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Freshman Development Issues

Postby ender3 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:08 am

I admit that there are many, many on this board who know much more about basketball than I do. I don't watch a terrific mount of basketball outside of SMU and Texas Tech (where my wife went). So my sample size is limited.

But I have an honest question: Is SMU's development of incoming freshmen sub-par? Is SMU's player evaluation sub-par? Or are ratings like 247 of incoming players VASTLY overrated?

So, here's the evidence I'm seeing.

Last two years of SMU incoming freshmen (all ratings from the 247 composite):
Harry Froling (.9173)
Tom Wilson (.8717)
Dashawn McDowell (.8385)
William Douglas (.9002)
Everett Ray (.8530)
Elijah Landrum (.8732)
Ethan Chargois (.8876)

Douglas and Landrum are showing flashes, but Chargois is the only one that had a material impact in his freshman year (and he's fading, BADLY, in conference play… whether that's due to "the wall" or a change in role for the 5 at SMU is a matter for debate).

Last two years of Texas Tech incoming freshmen:
Davide Moretti (.9482)
Zhaire Smith (.8840)
Jarrett Culver (.8600) - lower than ANY of ours, aside from Ray and McDowell
They had a LOT of JUCOs, I think that's all the freshmen.

Moretti has been nice, but not season changing (although better than any of ours, aside from Ethan). Smith and Culver have been exceptional (their stats are similar to Ethan's, with no indication whatsoever they are hitting a wall). Also, Smith, Culver and Moretti have been playing against SIGNIFICANTLY tougher competition.

We lost 3 NBA players, and it still took 2 major injuries for any of ours to get significant playing time (again, aside from Chargois). Tech is one of the most senior-laden teams in CBB. These guys PLAYED their way into minutes.

I'm not trying to badmouth our freshmen, or our coaches. I'm trying to understand. What is Tech doing that we're not (either in practice, or when evaluating players to recruit)?
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Re: Freshman Development Issues

Postby mustangxc » Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:34 am

Tech has veteran leaders on the floor with the freshmen at all times. We at one point had 3 freshmen Pyle and one of the transfers and were still within five points closing out the first half. Think about that for a minute
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Re: Freshman Development Issues

Postby JasonB » Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:50 am

We should have gotten our frosh more minutes early in the season to allow them to develop. Because of the number of new pieces, we opted to maximize time with the starters instead. Not playing the frosh significant minutes early (outside of necessity with Chargios) has been a major factor in the lack of development of the freshmen.
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Re: Freshman Development Issues

Postby hoopmanx » Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:54 am

Someone start a Beard vs Jank poll
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Re: Freshman Development Issues

Postby ender3 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:56 am

I hear what you are saying. Tech has a lot of seniors.

But there are only 2 seniors on their whole roster (along with 2 freshmen) who average over 20 MPG.

I'm not counting Smith, who has been gone for 10 games, and is gone the rest of the year.

There's only 2 more (both of whom are transfers) who average 14 MPG.

Emelegou averages 31 minutes per game. Shake (granted, not a senior, but exceptional) averages 36.

Maybe the lack of depth (due to missing scholarships, mainly) and the huge minutes going to upperclassmen is a problem. I would accept that.

But it doesn't *feel* right. If the freshmen were playing up to par, they'd be getting more minutes, wouldn't they?
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Re: Freshman Development Issues

Postby ender3 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:00 pm

hoopmanx wrote:Someone start a Beard vs Jank poll


Not really my intention, as I feel like this problem really seemed to exist under Larry, as well.

I assume you were kidding, and I think they are both pretty exceptional coaches, and I think both schools are lucky to have them.
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Re: Freshman Development Issues

Postby hoopmanx » Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:11 pm

ender3 wrote:
hoopmanx wrote:Someone start a Beard vs Jank poll


Not really my intention, as I feel like this problem really seemed to exist under Larry, as well.

I assume you were kidding, and I think they are both pretty exceptional coaches, and I think both schools are lucky to have them.


Im not enamored w Jank, but have loved Beard since myrtle. Under Larry, kids who didnt come in w/o a real understanding of team D, sat. He's a Dean Smith guy, and unless its a one and type, frosh wait their turn. See Melo and Bron from the 2004 Olympic debacle.

Ray didn't play much cause he's lost in man. Home schooling and one year of Universal, doesnt establish a long line of comp vs elite guys. MemphisDoug, they think has pro potential. He should have been worked in more often. He played high school ball vs rich white honkeys. Game is fast now. Landrum is a smallish PG that started off the season in a major shooting slump. Really competitive kid who's an athletic freak. That said, he was lost in the shuflle of Whitt/Shake/Gu
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Re: Freshman Development Issues

Postby PonyLawExpress » Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:13 pm

ender3 wrote:I admit that there are many, many on this board who know much more about basketball than I do. I don't watch a terrific mount of basketball outside of SMU and Texas Tech (where my wife went). So my sample size is limited.

But I have an honest question: Is SMU's development of incoming freshmen sub-par? Is SMU's player evaluation sub-par? Or are ratings like 247 of incoming players VASTLY overrated?

So, here's the evidence I'm seeing.

Last two years of SMU incoming freshmen (all ratings from the 247 composite):
Harry Froling (.9173)
Tom Wilson (.8717)
Dashawn McDowell (.8385)
William Douglas (.9002)
Everett Ray (.8530)
Elijah Landrum (.8732)
Ethan Chargois (.8876)

Douglas and Landrum are showing flashes, but Chargois is the only one that had a material impact in his freshman year (and he's fading, BADLY, in conference play… whether that's due to "the wall" or a change in role for the 5 at SMU is a matter for debate).

