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Re: Covid in Moody

Postby JasonB » Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:10 pm

ponyboy wrote:By the way, I just ran the numbers on Texas (source: covidtracking.com) and it appears that the mortality rate in Texas is about 2 in 1000, about twice as deadly as the seasonal flu. Enough to shut down a good portion of the economy? Well, we do have to consider other factors: What helps the argument for the government to step in with the measures it has is the fact that it appears there are other negative effects, see for instance Dukie's reference to "honeycomb lung." But what hurts the argument are deaths (from delayed surgeries, stress, and the like) directly caused by state intervention. Plus whatever value you want to put on individual freedom. And then of course the loss of jobs, possible recession, and the huge debt we're accumulating and passing down to future generations.

I think there's a good chance government should have done nothing at all. I guess we shall see in the future, when all data is in and we can reasonably tally the cost. Hopefully we'll learn from the experience.


Mortality trails cases by 2 weeks. The only thing we know about the mortality rate is that it is a lot worse than the flu, especially for certain age groups. But the surge in hospitalizations won't turn into deaths for another week from today. Hopefully the death acceleration doesn't match the hospitalization acceleration.

More critically, it hospitalizes across the age groups at a much, much, much higher rate than the flu. Guess what happens about all those "other surgeries" when the hospitals in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin are too packed to carry them out?

It is also worth pointing out that part of the reason for the high death rate of the elderly is that the hospitals in NYC and Italy literally had to choose who to treat and who to let die. And they chose to treat younger people. Older people are certainly more susceptible, but there is also a little chicken and the egg going on.

FACT - the FLU doesn't fill up ICU, doesn't fill up hospitals, doesn't stress the system.
FACT - COVID is filling up ICU and hospitals in our biggest cities in Texas. It is currently stresing the system.
FACT - the worst flu season in the last decade killed 60K in the USA.
FACT - Covid has already killed 120K, even with only a small (less than 10%) percentage of the population getting the disease. And before any idiot who doesn't know jack starts claiming BS on the death numbers, go compare this year's pneumonia death numbers and total death numbers with 2017 and the difference is very clear.

IMHO, we don't need to shut everything down, we need people to not hang out indoors together, and to wear masks in the limited times they get indoors, and socially distance. Opening bars and restaurants indoors was really stupid, and against all the scientific advice.

Stop with the BS about this isn't a big deal, or the media is trying to cause panic, or the government shouldn't have done anything. All of that is FALSE. You are part of the problem by propagating that misinformation. Listen to what the actual scientists want you to do, because you are blowing our shot at the football season.

Even if we took extreme measures TODAY, cases won't peak until 1-2 weeks from now. Hospitalizations won't peak for two weeks after that. So we are looking at peak hospitalization July 17 or July 24. Two more weeks to let the cases filter out of the hospitals. So, gradual re-opening again in mid August. Best case.

I know that you won't change who you are listening to, even though they are telling you really stupid things that aren't true, but all I can do is point out the difference between what they are spouting off about and actual reality, and hope that it makes a difference. The science isn't perfect by any means. But at least the science improves their models. And the science, through all of this, has been way, way, way more accurate than any of the naysayer politicians have been. It isn't even close.

I'm sorry for the rant, but I am sure that you are anti "political correctness". So, in a very non politically correct way, I"ll point out that the statement "I think there's a good chance government should have done nothing at all" is a really, really, really stupid statement. It is literally dangerous to the health of our society to be promoting statements like that.

And when you are evaluating the economic impact, please take into account that it will run around $5K per day to stay in the hospital. So, right now in Texas we are burning $25M per DAY of Covid cases in the hospital, and that will continue to grow. That doesn't count the lost productivity while people are at home sick and not able to work or in the hospital not able to work, but each death costs around $1M in economic productivity. Feel free to start adding it up.
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Re: Covid in Moody

Postby One Trick Pony » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:08 pm

JasonB wrote:
ponyboy wrote:By the way, I just ran the numbers on Texas (source: covidtracking.com) and it appears that the mortality rate in Texas is about 2 in 1000, about twice as deadly as the seasonal flu. Enough to shut down a good portion of the economy? Well, we do have to consider other factors: What helps the argument for the government to step in with the measures it has is the fact that it appears there are other negative effects, see for instance Dukie's reference to "honeycomb lung." But what hurts the argument are deaths (from delayed surgeries, stress, and the like) directly caused by state intervention. Plus whatever value you want to put on individual freedom. And then of course the loss of jobs, possible recession, and the huge debt we're accumulating and passing down to future generations.

