Ken Pom previews AAC tourney, SMU has 46% chance to win

[MFFL02]

We have a 45.8% chance of winning the tournament. About a 20% chance that the conference gets a 3rd bid in the tourney.

http://kenpom.com/blog/2017-american-to ... -forecast/

Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 SMU 100 89.3 73.5 45.8
2 Cincinnati 100 91.0 62.6 33.8
3 Houston 100 61.9 23.6 9.1
4 UCF 100 55.1 13.4 4.1
6 Connecticut 90.9 37.6 11.6 3.8
5 Memphis 100 44.9 9.1 2.3
8 Temple 68.3 8.8 3.6 0.8
7 Tulsa 70.0 7.8 1.9 0.3
9 East Carolina 31.7 1.8 0.4 0.06
10 Tulane 30.0 1.2 0.1 0.01
11 South Florida 9.1 0.5 0.02 <.001

American Athletic Conference (conference rank: 7th)
March 9-12
All games at Connecticut.
kPOY: Semi Ojeleye, SMU.
Regular season champ: SMU (preseason #49 / 3rd American, current #12)
Overachiever: SMU
Underachiever: Connecticut (preseason #41, current #88)

The American wasn’t a very entertaining conference. It ranked dead last among conferences in both effective field goal percentage and tempo in conference games. Between elite defenses in SMU, Cincinnati, and UCF and the putrid offenses of East Carolina, UCF, and South Florida, there were plenty of opportunities for low-scoring games.

SMU took care of business in the regular season losing a lone conference game en route to the conference title. Tim Jankovich embraced the three-point shot relative to his predecessor, running a modern offense that allowed SMU to lead the conference in two-point percentage, three-point percentage, and offensive rebounding percentage. The result was the best offense in an offensively-challenged league by a whopping .12 points per possessions during league play. This after the Mustangs lost three of their top six minutes-earners from last season.

In any other year, Cincinnati’s two losses would have been good enough to earn the top seed, but the Bearcats were the only team to beat SMU and have to settle for second. SMU and Cincinnati lost just once to the rest of the league and combined have roughly an 80% chance of taking the title. Which means there’s a 20% of bid thievery, led by Houston, but also involving UCF and homestanding UConn.