Last two years of Texas Tech incoming freshmen:
Davide Moretti (.9482)
Zhaire Smith (.8840)
Jarrett Culver (.8600) - lower than ANY of ours, aside from Ray and McDowell
They had a LOT of JUCOs, I think that's all the freshmen.

Moretti has been nice, but not season changing (although better than any of ours, aside from Ethan). Smith and Culver have been exceptional (their stats are similar to Ethan's, with no indication whatsoever they are hitting a wall). Also, Smith, Culver and Moretti have been playing against SIGNIFICANTLY tougher competition.

We lost 3 NBA players, and it still took 2 major injuries for any of ours to get significant playing time (again, aside from Chargois). Tech is one of the most senior-laden teams in CBB. These guys PLAYED their way into minutes.

I'm not trying to badmouth our freshmen, or our coaches. I'm trying to understand. What is Tech doing that we're not (either in practice, or when evaluating players to recruit)?


Good post. Thanks for sharing. Interesting thought. My take:

Based on the points you made I would think you mean is SMU missing on recruits who are college ready more than failing to develop freshman. When I think developing freshman I think how you developed a kid from his freshman year to his sophomore year to his junior year. That is what I think when I think development.

Like Zhaire Smith has been good all-season. I would say he was just an underratted recruit not that Tech developed him. I think development would be how he gets better going forward. I'm not saying Coach Beard didn't help him or coach him up since he got there, but thinking if he went to SMU that he would be averaging 4PPG instead of 10PPG at Tech would be saying its based on development. I am sure he would be playing real well here right now. Like I think Shake showed up and was mentally ready to play and was good enough to be a big time contributor. I don't think it was development that allowed him to average 10PPG as a frosh.

I don't think you can blame coaches for not "developing" freshman enough during their freshman year. You can blame them for not signing ready to go freshman or not looking for JuCo's or Grad-Transfers or missing on targets, but I think the lack of development comes when players don't get better as their career progresses. We defientely could have given Douglas and Landrum more burn earlier in the year. Ray looked lost.

Long winded answer: Better talent evaluation in that class. Development of those freshman going forward yet to be seen. I feel we have had good player development in the past (See Sterling, Ben, Jarrey, Shake). This current classes development will be the true tell of our staff.
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Re: Freshman Development Issues

Postby ender3 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:32 pm

Thanks. You're right. "Development" was the wrong word. Development is longer term, and we have seen growth in our players that have stayed with the program.

Evaluation, or "college-ready" may have been a better term.
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Re: Freshman Development Issues

Postby ender3 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:40 pm

Would it be fair to say that there is simply a difference in talent evaluation strategy?

Jank (and the player ratings) favor players with a high ceiling, and place a lower importance on whether they are ready on day 1. Each player is a bit of a gamble, but when you hit, you'll hit big.

Beard prefers players who can contribute right away, even if they might have a lower overall potential? (And then you mix in players like Moretti). More consistent contributors, but fewer who end up in the NBA.

Or am I really over-simplifying now?
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Re: Freshman Development Issues

Postby smitty329 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:16 pm

Every player is different when it comes to transition to the next level - some are ready, some are not. Some that are not ready can be coached/developed, some can not. Classes will be different based on the mix. Unless it's obvious (they are ready and contribute right away or leave the program) you need to give the player and coach a couple seasons to be a contributor and evaluate success. As has been stated we have freshman playing at the same time vs. with senior leadership - and that senior leadership developed while playing multiple seasons with players playing professionally.
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Re: Freshman Development Issues

Postby PonyLawExpress » Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:56 pm

ender3 wrote:Would it be fair to say that there is simply a difference in talent evaluation strategy?

Jank (and the player ratings) favor players with a high ceiling, and place a lower importance on whether they are ready on day 1. Each player is a bit of a gamble, but when you hit, you'll hit big.

Beard prefers players who can contribute right away, even if they might have a lower overall potential? (And then you mix in players like Moretti). More consistent contributors, but fewer who end up in the NBA.

Or am I really over-simplifying now?


I would somewhat agree with that. You are oversimplfying, but its not wrong.

I would say talent evaluation and roster building strategy is key and different with every coach. And different coaches have different evals and strategies.

Sometimes you strike gold with an eval of a Chargois and Zhaire type player and they turn out even better than you and/or recruiting analysts expected. Sometimes you think a guy will be college ready (Everett-since he is a year old, has the frame) and he isn't even close, because of certain flaws he has or was unable to improve quickly. Sometimes a coach sees a Jahmar Young type player and thinks WOW he can do XYZ real well he just needs to get better at A and B and he will be a REAL good/high-ceiling player and I can develop him into that player. Other coaches don't think they can, or think it would take to much time & I would rather get a JuCo who can give me something for sure, or just don't see the ceiling.

Talent Evaluation and roster building strategy is key with coaches. You always got to find the right mix and properly hit on right amount of guys to build that winning team. It makes it much harder on sanctions, because it makes every miss or every slower developing player or that veteran you had to chase off hurt so much more and be magnified, because you are missing 2-3 players that could fill in or be ahead of that person/those players.
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Re: Freshman Development Issues

Postby sadderbudweiser » Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:29 pm

hoopmanx wrote:Someone start a Beard vs Jank poll


Hah Hah...Tech is a ton of fun to watch right now while SMU is like watching paint dry.
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Re: Freshman Development Issues

Postby mrydel » Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:10 pm

People in Little Rock are still in tears over Beard leaving.
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Re: Freshman Development Issues

Postby SMUer » Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:36 pm

I think if you expect to lose all these seniors and you know you have scholarship restrictions then you’re pretty silly for signing kids that aren’t ready to play college ball right away. Nothing that has happened to us has been surprising, and yet we look like we have a bench full of project players we are hoping to blossom. The turnovers, the terrible free throw percentages and the lack of discipline in shot selection all are antithetical to how SMU has played ball and been successful.
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