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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby JasonB » Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:13 am

Please see the other thread for some of the data elements for the virus itself.

For hospital capacity, there are some important things to remember about Texas:
1) We have a significant ability here to expand both our hospital capacity and our ICU capacity. While right now the number of Covid hospitalizations is at 15% of total hospitalizations, which pushed our ICU to 100% normal capacity and our hospital bed utilization above 80% of normal capacity, our ability to expand means that we aren't really in trouble from that end yet. There are some dashboards that show where we are at per region for hospitalizations, iCU, etc. And with those dashboards, you will see that as we get above the 80% threshold, the hospitals expand capacity and then we get back below or at that number.

2) That said, the big issue is going to be people available to help treat. Texas is bring people in from areas in other states and around Texas that aren't as hard hit. But so are California, Arizona, and Florida. So, the number of nurses and doctors available is a limited number in the country as a whole. At some point we hit a limit. I know that there are people running a lot of really long shifts right now, but I haven't seen any numerical tracking of what the level of strain is or what the limits are that would impact the ability to help patients. We know that they hit limits in NYC and in Italy, where they had to choose who to treat and who not to treat (which, BTW, is one of the reasons the ages skewed so high in those locations), but we don't have anything that would indicate if or when we would hit that situation here in Texas. I would suggest that if we hit Covid representing 30% of the original hospital capacity, which is where New York was at, that is probably a limit. But even right now we see strain on the people in the system.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:20 pm

Florida is hitting a nursing shortage because of all the people getting sick while treating others.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby Insane_Pony_Posse » Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:57 pm

Florida hospital admits its COVID positivity rate is 10x lower than first reported

Orlando news station Fox 35 said on Monday that it undertook an investigation of those "astronomical figures," after which several medical facilities confirmed that their actual positive rates were much lower than those reported to the state government.

The news station reported that area hospital Orlando Health "confirmed errors in the report," with hospital officials stating their their "positivity rate is only 9.4 percent, not 98 percent."

Another Orlando-area lab, Veteran’s Medical Center, listed "a positivity rate of 76 percent," but a company official said that "the positivity rate for the center is actually 6 percent."

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-3 ... 19-results
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby mustangxc » Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:53 pm

Disclosure for ponyboy, this is not objective data! Then again, since it fits your narrative that won't be an issue this time! :wink:

https://news.yahoo.com/german-study-fin ... 04005.html

https://news.yahoo.com/moderna-vaccine- ... jwumo1bpf4
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby ponyboy » Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:12 pm

Ha! By the way, pulled the latest CDC data today and found it interesting that 92.5% of COVID-19 mortalities are in the age group of 55 or more. And .16% (less than two tenths of a percent) for those under 25 years old.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:15 am

Insane_Pony_Posse wrote:Florida hospital admits its COVID positivity rate is 10x lower than first reported

Orlando news station Fox 35 said on Monday that it undertook an investigation of those "astronomical figures," after which several medical facilities confirmed that their actual positive rates were much lower than those reported to the state government.

The news station reported that area hospital Orlando Health "confirmed errors in the report," with hospital officials stating their their "positivity rate is only 9.4 percent, not 98 percent."

Another Orlando-area lab, Veteran’s Medical Center, listed "a positivity rate of 76 percent," but a company official said that "the positivity rate for the center is actually 6 percent."

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-3 ... 19-results


https://miami.cbslocal.com/2020/07/14/f ... al-strain/

Combine the rate at which care workers get ill and the rate that Florida gonna Florida and you find a shortage after X amount of time.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby Insane_Pony_Posse » Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:47 am

ponyboy wrote:By the way, pulled the latest CDC data today and found it interesting that 92.5% of COVID-19 mortalities are in the age group of 55 or more. And .16% (less than two tenths of a percent) for those under 25 years old.


Yes ponyboy! but we MUST keep the schools closed until after the election!
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby ALEX LIFESON » Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:55 am

Insane_Pony_Posse wrote:
ponyboy wrote:By the way, pulled the latest CDC data today and found it interesting that 92.5% of COVID-19 mortalities are in the age group of 55 or more. And .16% (less than two tenths of a percent) for those under 25 years old.


Yes ponyboy! but we MUST keep the schools closed until after the election!


But, it's still OK to protest and riot.... right?
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby JasonB » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:35 am

ponyboy wrote:Ha! By the way, pulled the latest CDC data today and found it interesting that 92.5% of COVID-19 mortalities are in the age group of 55 or more. And .16% (less than two tenths of a percent) for those under 25 years old.