I think there's a good chance government should have done nothing at all. I guess we shall see in the future, when all data is in and we can reasonably tally the cost. Hopefully we'll learn from the experience.


Mortality trails cases by 2 weeks. The only thing we know about the mortality rate is that it is a lot worse than the flu, especially for certain age groups. But the surge in hospitalizations won't turn into deaths for another week from today. Hopefully the death acceleration doesn't match the hospitalization acceleration.

More critically, it hospitalizes across the age groups at a much, much, much higher rate than the flu. Guess what happens about all those "other surgeries" when the hospitals in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin are too packed to carry them out?

It is also worth pointing out that part of the reason for the high death rate of the elderly is that the hospitals in NYC and Italy literally had to choose who to treat and who to let die. And they chose to treat younger people. Older people are certainly more susceptible, but there is also a little chicken and the egg going on.

FACT - the FLU doesn't fill up ICU, doesn't fill up hospitals, doesn't stress the system.
FACT - COVID is filling up ICU and hospitals in our biggest cities in Texas. It is currently stresing the system.
FACT - the worst flu season in the last decade killed 60K in the USA.
FACT - Covid has already killed 120K, even with only a small (less than 10%) percentage of the population getting the disease. And before any idiot who doesn't know jack starts claiming BS on the death numbers, go compare this year's pneumonia death numbers and total death numbers with 2017 and the difference is very clear.

IMHO, we don't need to shut everything down, we need people to not hang out indoors together, and to wear masks in the limited times they get indoors, and socially distance. Opening bars and restaurants indoors was really stupid, and against all the scientific advice.

Stop with the BS about this isn't a big deal, or the media is trying to cause panic, or the government shouldn't have done anything. All of that is FALSE. You are part of the problem by propagating that misinformation. Listen to what the actual scientists want you to do, because you are blowing our shot at the football season.

Even if we took extreme measures TODAY, cases won't peak until 1-2 weeks from now. Hospitalizations won't peak for two weeks after that. So we are looking at peak hospitalization July 17 or July 24. Two more weeks to let the cases filter out of the hospitals. So, gradual re-opening again in mid August. Best case.

I know that you won't change who you are listening to, even though they are telling you really stupid things that aren't true, but all I can do is point out the difference between what they are spouting off about and actual reality, and hope that it makes a difference. The science isn't perfect by any means. But at least the science improves their models. And the science, through all of this, has been way, way, way more accurate than any of the naysayer politicians have been. It isn't even close.

I'm sorry for the rant, but I am sure that you are anti "political correctness". So, in a very non politically correct way, I"ll point out that the statement "I think there's a good chance government should have done nothing at all" is a really, really, really stupid statement. It is literally dangerous to the health of our society to be promoting statements like that.

And when you are evaluating the economic impact, please take into account that it will run around $5K per day to stay in the hospital. So, right now in Texas we are burning $25M per DAY of Covid cases in the hospital, and that will continue to grow. That doesn't count the lost productivity while people are at home sick and not able to work or in the hospital not able to work, but each death costs around $1M in economic productivity. Feel free to start adding it up.
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Re: Covid in Moody

Postby EastStang » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:50 pm

Remember when we isolated to avoid overcrowding hospitals and to flatten the curve. Now we seem to have changed course to isolate to avoid more cases despite learning that for people under 40 it is rarely lethal. For people under 70 it is lethal about 3.8% of the time. The people who need to isolate are people with existing conditions (people undergoing chemo, people with heart or lung conditions) and people over 70. Yes, wear masks to help reduce spread until we get a vaccine.
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Re: Covid in Moody

Postby ponyboy » Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:17 pm

Jason, a couple of responses:

1. In defense of my statement that COVID is about two times as deadly as the seasonal flu: I've been assuming mortality trails three weeks, which gave me 2.1. If I plug two weeks as per your suggestion, then COVID appears to be 1.8 times as deadly as the seasonal flu. So about two times.

