed to make the NCAA because they had 1 "bad" loss; that same year Georgia made the NCAA Tournament at 16-14 with 3 losses to mid-majors and a losing record in the SEC.

The WAC is not going to get more than 2 NCAA bids and 2 NIT bids in a terrific year (and this isn't one). Further, the conference is probably limited to a single NCAA bid and single NIT bid, since Benson admitted the WAC is a mid-major by enrolling the conference in bracket buster Saturday.

RPI talk doesn't mean a whole lot if you're in a mid-major and have an average record. Unfortunately, here is our reality...

NCAA: win conference tournament, or win at least 15 WAC games as the regular season champion and make the conference championship game

NIT: win 20+ games and finish Top 3 in WAC regular season, or finish in Top 3 of WAC and lose the conference championship game

[OldPony]

My earlier prediction had been 18. I believe this team may be a little better than I thought. I now think 19 but hope for 20.