GAME THREAD MBB vs ECU

[Charleston Pony]

We control our own spot in the top 4 now. Just win in Birmingham and we get the 4 seed at worst. Combine that win with a Charlotte loss @ ECU and a Memphis loss @ FAU and we could move up to the 3 seed

[highlander]

Driving down to B’Ham on SUN from Franklin, TN…we win and what? What needs to happen for us to get 4th seed?

I think if we win the next one we're in the top 4. Can someone confirm?

No, if SMU and Charlotte both win Charlotte would have more wins. I don't know what the tie-breaker would be with Memphis but right now we are both 11-6 and they are ahead of us in the standings. One of those two has to lose and we have to beat UAB.

I corrected myself. I think if we win and FAU beats Memphis, we are #4 becuase memphis would have 7 losses. So it would not matter what Charlotte does.

[highlander]

We control our own spot in the top 4 now. Just win in Birmingham and we get the 4 seed at worst. Combine that win with a Charlotte loss @ ECU and a Memphis loss @ FAU and we could move up to the 3 seed

I don't think that's true. if Charlotte wins they finish with only 5 losses to our 6. We do not control our own density.

[highlander]

We control our own spot in the top 4 now. Just win in Birmingham and we get the 4 seed at worst. Combine that win with a Charlotte loss @ ECU and a Memphis loss @ FAU and we could move up to the 3 seed

Would we own the tie-breaker vs Memphis?

[shadowman]

Driving down to B’Ham on SUN from Franklin, TN…we win and what? What needs to happen for us to get 4th seed?

Charlotte has to lose at ECU or Memphis has to lose at FAU.

ESPN Matchup Predictor is showing FAU with an 86 % chance to win and ECU with a 41% chance. Just need one of those two to win and SMU can get the 4th seed. If they both lose, SMU can get the 3rd seed with a win. Both those games are on Saturday, so SMU will know what is at stake on Sunday.

For what it is worth, SMU has a 63% chance to win according to the matchup predictor. The odds are on our side to get a top 4 seed, just need to hope the percentages hold true.

[highlander]

We control our own spot in the top 4 now. Just win in Birmingham and we get the 4 seed at worst. Combine that win with a Charlotte loss @ ECU and a Memphis loss @ FAU and we could move up to the 3 seed

I don't think that's true. if Charlotte wins they finish with only 5 losses to our 6. We do not control our own density.

To paraphrase George McFly.

[highlander]

Driving down to B’Ham on SUN from Franklin, TN…we win and what? What needs to happen for us to get 4th seed?

Charlotte has to lose at ECU or Memphis has to lose at FAU.

ESPN Matchup Predictor is showing FAU with an 86 % chance to win and ECU with a 41% chance. Just need one of those two to win and SMU can get the 4th seed. If they both lose, SMU can get the 3rd seed with a win. Both those games are on Saturday, so SMU will know what is at stake on Sunday.

For what it is worth, SMU has a 63% chance to win according to the matchup predictor. The odds are on our side to get a top 4 seed, just need to hope the percentages hold true.

That matchup predictor ain't worth a crap lately.

[Charleston Pony]

I'm not proud of the team. I'm actually very upset they made it this difficult, but a win is a win and 20 wins is a nice accomplishment. We need to keep winning so we don't play ourselves out of the NIT.

I'm proud of this team for finding a way to win their final home AAC game when they played or at least shot so horribly. Really proud of Williamson and Phelps who on a night when they couldn't hit the wall with a shot managed to key this victory. When has Zhuric ever made 10-10 FTs with every one of them so important? Sam was the definition of grit with 13 boards (and several tips to a teammate keeping a possession alive), 3 assists, 2 blocks and a steal and as poorly as both guys shot they each made clutch buckets down the stretch to help win this game tonight.

You are right that they need to keep winning if they want to play in the NIT. I'd be shocked if this team can put it all together for the next 4 games and earn the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament but I suppose stranger things have happened. Just shake off the ugly part of tonight and beat UAB!

[shadowman]

We control our own spot in the top 4 now. Just win in Birmingham and we get the 4 seed at worst. Combine that win with a Charlotte loss @ ECU and a Memphis loss @ FAU and we could move up to the 3 seed

Would we own the tie-breaker vs Memphis?

If SMU and Memphis both win and finish tied at 12-6, Memphis would win the tiebreaker.

