Re: Covid in Moody
Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:10 pm
ponyboy wrote:By the way, I just ran the numbers on Texas (source: covidtracking.com) and it appears that the mortality rate in Texas is about 2 in 1000, about twice as deadly as the seasonal flu. Enough to shut down a good portion of the economy? Well, we do have to consider other factors: What helps the argument for the government to step in with the measures it has is the fact that it appears there are other negative effects, see for instance Dukie's reference to "honeycomb lung." But what hurts the argument are deaths (from delayed surgeries, stress, and the like) directly caused by state intervention. Plus whatever value you want to put on individual freedom. And then of course the loss of jobs, possible recession, and the huge debt we're accumulating and passing down to future generations.
I think there's a good chance government should have done nothing at all. I guess we shall see in the future, when all data is in and we can reasonably tally the cost. Hopefully we'll learn from the experience.
Mortality trails cases by 2 weeks. The only thing we know about the mortality rate is that it is a lot worse than the flu, especially for certain age groups. But the surge in hospitalizations won't turn into deaths for another week from today. Hopefully the death acceleration doesn't match the hospitalization acceleration.
More critically, it hospitalizes across the age groups at a much, much, much higher rate than the flu. Guess what happens about all those "other surgeries" when the hospitals in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin are too packed to carry them out?
It is also worth pointing out that part of the reason for the high death rate of the elderly is that the hospitals in NYC and Italy literally had to choose who to treat and who to let die. And they chose to treat younger people. Older people are certainly more susceptible, but there is also a little chicken and the egg going on.
FACT - the FLU doesn't fill up ICU, doesn't fill up hospitals, doesn't stress the system.
FACT - COVID is filling up ICU and hospitals in our biggest cities in Texas. It is currently stresing the system.
FACT - the worst flu season in the last decade killed 60K in the USA.
FACT - Covid has already killed 120K, even with only a small (less than 10%) percentage of the population getting the disease. And before any idiot who doesn't know jack starts claiming BS on the death numbers, go compare this year's pneumonia death numbers and total death numbers with 2017 and the difference is very clear.
IMHO, we don't need to shut everything down, we need people to not hang out indoors together, and to wear masks in the limited times they get indoors, and socially distance. Opening bars and restaurants indoors was really stupid, and against all the scientific advice.
Stop with the BS about this isn't a big deal, or the media is trying to cause panic, or the government shouldn't have done anything. All of that is FALSE. You are part of the problem by propagating that misinformation. Listen to what the actual scientists want you to do, because you are blowing our shot at the football season.
Even if we took extreme measures TODAY, cases won't peak until 1-2 weeks from now. Hospitalizations won't peak for two weeks after that. So we are looking at peak hospitalization July 17 or July 24. Two more weeks to let the cases filter out of the hospitals. So, gradual re-opening again in mid August. Best case.
I know that you won't change who you are listening to, even though they are telling you really stupid things that aren't true, but all I can do is point out the difference between what they are spouting off about and actual reality, and hope that it makes a difference. The science isn't perfect by any means. But at least the science improves their models. And the science, through all of this, has been way, way, way more accurate than any of the naysayer politicians have been. It isn't even close.
I'm sorry for the rant, but I am sure that you are anti "political correctness". So, in a very non politically correct way, I"ll point out that the statement "I think there's a good chance government should have done nothing at all" is a really, really, really stupid statement. It is literally dangerous to the health of our society to be promoting statements like that.
And when you are evaluating the economic impact, please take into account that it will run around $5K per day to stay in the hospital. So, right now in Texas we are burning $25M per DAY of Covid cases in the hospital, and that will continue to grow. That doesn't count the lost productivity while people are at home sick and not able to work or in the hospital not able to work, but each death costs around $1M in economic productivity. Feel free to start adding it up.