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Shake Draft Status

Postby PonyTime » Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:17 am

Shake's draft status may be taking a hit for not playing in the post season (or 2nd half of season).

Only one of these three mock drafts have Shake included in first round:

And the one that includes Shake has him going at #28 to Brooklyn (a few picks after Tulane's Melvin Frazier):

https://www.landof10.com/big-ten/nba-mock-draft-2018-projections-first-round-top-players-ncaa-tournament-march-19

Another mock draft with no Shake in first round... Bruno Fernando at #26 in this one...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2764935-nba-mock-draft-2018-predictions-for-trae-young-and-full-1st-round

Shake slipping in the SI mock draft to #29 - right on edge of rd. 1:

https://www.si.com/nba/nba-mock-draft-2018

Here's How Much Money Players Lose When They Fall to 2nd Round in the NBA Draft

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Re: Shake Draft Status

Postby SMU Section F » Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:35 pm

I think if people are telling him there's a realistic chance of a contract, even if he goes a little later, then he needs to be gone. Too much at stake to risk another year playing for free.
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Re: Shake Draft Status

Postby PonyTime » Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:13 pm

SMU Section F wrote:I think if people are telling him there's a realistic chance of a contract, even if he goes a little later, then he needs to be gone. Too much at stake to risk another year playing for free.


$3 Million now (early second round) vs possible $9 Million deal (Pick #23?) next year...

That's what those insurance policies are for.

Really tough choice - I can see why a kid would take the $3 Million now though.
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Re: Shake Draft Status

Postby deucetz » Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:32 pm

PonyTime wrote:
SMU Section F wrote:I think if people are telling him there's a realistic chance of a contract, even if he goes a little later, then he needs to be gone. Too much at stake to risk another year playing for free.


$3 Million now (early second round) vs possible $9 Million deal (Pick #23?) next year...

That's what those insurance policies are for.

Really tough choice - I can see why a kid would take the $3 Million now though.


How many non-P5 seniors get drafted in the first round? What is your basis that he goes in the first round next year?
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Re: Shake Draft Status

Postby JoeKidd » Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:49 pm

Well for the next couple of months Shake's decision is what we'll all be waiting to see and hear as it has a big impact on next season.....for selfish reasons I want him to come back, but if he has any shot of going late in the first he probably needs to go ahead and declare.
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Re: Shake Draft Status

Postby malonish » Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:58 pm

Do the thing where he declares but is still eligible if he backs out before a certain time so he can get evaluated and such.
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Re: Shake Draft Status

Postby PonyTime » Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:01 pm

deucetz wrote:
PonyTime wrote:
SMU Section F wrote:I think if people are telling him there's a realistic chance of a contract, even if he goes a little later, then he needs to be gone. Too much at stake to risk another year playing for free.


$3 Million now (early second round) vs possible $9 Million deal (Pick #23?) next year...

That's what those insurance policies are for.

Really tough choice - I can see why a kid would take the $3 Million now though.


How many non-P5 seniors get drafted in the first round? What is your basis that he goes in the first round next year?


You would have to assume that he would be the pre-season POY in the American.

30 non p5 kids went in last four 1st rounds. About half were internationals. But schools like Georgia State, Murray State, UNLV, Wyoming, Gonzaga, New Mexico State, Creighton, U-LaLa definitely included. But you are correct - long odds.
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Re: Shake Draft Status

Postby 1983 Cotton Bowl » Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:16 pm

I'm not expecting Shake to come back.
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Re: Shake Draft Status

Postby Terry Webster » Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:39 pm

I wonder if the way Semi fell last year will have any effect on his decision on way or another.
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Re: Shake Draft Status

Postby SMU Section F » Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:48 pm

PonyTime wrote:
SMU Section F wrote:I think if people are telling him there's a realistic chance of a contract, even if he goes a little later, then he needs to be gone. Too much at stake to risk another year playing for free.


$3 Million now (early second round) vs possible $9 Million deal (Pick #23?) next year...

That's what those insurance policies are for.

Really tough choice - I can see why a kid would take the $3 Million now though.


