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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:18 pm

By starve I mean make it so fewer factories (people) are pumping out The Rona through mitigation efforts like masks.

The right word for mask effectiveness knowledge is not think, it's know. Kudos for wearing one either way. Japan wore masks at a high rate and had so few deaths despite their population density in many areas. If a pre-symptomatic Rona carrier sprays their saliva and snot droplets into a mask they are catching the vector by which the diseased is passed. If you wear your mask the a free radical Rona droplet has a harder time getting into your lungs.

Here's a nice article detailing some of that:
https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby ponyboy » Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:04 pm

Listen, with your background you can pull off a spin kick to the head, so you win. ;-)
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby gostangs » Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:43 pm

malonish wrote:
ponyboy wrote:Ok, but even if true, I don't anticipate the demographic to change materially. It's fairly obvious from the strong data sets we do have that a) at least 80% of us are in effect immune to the virus; and b) it almost exclusively affects the old and sickly, i.e. those who are not out and about and in the workforce.


a) no
b) also no

https://i.imgur.com/khIYzfQ.jpg

Image
malonish wrote:
ponyboy wrote:Ok, but even if true, I don't anticipate the demographic to change materially. It's fairly obvious from the strong data sets we do have that a) at least 80% of us are in effect immune to the virus; and b) it almost exclusively affects the old and sickly, i.e. those who are not out and about and in the workforce.


a) no
b) also no

https://i.imgur.com/khIYzfQ.jpg

Image


a) There is a growing number who are understanding there is a great deal of T cell immunity out there. Its nowhere near 80%, but it is probably much higher than earlier thought - which is why new predictions are that herd immunity is probably reached when 20% have been exposed (due to t-cell taking it up much higher than just antibodies) - a number NYC is past and Arizona just hit. NYC numbers are waaaaay down and Arizona is now on the way down.
b) There are very limited effects and almost no deaths for anyone under 65 - that's just factual.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:21 pm

ponyboy wrote:Listen, with your background you can pull off a spin kick to the head, so you win. ;-)


You underestimate my laziness and I'd just throw a front kick haha.
Last edited by malonish on Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby ponyboy » Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:41 pm

That makes me feel better.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:00 pm

gostangs wrote:
a) There is a growing number who are understanding there is a great deal of T cell immunity out there. Its nowhere near 80%, but it is probably much higher than earlier thought - which is why new predictions are that herd immunity is probably reached when 20% have been exposed (due to t-cell taking it up much higher than just antibodies) - a number NYC is past and Arizona just hit. NYC numbers are waaaaay down and Arizona is now on the way down.
b) There are very limited effects and almost no deaths for anyone under 65 - that's just factual.


A) Citation requested because all the things I've seen show you need the infection first to have T Cell response, not an inherent immunity. If it was an inherent immunity then it wouldn't have spread so easily at higher rates than the flu.

Continuing- Arizona is on a local down trajectory but is spiking for a reason with everyone resuming life as normal and not wearing masks. NY had tons of mask orders after the major spikes.

B) That's not factual. The people who live through it have a probability for lasting damage and I've shown that. It's not up for debate.

Herd at 20%: If 20% are immune then you don't have herd immunity because for every sick person there would statistically be 8 out of 10 people around them without immunity and could become ill. Then the next given ill person has 8 out of 10 around them who could become ill and so on. Also herd immunity would not ethically be obtained through illness transmission when there are existing mitigation efforts not to get sick until the vaccine will come out and not damage people like the full blown disease does.
Last edited by malonish on Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:01 pm

ponyboy wrote:That makes me feel better.


I'm probably too lazy to do that these days. Too many video games and Papa Johns orders.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby ponyboy » Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:00 pm

I'll outrun you then.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby gostangs » Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:28 pm

malonish wrote:
gostangs wrote:
a) There is a growing number who are understanding there is a great deal of T cell immunity out there. Its nowhere near 80%, but it is probably much higher than earlier thought - which is why new predictions are that herd immunity is probably reached when 20% have been exposed (due to t-cell taking it up much higher than just antibodies) - a number NYC is past and Arizona just hit. NYC numbers are waaaaay down and Arizona is now on the way down.
b) There are very limited effects and almost no deaths for anyone under 65 - that's just factual.


A) Citation requested because all the things I've seen show you need the infection first to have T Cell response, not an inherent immunity. If it was an inherent immunity then it wouldn't have spread so easily at higher rates than the flu.

Continuing- Arizona is on a local down trajectory but is spiking for a reason with everyone resuming life as normal and not wearing masks. NY had tons of mask orders after the major spikes.

B) That's not factual. The people who live through it have a probability for lasting damage and I've shown that. It's not up for debate.

Herd at 20%: If 20% are immune then you don't have herd immunity because for every sick person there would statistically be 8 out of 10 people around them without immunity and could become ill. Then the next given ill person has 8 out of 10 around them who could become ill and so on. Also herd immunity would not ethically be obtained through illness transmission when there are existing mitigation efforts not to get sick until the vaccine will come out and not damage people like the full blown disease does.


