I think our payout on the endowment is 4.7 right now vs 5 - not 100% sure on that. Either way your points are valid - there is no way we get to 2 billion without some major gifts to the endowment. Most endowments grow below 10% on average as you pointed out - not 12 %
I do think there is some planned giving that will kick in within 5 years that could move the needle for us - but we are going to need to find some new sources and pretty big ones at that.
I also don't think we will wait anywhere close to 5 years to start the next one. We cant afford not to start another one any longer than 3 years in my view. Too much to do if we are really trying to get inside the top 50.