2. In 2018, the flu killed 10,000 in Texas. We're at 2,249 COVID deaths as of Wednesday.

Let me know if you want me to send you my spreadsheet. Data is from covidtracking.com.
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Re: Covid in Moody

Postby SMU Spartan » Fri Jun 26, 2020 6:17 pm

EastStang wrote:Remember when we isolated to avoid overcrowding hospitals and to flatten the curve. Now we seem to have changed course to isolate to avoid more cases despite learning that for people under 40 it is rarely lethal. For people under 70 it is lethal about 3.8% of the time. The people who need to isolate are people with existing conditions (people undergoing chemo, people with heart or lung conditions) and people over 70. Yes, wear masks to help reduce spread until we get a vaccine.


We are going backwards because people don’t want to take basic precautions. Many elderly live with people in the under 40 group. This is going to be a catastrophe.
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Re: Covid in Moody

Postby JasonB » Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:00 pm

ponyboy wrote:Jason, a couple of responses:

1. In defense of my statement that COVID is about two times as deadly as the seasonal flu: I've been assuming mortality trails three weeks, which gave me 2.1. If I plug two weeks as per your suggestion, then COVID appears to be 1.8 times as deadly as the seasonal flu. So about two times.

2. In 2018, the flu killed 10,000 in Texas. We're at 2,249 COVID deaths as of Wednesday.

Let me know if you want me to send you my spreadsheet. Data is from covidtracking.com.


Gotcha. We haven't had an outbreak in Texas until now, and Texas doesn't have a magic antivirus shield over it. So I am going to completely disregard the Texas numbers for this exercise.

Go to covidtracking.com. pull the data nationally for the bad flu season of 2017-2018. Compare national pneumonia deaths for that year to this year. And then compare total mortalities for the same two years.

You will see a difference for sure, but to make it more clear, take that same data, sort for the period of time Covid has been active (week 12 until now).

There you will see the different in deaths between the years, which helps to understand that the 120K number of deaths is reasonably accurate.

Then go back and tell me the last time that the flu killed 120K people in a single year. Spoiler alert, you can't because the database doesn't go back that far.

Then go back and tell me the last time the flu killed 120K people during the "down season" for the virus.

Then go back and take all of your flu death numbers and divide them by 3. Because the flu impacts 30-40% of the population annually and we are *maybe* at 10% of Corona. And tell me the last time there was close to 120K flu deaths adjusted for a 10% infection rate.

Then come back on here and try to explain to everyone that Covid is only twice as deadly as the flu. Because by my math, compared to the worst flu season of the last decade, we are already at double the deaths with a third of the infected population. And that doesn't even begin to take into account that most epidemiologists expect a new disease like this to impact closer to 60% of the population.
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Re: Covid in Moody

Postby JasonB » Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:03 pm

EastStang wrote:Remember when we isolated to avoid overcrowding hospitals and to flatten the curve. Now we seem to have changed course to isolate to avoid more cases despite learning that for people under 40 it is rarely lethal. For people under 70 it is lethal about 3.8% of the time. The people who need to isolate are people with existing conditions (people undergoing chemo, people with heart or lung conditions) and people over 70. Yes, wear masks to help reduce spread until we get a vaccine.


No, we still need to flatten the curve so that we don't overcrowd hospitals. If you haven't noticed, the hospitals are getting overcrowded. Literally nothing has changed. Because those death percentages jump when there aren't ICUs, Nurses, or Doctors to help treat them.
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Re: Covid in Moody

Postby JasonB » Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:04 pm

One Trick Pony wrote:
JasonB wrote:
ponyboy wrote:By the way, I just ran the numbers on Texas (source: covidtracking.com) and it appears that the mortality rate in Texas is about 2 in 1000, about twice as deadly as the seasonal flu. Enough to shut down a good portion of the economy? Well, we do have to consider other factors: What helps the argument for the government to step in with the measures it has is the fact that it appears there are other negative effects, see for instance Dukie's reference to "honeycomb lung." But what hurts the argument are deaths (from delayed surgeries, stress, and the like) directly caused by state intervention. Plus whatever value you want to put on individual freedom. And then of course the loss of jobs, possible recession, and the huge debt we're accumulating and passing down to future generations.

