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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby mustangxc » Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:48 pm

gostangs wrote:
malonish wrote:
EastStang wrote:There are exceptions to every rule. What was the woman's body weight index? Did she have pre-existing asthma or respiratory ailments? Did she have pre-existing heart abnormalities? Did she have a compromised immune system? Yes, wear a mask as a courtesy to others. I put it in the same category of saying "please" and "thank you". Don't have to do it, but its the respectful thing to do. As far as keeping things shut down. 22 European countries are opening public schools. The economy is built on production and sales, we cannot sustain indefinite lockdowns. Imagine communities like Tuscaloosa, Starkesville, Tallahassee, Gainesville, College Station, or Lubbock without college football. That would be a huge hit to those economies. Imagine those communities if the Universities went to on-line only? They'd be ghost towns. So, shutting down universities and college football is a big deal. For the AAC, not as much, many of the teams are located in major metropolitan areas, SMU, Memphis, UCF, USF, Navy, Temple, Tulane, Houston and are playing second fiddle to pro sports and those cities would survive without college students for a semester.


Here's the hospital news release. You want her to be fat but she isn't. If she had a pre existing condition for immune system she would have had a mask. Self preservation is a mutha-deleted.

https://medicalcityhealthcare.com/about/newsroom/covid-19-patient-discharged-after-79-days?location=medical-city-north-hills

You wanna talk to me about the fit AF, healthy people that I have 2 degrees of friend separation from that died from COVID in their 20s and 30s? We can talk about them too but you aren't gonna like it.

Other countries are opening because they didn't botch the response. We did on ALL sides of the aisle. Japan never closed because they wore masks at such a rate that they had few deaths. Wearing a mask is not a sign of politeness. On the contrary not wearing a mask in public is a sign of disdain and lack of respect for your fellow man. Comparing it to saying please and thank you as if one of the random times you aren't overly respectful to someone they get ill, possibly dead or with long term damage and hardship. Get real. I applaud the governor for finally getting his head out of his nethers and requiring masks.

Get ready for a second shutdown when the Florida Man mentality continues to spread as quick as COVID already is. All because "muh freedoms" when asked to do some real minimum "stuff"(censored lol) that would go a long way to help the economy recover. If people wear their masks and exercise caution then we won't keep prolonging the first wave of this disease like we are and everywhere else isn't.

FYI Further reading on states rights to mandate things in a pandemic: Jacobson v. Massachusetts, U.S. Supreme Court (1905)



By the way - the only European country with a better (i.e. lower ) fatality rate than the US is Portugal. Its debatable who has handled it best measured by the most important statistic.


Actually, that only means that the USA has better doctors. Most European countries have had much lower rates of infection and much lower death totals. Greece with a population of ~10 million has had 194 total deaths. Germany with a population of ~84 million has had 9,160 total deaths. Even if you multiply by the appropriate factor to account for population differences USA still is much worse than many if not most in Europe. France is worse as are a few others I'm sure.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... #countries
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby EastStang » Sat Jul 18, 2020 8:30 am

So what if the infections in the US are really 30 Million? That's a 0.4% death rate per infection. Still more lethal than the annual flu.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-coro ... rts-2020-7
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:19 am

That and the flu doesn't leave you with tons of other crud with internal organ damage, neurological symptoms (taste and smell) etc.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby ponyboy » Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:46 pm

EastStang wrote:So what if the infections in the US are really 30 Million? That's a 0.4% death rate per infection. Still more lethal than the annual flu.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-coro ... rts-2020-7


As mentioned in another thread, I've been looking at Texas data and the IFR for COVID-19 is .24% and falling day on day. As compared to .1% for the flu. I think we'll get to the point where the IFR for COVID-19 is less than or equal to the flu. But with more infections, so a similar death rate than a bad flu year -- again, just Texas data.