We split head to head so it goes to the record against the highest ranked teams working your way down. Memphis would be 2-0 versus FAU and we were 0-1, so they get the tiebreaker.

[Charleston Pony]

We control our own spot in the top 4 now. Just win in Birmingham and we get the 4 seed at worst. Combine that win with a Charlotte loss @ ECU and a Memphis loss @ FAU and we could move up to the 3 seed

I don't think that's true. if Charlotte wins they finish with only 5 losses to our 6. We do not control our own density.

If we beat UAB and Memphis loses we finish 12-6 and all alone in 4th, even if Charlotte wins and finishes 13-5. If Charlotte also loses we both finish 12-6 but we own the tie breaker for having beaten the 49ers so we would get the 3 seed. Best case scenario is for both Charlotte and Memphis to lose their final games but if we lose @ Birmingham all bets are off. If we play as poorly as we did tonight, we will lose at UAB and probably be a one and done in the AAC Tourney basically playing our way out of any post season invitation

[shadowman]

We control our own spot in the top 4 now. Just win in Birmingham and we get the 4 seed at worst. Combine that win with a Charlotte loss @ ECU and a Memphis loss @ FAU and we could move up to the 3 seed

I don't think that's true. if Charlotte wins they finish with only 5 losses to our 6. We do not control our own density.

If we beat UAB and Memphis loses we finish 12-6 and all alone in 4th, even if Charlotte wins and finishes 13-5. If Charlotte also loses we both finish 12-6 but we own the tie breaker for having beaten the 49ers so we would get the 3 seed. Best case scenario is for both Charlotte and Memphis to lose their final games but if we lose @ Birmingham all bets are off. If we play as poorly as we did tonight, we will lose at UAB and probably be a one and done in the AAC Tourney basically playing our way out of any post season invitation

The last scenario would be if Charlotte loses and both SMU and Memphis win, all 3 teams would be at 12-6 for two spots. Based on the three team tiebreakers, Memphis would be the 3rd seed and we would be he 4th seed.

[shadowman]

And if we lose, there is no path. Charlotte would finish ahead of us regardless of what they do and we cannot win a tiebreaker against Memphis, so top 4 seed is impossible with a loss. May not even be possible with a win, but we will know that Saturday night.

[highlander]

We control our own spot in the top 4 now. Just win in Birmingham and we get the 4 seed at worst. Combine that win with a Charlotte loss @ ECU and a Memphis loss @ FAU and we could move up to the 3 seed

I don't think that's true. if Charlotte wins they finish with only 5 losses to our 6. We do not control our own density.

If we beat UAB and Memphis loses we finish 12-6 and all alone in 4th, even if Charlotte wins and finishes 13-5. If Charlotte also loses we both finish 12-6 but we own the tie breaker for having beaten the 49ers so we would get the 3 seed. Best case scenario is for both Charlotte and Memphis to lose their final games but if we lose @ Birmingham all bets are off. If we play as poorly as we did tonight, we will lose at UAB and probably be a one and done in the AAC Tourney basically playing our way out of any post season invitation

OK so we don't control our own destiny. If all 3 teams win, we are #5.

[mustangxc]

I hope Memphis wins, Charlotte loses, and SMU wins. I'd like Memphis and FAU to get NCAA bids. I also think we have a better shot at beating USF in the semifinal than we do of beating FAU. Under my scenario the seeding would be:

1 USF
2 FAU
3 Memphis
4 SMU

[highlander]

I'm not proud of the team. I'm actually very upset they made it this difficult, but a win is a win and 20 wins is a nice accomplishment. We need to keep winning so we don't play ourselves out of the NIT.

I'm proud of this team for finding a way to win their final home AAC game when they played or at least shot so horribly. Really proud of Williamson and Phelps who on a night when they couldn't hit the wall with a shot managed to key this victory. When has Zhuric ever made 10-10 FTs with every one of them so important? Sam was the definition of grit with 13 boards (and several tips to a teammate keeping a possession alive), 3 assists, 2 blocks and a steal and as poorly as both guys shot they each made clutch buckets down the stretch to help win this game tonight.

You are right that they need to keep winning if they want to play in the NIT. I'd be shocked if this team can put it all together for the next 4 games and earn the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament but I suppose stranger things have happened. Just shake off the ugly part of tonight and beat UAB!

Agree. This was a tough win tonight. To climb back into the game after shooting so poorly, and then finding a way for force OT. Then winning in OT when we HAD TO have a win. I was impressed.