I think there's a good chance government should have done nothing at all. I guess we shall see in the future, when all data is in and we can reasonably tally the cost. Hopefully we'll learn from the experience.


Mortality trails cases by 2 weeks. The only thing we know about the mortality rate is that it is a lot worse than the flu, especially for certain age groups. But the surge in hospitalizations won't turn into deaths for another week from today. Hopefully the death acceleration doesn't match the hospitalization acceleration.

More critically, it hospitalizes across the age groups at a much, much, much higher rate than the flu. Guess what happens about all those "other surgeries" when the hospitals in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin are too packed to carry them out?

It is also worth pointing out that part of the reason for the high death rate of the elderly is that the hospitals in NYC and Italy literally had to choose who to treat and who to let die. And they chose to treat younger people. Older people are certainly more susceptible, but there is also a little chicken and the egg going on.

FACT - the FLU doesn't fill up ICU, doesn't fill up hospitals, doesn't stress the system.
FACT - COVID is filling up ICU and hospitals in our biggest cities in Texas. It is currently stresing the system.
FACT - the worst flu season in the last decade killed 60K in the USA.
FACT - Covid has already killed 120K, even with only a small (less than 10%) percentage of the population getting the disease. And before any idiot who doesn't know jack starts claiming BS on the death numbers, go compare this year's pneumonia death numbers and total death numbers with 2017 and the difference is very clear.

IMHO, we don't need to shut everything down, we need people to not hang out indoors together, and to wear masks in the limited times they get indoors, and socially distance. Opening bars and restaurants indoors was really stupid, and against all the scientific advice.

Stop with the BS about this isn't a big deal, or the media is trying to cause panic, or the government shouldn't have done anything. All of that is FALSE. You are part of the problem by propagating that misinformation. Listen to what the actual scientists want you to do, because you are blowing our shot at the football season.

Even if we took extreme measures TODAY, cases won't peak until 1-2 weeks from now. Hospitalizations won't peak for two weeks after that. So we are looking at peak hospitalization July 17 or July 24. Two more weeks to let the cases filter out of the hospitals. So, gradual re-opening again in mid August. Best case.

I know that you won't change who you are listening to, even though they are telling you really stupid things that aren't true, but all I can do is point out the difference between what they are spouting off about and actual reality, and hope that it makes a difference. The science isn't perfect by any means. But at least the science improves their models. And the science, through all of this, has been way, way, way more accurate than any of the naysayer politicians have been. It isn't even close.

I'm sorry for the rant, but I am sure that you are anti "political correctness". So, in a very non politically correct way, I"ll point out that the statement "I think there's a good chance government should have done nothing at all" is a really, really, really stupid statement. It is literally dangerous to the health of our society to be promoting statements like that.

And when you are evaluating the economic impact, please take into account that it will run around $5K per day to stay in the hospital. So, right now in Texas we are burning $25M per DAY of Covid cases in the hospital, and that will continue to grow. That doesn't count the lost productivity while people are at home sick and not able to work or in the hospital not able to work, but each death costs around $1M in economic productivity. Feel free to start adding it up.
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Really? Are you still arguing that the hospitalization rate isn't a threat? That position is holding up well...
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Re: Covid in Moody

Postby mustangxc » Sat Jun 27, 2020 3:30 pm

OTP once sat next to a nurse on a plane and knows someone who is married to a PA so he has inside info.
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Re: Covid in Moody

Postby mrydel » Sat Jun 27, 2020 4:16 pm

mustangxc wrote:OTP once sat next to a nurse on a plane and knows someone who is married to a PA so he has inside info.
He has a lot more and closer inside info than that.
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Re: Covid in Moody