Just keep in mind that those percentages are going to change a bit. In NYC, most of the hospitalizations were older. The hospitalization demographic in Texas, Arizona, and Florida is more more spread. By next week we should have a good indication of what the numbers look like here in Texas.

And, of course, each of those people under 25 have parents, coaches, and teachers they interact with. Don't forget about them :).
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby ponyboy » Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:39 am

Ok, but even if true, I don't anticipate the demographic to change materially. It's fairly obvious from the strong data sets we do have that a) at least 80% of us are in effect immune to the virus; and b) it almost exclusively affects the old and sickly, i.e. those who are not out and about and in the workforce.

Regarding "parents, coaches, and teachers," I'm not in any way forgetting about them. But my take is it's up to the susceptible themselves as well, whether elderly or frail, to avoid contact. (Just about zero of whom are parents, coaches, teachers). We're spending trillions -- trillions! -- on fighting this thing. And, yes, I'll say it: We're spending that money in the form of having the government in places where they have no business being, running our lives. It was true yesterday, it's true today, it will be true tomorrow that government governs best that governs least.

If you just can't stand it and gotta go the route of having the government do something, which again I think is sheer folly as the government basically screws up everything it touches, the fact is that money could best be used (if we just have to try to "fix something") on public health, doing other things to prevent all-causes mortality.

Look, let me give you another number: An astonishing 80.43% of mortalities are from the group of folks who are retirement age or older! To the overwhelming majority of the rest of us, it's not worse than catching the flu -- in some cases there are no symptoms at all. We need to fully open back up again, gain key herd immunity, restore the economy as best we can (we've probably already locked ourselves in to a long, deep recession due to the ridiculous costs of this thing), and get the hell out of the business of ordering people around. People can by and large take care of themselves without Big Brother jumping in to make things "better."

I know this sage advice doesn't go over well with the ignore the money, ready, fire, aim, "do something" types who have greater faith in the fine folks in Washington or Austin than they do in the common American. But there it is.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:09 pm

ALEX LIFESON wrote:
Insane_Pony_Posse wrote:
ponyboy wrote:By the way, pulled the latest CDC data today and found it interesting that 92.5% of COVID-19 mortalities are in the age group of 55 or more. And .16% (less than two tenths of a percent) for those under 25 years old.


Yes ponyboy! but we MUST keep the schools closed until after the election!


But, it's still OK to protest and riot.... right?


The angry "I need a haircut" folks had no masks so using the protesters - and "rioters" is a dog whistle - who actually wore masks as an example of a COVID danger is disingenuous at best and I don't want to assume the worst so we'll stop there.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:10 pm

ponyboy wrote:Ok, but even if true, I don't anticipate the demographic to change materially. It's fairly obvious from the strong data sets we do have that a) at least 80% of us are in effect immune to the virus; and b) it almost exclusively affects the old and sickly, i.e. those who are not out and about and in the workforce.


a) no
b) also no

https://i.imgur.com/khIYzfQ.jpg

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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby ponyboy » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:24 pm

Helpful info which I'll digest (though I'd really like some source references). The nonfatal side effects for sure need to be taken into consideration. I haven't ignored them to this point, but just assumed they were immaterial.

But let me suggest this for now: at most, we're going to lose 10K people in Texas (10.5K is the actual estimate) before herd immunity is achieved and this thing is over. I hope it goes without saying that we would have lost that same number even if the government hadn't spent trillions. Though it is logically possible that someone could make the argument that it has been worth running up our national credit card to what may be the tune of a single year's GDP -- and restricting freedoms to an extent not seen since WWII -- so we can a) have sufficient ICU space; and b) get a vaccine ready. I very highly doubt it. But maybe.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:45 pm

Picture used as an example of the situation not being "death v not death" and not to start a dialogue of getting into the minute details of the secondary effects.

How about this suggestion: we all wear our masks and keep our distance so we don't have to be in the 100K of people that know those 10K that die from a preventable situation or end up being the other numbers of people that get those other maladies. We shouldn't have to get sick to develop the immunity when the lower danger is to get a vaccine when it's ready or maybe we starve it out by not giving it bodies to reproduce in.

This whole idea of "let's all get it and unfortunately a non trivial chunk of people will get long term damage or die" is extremely silly and I honestly cannot empathize with the idea and I am doing my best not to make any assumptions about people who say it.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby ponyboy » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:16 pm

Experts are pretty much in agreement that the virus won’t be starved out or eradicated. But I’m always wearing my mask and social distancing, primarily out of respect for those who think them effective. You’ve given me some good stuff to think about. Thanks.
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