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I think this site is interesting... sort on AAC... https://bracketresearch.com/team-quadra ... s-tracker/

Check this out... @UCF, @USF, @Tulsa, Memphis and Wichita St are actually ALL Q2 games.

Our Q1 record is fixed at 2-2, not horrible.

IF we win 4 of those 5, that would put our Q2 record up to 6-4. And yes, that is a big IF since we are below .500 against those teams right now.

Our Q3 would go to 6-1 if we win tonight.

I think at that point, we end up at where you see Wichita today - a NET in the low 40s and a 1.24 Q rating. And I think our resume is pretty close to Houston, Cincy, and Wichita.

Bottom line, if we manage to go 5-1 to end the season, I think we get in the NCAA. We would finish second in the league and all of a sudden will have a comparable resume to the other teams in conference.

Any more than 1 loss, and it would drop our Q2 record to .500 or worse, and we have no chance to get an at large bid to the NCAA IMHO.

Just saying, there is a chance...

JasonB wrote:Bottom line, if we manage to go 5-1 to end the season, I think we get in the NCAA. We would finish second in the league and all of a sudden will have a comparable resume to the other teams in conference.

In that case Jank is likely in national coach of the year discussions in addition to being a lock for the conference coach of the year.

Tulsa away is a VERY tough game for us. Very unlikely we drop that one. Assuming we get through tonight. There are no easy road games, period.

What happens in the conference tournament matters too. At least through the semis; with the final staying on Sunday the committee will again say they had no chance to consider the final game.

Meanwhile, back in reality, this is an NIT team that will have to run the table in the AAC tournament to get an NCAA bid.
That OOC schedule is an anchor around our at-large bid hopes.

We can either win 5/6 now or run the table in Fort Worth. Let's do both!

that's one thing I'm really proud of our 2 AAC Championship-they actually won 4 championships because they backed it up in the Tournament

Stallion wrote:that's one thing I'm really proud of our 2 AAC Championship-they actually won 4 championships because they backed it up in the Tournament

Undisputed champs in those years!

JasonB wrote:I think this site is interesting... sort on AAC... https://bracketresearch.com/team-quadra ... s-tracker/

Check this out... @UCF, @USF, @Tulsa, Memphis and Wichita St are actually ALL Q2 games.

Our Q1 record is fixed at 2-2, not horrible.

IF we win 4 of those 5, that would put our Q2 record up to 6-4. And yes, that is a big IF since we are below .500 against those teams right now.

Our Q3 would go to 6-1 if we win tonight.

I think at that point, we end up at where you see Wichita today - a NET in the low 40s and a 1.24 Q rating. And I think our resume is pretty close to Houston, Cincy, and Wichita.

Bottom line, if we manage to go 5-1 to end the season, I think we get in the NCAA. We would finish second in the league and all of a sudden will have a comparable resume to the other teams in conference.

Any more than 1 loss, and it would drop our Q2 record to .500 or worse, and we have no chance to get an at large bid to the NCAA IMHO.

Just saying, there is a chance...

I agree this SMU team is very much alive for a possible NCAA bid...until they lose another game. I count as many as 40 teams that are probably thinking they have a legitimate shot at one of those 32 at large bids. The question is whether the committee will give the Big 10 as many as 10 of those bids, as the talking heads have suggested. If anything like that happens, the AAC could become a one bid league and might do well to get 2 teams in. As long as we win out (including the AAC Tourney that is), then I'm not worried

And you can kiss it good-bye without the auto-bid after a humiliating defeat against the worst team in the AAC. Just hope our guys can regroup and finish respectably so they can at least sneak into the NIT

Well so much for this idea. Oh well.

The non-conference schedule is not what will keep us from an NCAA tournament at-large. Losses to ECU and Tulane along with a come from 17 points ahead loss to Temple will do that.

mustangxc wrote:The non-conference schedule is not what will keep us from an NCAA tournament at-large. Losses to ECU and Tulane along with a come from 17 points ahead loss to Temple will do that.

Yep. Doesn't even matter that those losses came on the road. Tournament worthy teams are capable of beating bad teams on the road

The season was over before we got to AAC play with the OOC strength of schedule. The weird mishmash of (admittedly) good wins vs Memphis and UH are cancelled out by ECU and Tulane losses.
We are an average team with an inflated record.
We can do better and the players deserve better.

What a gut punch. That was about as much of a disaster as the democratic debate last night.

Click on that link again - Cincy has 4 Q3 losses! Their fan base must be going nuts, even worse than ours.

I'm beginning to think that unless Wichita goes on a run, the conference might end up only being a 1 bid league. Bad losses all the way around. Surely we get two invites, right?

Even if we finish second in conference and runner up in the tourney, I think we are just on the bubble. Winning out would probably only get us up to the upper 40s in NET.

Oklahoma and Virginia are both considered bubble teams, for example:
Oklahoma: 46 NET, 1.04 Q Score, 1-9, 8-1, 3-0, 4-0
Virginia: 56 NET, 1.20 Q Score, 3-3, 4-3, 7-1, 4-0
SMU: 73 NET, 0.76 Q Score, 2-2, 2-3, 5-2, 9-0

If we won out, our NET and our Q2 record would be better than Virginia. We would move up above them. But Oklahoma looks much better than us unless they suffer a couple really bad losses.