Postby redpony » Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:03 pm

My granddaughter's husband is an RN at one of the major hospitals in the DFW area. His work load has been reduced to 1 day a week (down from 7) because they have no patients.
Doesn't sound like the hospitals are being over run with cases- does it?
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Re: Covid in Moody

Postby davish75 » Sat Jun 27, 2020 6:06 pm

Thank you, Mr. JasonB; you are spot on.
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Re: Covid in Moody

Postby mustangxc » Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:33 pm

redpony wrote:My granddaughter's husband is an RN at one of the major hospitals in the DFW area. His work load has been reduced to 1 day a week (down from 7) because they have no patients.
Doesn't sound like the hospitals are being over run with cases- does it?

That is probably because of the new order prohibiting elective procedures. Otherwise, are you suggesting this is the healthiest year in human history? :shock:
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Re: Covid in Moody

Postby sadderbudweiser » Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:52 am

Nobody has posted here for a week.

Can you imagine if the same discipline was applied to mask wearing, social distancing, quarantine etc?

We’d have hope for a football season.
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Re: Covid in Moody

Postby ponyboy » Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:46 pm

JasonB wrote:We haven't had an outbreak in Texas until now, and Texas doesn't have a magic antivirus shield over it. So I am going to completely disregard the Texas numbers for this exercise.

I chose Texas because it's where the SMU campus is located, the data is good per covidtracking.com (not all states have good data), and there's good reason to believe that various regional factors, including climate and cultural habits, have an impact on the virus.

Regarding not having had an outbreak in Texas until now, that may very well turn out to be true -- regardless, I'm feeling pretty confident that the further we get along in this thing, the more we're going to find the mortality rate for COVID-19 continuing to decline. It's been doing so, without fail, every single day since we've had data. (And this downward trend is generally true across the nation, not just in Texas).

JasonB wrote: ...pull the data nationally for the bad flu season of 2017-2018. Compare national pneumonia deaths for that year to this year. And then compare total mortalities for the same two years.

Again, I'm not interested in national data. Just Texas. And the pneumonia exercise is not worth my time. It's mortality we're looking at here, and death from COVID-19 or death from the flu, however presented in the form of symptoms, is still death. Dead is dead.

Re my comment regarding 10K flu mortalities in Texas in 2017-1018, you're right: that year was an anomaly. The actual normal number of deaths from seasonal flu in Texas is 6,392, per official state numbers. Thanks for the correction.

JasonB wrote:...the flu impacts 30-40% of the population annually and we are *maybe* at 10% of Corona.

Per the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm), "on average, about 8% of the U.S. population gets sick from flu each season." Per my calculations, 6.7% of the Texas population has contracted COVID-19 (about 1.9M of 29M people). But the 10% figure sounds about right, as I was being conservative in my calculations.

JasonB wrote:...most epidemiologists expect a new disease like this to impact closer to 60% of the population.

Ok, here's where we're getting down to brass tacks. Let's assume the 60% figure is right (vs. 8% for the seasonal flu). If true, my worst-case calculations -- in which I'll assume that the COVID-19 mortality rate stops at 2.1% rather than continuing the downward trend -- project 37K deaths in Texas when all is said and done. And it would take until late July, 2021 to get there. (In that time, 16 months from COVID-19 start to end, the seasonal flu will normally have killed about 8,500 people).

Conclusion: I'm standing by my statement that the mortality rate of COVID-19 in Texas appears to be, at worst, about twice that of the flu. But if your 60% COVID-19 population infection percentage figure is true, COVID-19 is far more contagious -- and the net effect would be that we would see more than four times the absolute number of deaths as compared to the seasonal flu.

That's what your argument hangs on: while we're at about 10% one-hundred days into this thing, 60% of the Texas population will eventually get COVID-19. And that a far greater number would have gotten it if the government hadn't stepped in, spending untold billions and -- in an unprecedented manner -- restricting the rights of the free individuals whom it serves.

I guess we shall see on the first point. The second will almost certainly continue to be an open question.
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