20 % herd refers to those exposed to Covid - not the effective HIT. Studies are coming out that claim you can add that percentage to the assumed t-cell immunity (two different things) then you get to a 60% plus or minus aggregate immunity - thus HIT is achieved. There was an article on this in the WSJ and it is catching on as a theory since in virtually all locations where they are seeing huge drops in infections (most of Europe) they have only reached 20 % "contact" - but the cases are dropping rapidly despite that not being enough on its own to achieve HIT.

And stand by my other comment - younger people are not very at risk at all. Poke around on the internet outside of NYT - there is information on that everywhere.

For the record - i wear a mask inside to help keep from spreading anything, as a courtesy - its the right thing to do to protect others that might be caring for someone who is more at risk. I dont get why anyone has a reservation about that.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:46 am

It couldn't possibly be that more awareness and safety measures in place cause a drop in infection rate. Sarcasm font aside, I get what you're saying now and the correct term is hypothesis instead of theory. It would need a lot more evidence, publishes, and peer review.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby JasonB » Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:28 am

gostangs wrote:
malonish wrote:
gostangs wrote:
a) There is a growing number who are understanding there is a great deal of T cell immunity out there. Its nowhere near 80%, but it is probably much higher than earlier thought - which is why new predictions are that herd immunity is probably reached when 20% have been exposed (due to t-cell taking it up much higher than just antibodies) - a number NYC is past and Arizona just hit. NYC numbers are waaaaay down and Arizona is now on the way down.
b) There are very limited effects and almost no deaths for anyone under 65 - that's just factual.


A) Citation requested because all the things I've seen show you need the infection first to have T Cell response, not an inherent immunity. If it was an inherent immunity then it wouldn't have spread so easily at higher rates than the flu.

Continuing- Arizona is on a local down trajectory but is spiking for a reason with everyone resuming life as normal and not wearing masks. NY had tons of mask orders after the major spikes.

B) That's not factual. The people who live through it have a probability for lasting damage and I've shown that. It's not up for debate.

Herd at 20%: If 20% are immune then you don't have herd immunity because for every sick person there would statistically be 8 out of 10 people around them without immunity and could become ill. Then the next given ill person has 8 out of 10 around them who could become ill and so on. Also herd immunity would not ethically be obtained through illness transmission when there are existing mitigation efforts not to get sick until the vaccine will come out and not damage people like the full blown disease does.


20 % herd refers to those exposed to Covid - not the effective HIT. Studies are coming out that claim you can add that percentage to the assumed t-cell immunity (two different things) then you get to a 60% plus or minus aggregate immunity - thus HIT is achieved. There was an article on this in the WSJ and it is catching on as a theory since in virtually all locations where they are seeing huge drops in infections (most of Europe) they have only reached 20 % "contact" - but the cases are dropping rapidly despite that not being enough on its own to achieve HIT.

And stand by my other comment - younger people are not very at risk at all. Poke around on the internet outside of NYT - there is information on that everywhere.

For the record - i wear a mask inside to help keep from spreading anything, as a courtesy - its the right thing to do to protect others that might be caring for someone who is more at risk. I dont get why anyone has a reservation about that.



"Young people are not very at risk at all".

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html

Please take a look at the hospitalizations by age and you will see the growth in younger cases. Age range for 18-49 represents the largest percentage of hospitalizations right now.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/16 ... ng-adults/

In Hays county, for example, 50% of the hospitalizations are people in their 20s.

And please keep in mind, we don't know the long term risks associated with severe cases, for people who get released from the hospital.

If you don't think going to the hospital is a big deal, then that is another topic altogether.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:14 am

A 24 year old woman in North Richland Hills just spent 79 days in intensive care.

She likely had no virus in her after a month. Hooray right? No, because the recovery is much longer than that. After a month on ventilator she had to be rehabilitated because her ability to walk, talk, and swallow had atrophied. Imagine being an athlete being set back for the rest of your life much less an average person with a lower baseline of physicality.

"Maybe if I would have just listened and worn a mask, just a simple thing, I would have avoided all this," she told KTVT. "I work at a bank, I'm always around people, but I was like, 'I'm fine, I'm fine.' Never did I think I'd catch it."

I have multiple 2nd degree of separation acquaintances who have passed from COVID who were mid 20s and early 30s. Take this stuff seriously for all people.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby EastStang » Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:48 am

There are exceptions to every rule. What was the woman's body weight index? Did she have pre-existing asthma or respiratory ailments? Did she have pre-existing heart abnormalities? Did she have a compromised immune system? Yes, wear a mask as a courtesy to others. I put it in the same category of saying "please" and "thank you". Don't have to do it, but its the respectful thing to do. As far as keeping things shut down. 22 European countries are opening public schools. The economy is built on production and sales, we cannot sustain indefinite lockdowns. Imagine communities like Tuscaloosa, Starkesville, Tallahassee, Gainesville, College Station, or Lubbock without college football. That would be a huge hit to those economies. Imagine those communities if the Universities went to on-line only? They'd be ghost towns. So, shutting down universities and college football is a big deal. For the AAC, not as much, many of the teams are located in major metropolitan areas, SMU, Memphis, UCF, USF, Navy, Temple, Tulane, Houston and are playing second fiddle to pro sports and those cities would survive without college students for a semester.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:21 pm