That's a huge risk to take, because $0.00 is still a possibility, too.

I'd take the $3 million and then keep working my [deleted] off. If he makes it to a second NBA contract, he's basically set regardless.

I may be wrong, because I have zero inside info, but I doubt Semi regrets his decision...
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Re: Shake Draft Status

Postby deucetz » Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:28 pm

SMU Section F wrote:
PonyTime wrote:
SMU Section F wrote:I think if people are telling him there's a realistic chance of a contract, even if he goes a little later, then he needs to be gone. Too much at stake to risk another year playing for free.


$3 Million now (early second round) vs possible $9 Million deal (Pick #23?) next year...

That's what those insurance policies are for.

Really tough choice - I can see why a kid would take the $3 Million now though.


That's a huge risk to take, because $0.00 is still a possibility, too.

I'd take the $3 million and then keep working my [deleted] off. If he makes it to a second NBA contract, he's basically set regardless.

I may be wrong, because I have zero inside info, but I doubt Semi regrets his decision...


Lol, Semi does not regret his decision. He is making $1,291,892 and he graduated. http://hoopshype.com/player/semi-ojeleye/salary/

Shake will never make zero. You do realize he can make six figures overseas. Shake should go unless he is being told he will go undrafted.
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Re: Shake Draft Status

Postby Pony_Law » Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:31 pm

I'd wager a buffalo nickle that shake's stock rises once he goes through the pre-draft workouts. This kind of reeks of an out of sight out of mind slide, that will quickly get corrected once Shake is in a position to get noticed again. I don't think there is a coach in the conference that would take Frazier over Shake.
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Re: Shake Draft Status

Postby SMU Section F » Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:46 pm

deucetz wrote:Shake will never make zero. You do realize he can make six figures overseas. Shake should go unless he is being told he will go undrafted.

Shake could currently make six figures overseas (and probably millions here)... but if he were to get injured while playing for free next year, his career could be over immediately. Not worth the risk.
Pony_Law wrote:I'd wager a buffalo nickle that shake's stock rises once he goes through the pre-draft workouts. This kind of reeks of an out of sight out of mind slide, that will quickly get corrected once Shake is in a position to get noticed again.

I tend to agree with this, especially if he's fully recovered. Will be interesting to watch.
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Re: Shake Draft Status

Postby PonyLawExpress » Mon Mar 19, 2018 5:10 pm

I'm sure every AAC coach would take Gary Clark over Melvin Frazier too.Many would take Clark over Shake or Shamet. That has nothing to do with who has a higher ceiling and whose the best pro prospect. I think the out of sight out of mind part is very true with these mock drafts.

Shake will declare w/out an agent and go to the combine. That will decide everything.

I doubt he will be back, unless he feels like he has unfinished business, his degree is real important to him and his fam, and he is told he is likely a 2nd rounder. Besides that I am sure he will do pretty well at the combine and go pro. Won't have wow vertical or speed, but shoots so well and will be good in skill and live competition. He might be a bit rusty though.

I expect he will get a projection of going anywhere from 25-40. Could be a bit better or a bit worse. I would guess he is 95% gone, but 2 months ago I would have said 99.9% so there is a chance.
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Re: Shake Draft Status

Postby PonyFan32 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 5:11 pm

deucetz wrote:
PonyTime wrote:
SMU Section F wrote:I think if people are telling him there's a realistic chance of a contract, even if he goes a little later, then he needs to be gone. Too much at stake to risk another year playing for free.


$3 Million now (early second round) vs possible $9 Million deal (Pick #23?) next year...

That's what those insurance policies are for.

Really tough choice - I can see why a kid would take the $3 Million now though.


How many non-P5 seniors get drafted in the first round? What is your basis that he goes in the first round next year?


P5 isn't as meaningful in basketball. Plus the player measurements and skills will matter a lot more than conference affiliation. Saying shake is akin to non-P5 seniors is a meaningless comparison. He is a 6'6"+ guard with handles and elite shooting. That's what matters to the league.
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