EastStang wrote:There are exceptions to every rule. What was the woman's body weight index? Did she have pre-existing asthma or respiratory ailments? Did she have pre-existing heart abnormalities? Did she have a compromised immune system? Yes, wear a mask as a courtesy to others. I put it in the same category of saying "please" and "thank you". Don't have to do it, but its the respectful thing to do. As far as keeping things shut down. 22 European countries are opening public schools. The economy is built on production and sales, we cannot sustain indefinite lockdowns. Imagine communities like Tuscaloosa, Starkesville, Tallahassee, Gainesville, College Station, or Lubbock without college football. That would be a huge hit to those economies. Imagine those communities if the Universities went to on-line only? They'd be ghost towns. So, shutting down universities and college football is a big deal. For the AAC, not as much, many of the teams are located in major metropolitan areas, SMU, Memphis, UCF, USF, Navy, Temple, Tulane, Houston and are playing second fiddle to pro sports and those cities would survive without college students for a semester.


Here's the hospital news release. You want her to be fat but she isn't. If she had a pre existing condition for immune system she would have had a mask. Self preservation is a mutha-deleted.

https://medicalcityhealthcare.com/about/newsroom/covid-19-patient-discharged-after-79-days?location=medical-city-north-hills

You wanna talk to me about the fit AF, healthy people that I have 2 degrees of friend separation from that died from COVID in their 20s and 30s? We can talk about them too but you aren't gonna like it.

Other countries are opening because they didn't botch the response. We did on ALL sides of the aisle. Japan never closed because they wore masks at such a rate that they had few deaths. Wearing a mask is not a sign of politeness. On the contrary not wearing a mask in public is a sign of disdain and lack of respect for your fellow man. Comparing it to saying please and thank you as if one of the random times you aren't overly respectful to someone they get ill, possibly dead or with long term damage and hardship. Get real. I applaud the governor for finally getting his head out of his nethers and requiring masks.

Get ready for a second shutdown when the Florida Man mentality continues to spread as quick as COVID already is. All because "muh freedoms" when asked to do some real minimum "stuff"(censored lol) that would go a long way to help the economy recover. If people wear their masks and exercise caution then we won't keep prolonging the first wave of this disease like we are and everywhere else isn't.

FYI Further reading on states rights to mandate things in a pandemic: Jacobson v. Massachusetts, U.S. Supreme Court (1905)
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby gostangs » Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:34 pm

malonish wrote:
EastStang wrote:There are exceptions to every rule. What was the woman's body weight index? Did she have pre-existing asthma or respiratory ailments? Did she have pre-existing heart abnormalities? Did she have a compromised immune system? Yes, wear a mask as a courtesy to others. I put it in the same category of saying "please" and "thank you". Don't have to do it, but its the respectful thing to do. As far as keeping things shut down. 22 European countries are opening public schools. The economy is built on production and sales, we cannot sustain indefinite lockdowns. Imagine communities like Tuscaloosa, Starkesville, Tallahassee, Gainesville, College Station, or Lubbock without college football. That would be a huge hit to those economies. Imagine those communities if the Universities went to on-line only? They'd be ghost towns. So, shutting down universities and college football is a big deal. For the AAC, not as much, many of the teams are located in major metropolitan areas, SMU, Memphis, UCF, USF, Navy, Temple, Tulane, Houston and are playing second fiddle to pro sports and those cities would survive without college students for a semester.


Here's the hospital news release. You want her to be fat but she isn't. If she had a pre existing condition for immune system she would have had a mask. Self preservation is a mutha-deleted.

https://medicalcityhealthcare.com/about/newsroom/covid-19-patient-discharged-after-79-days?location=medical-city-north-hills

You wanna talk to me about the fit AF, healthy people that I have 2 degrees of friend separation from that died from COVID in their 20s and 30s? We can talk about them too but you aren't gonna like it.

Other countries are opening because they didn't botch the response. We did on ALL sides of the aisle. Japan never closed because they wore masks at such a rate that they had few deaths. Wearing a mask is not a sign of politeness. On the contrary not wearing a mask in public is a sign of disdain and lack of respect for your fellow man. Comparing it to saying please and thank you as if one of the random times you aren't overly respectful to someone they get ill, possibly dead or with long term damage and hardship. Get real. I applaud the governor for finally getting his head out of his nethers and requiring masks.

Get ready for a second shutdown when the Florida Man mentality continues to spread as quick as COVID already is. All because "muh freedoms" when asked to do some real minimum "stuff"(censored lol) that would go a long way to help the economy recover. If people wear their masks and exercise caution then we won't keep prolonging the first wave of this disease like we are and everywhere else isn't.

FYI Further reading on states rights to mandate things in a pandemic: Jacobson v. Massachusetts, U.S. Supreme Court (1905)



By the way - the only European country with a better (i.e. lower ) fatality rate than the US is Portugal. Its debatable who has handled it best measured by the most important statistic.
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