But, yes Malonish, that's mortalities. There do seem to be some nasty permanent effects from the virus for some that you wouldn't see with the flu.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby JasonB » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:49 am

ponyboy wrote:
EastStang wrote:So what if the infections in the US are really 30 Million? That's a 0.4% death rate per infection. Still more lethal than the annual flu.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-coro ... rts-2020-7


As mentioned in another thread, I've been looking at Texas data and the IFR for COVID-19 is .24% and falling day on day. As compared to .1% for the flu. I think we'll get to the point where the IFR for COVID-19 is less than or equal to the flu. But with more infections, so a similar death rate than a bad flu year -- again, just Texas data.

But, yes Malonish, that's mortalities. There do seem to be some nasty permanent effects from the virus for some that you wouldn't see with the flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html

Here is the link to the CDC IFR. I suggest using that value instead.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:50 am

The death rate is falling for now since there are still one or two ICU beds available (hyperbole) and those critical folks are being treated. When the beds run out, the people who need the care will not get it and death rate goes up.

The curve was flattened to raise the capacity for treating folks. Now the new peak is going to crush the capacity if people don't do their part and sometimes it requires a state to mandate mask usage like TX has done.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby gostangs » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:13 am

malonish wrote:The death rate is falling for now since there are still one or two ICU beds available (hyperbole) and those critical folks are being treated. When the beds run out, the people who need the care will not get it and death rate goes up.

The curve was flattened to raise the capacity for treating folks. Now the new peak is going to crush the capacity if people don't do their part and sometimes it requires a state to mandate mask usage like TX has done.


There is plenty of room in the hospitals in Dallas and Houston at this point and for the foreseeable future. Stay safe and wear masks around other people, but no need to be so deathly afraid of this thing.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby ponyboy » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:43 am

JasonB wrote:
ponyboy wrote:
EastStang wrote:So what if the infections in the US are really 30 Million? That's a 0.4% death rate per infection. Still more lethal than the annual flu.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-coro ... rts-2020-7


As mentioned in another thread, I've been looking at Texas data and the IFR for COVID-19 is .24% and falling day on day. As compared to .1% for the flu. I think we'll get to the point where the IFR for COVID-19 is less than or equal to the flu. But with more infections, so a similar death rate than a bad flu year -- again, just Texas data.

But, yes Malonish, that's mortalities. There do seem to be some nasty permanent effects from the virus for some that you wouldn't see with the flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html

Here is the link to the CDC IFR. I suggest using that value instead.


It's not helpful. The Meyerowitz-Katz study from which that IFR range was derived used worldwide data, which everyone knows is highly suspect. I'm interested in Texas only, which is universally acknowledged to be solid data.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby ponyboy » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:49 am

gostangs wrote:
malonish wrote:The death rate is falling for now since there are still one or two ICU beds available (hyperbole) and those critical folks are being treated. When the beds run out, the people who need the care will not get it and death rate goes up.

The curve was flattened to raise the capacity for treating folks. Now the new peak is going to crush the capacity if people don't do their part and sometimes it requires a state to mandate mask usage like TX has done.


There is plenty of room in the hospitals in Dallas and Houston at this point and for the foreseeable future. Stay safe and wear masks around other people, but no need to be so deathly afraid of this thing.


True. Houston's TMC has complained a little bit of late about not having space. Maybe another hospital or three statewide have had some ICU space issues. But capacity's only a little above average in the state overall at 78% usage.

Totally agree on the no-fear, just-wear-masks-around-others approach.

I'm really hopeful, though not holding my breath, that we'll learn some good lessons from all this regarding the media's need to sensationalize, the primarily (though not exclusively) Progressive need to control the lives of the great unwashed mass of Americans who are far too stupid to think on their own, politicization and opportunity-mongering, and the limitations and fallibility of most of what goes for "science."

Frankly, my faith in our system is strongly shaken. Maybe we can put all that aside, especially the politics, and find common ground so we can be better prepared for the next time a pandemic occurs.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:29 pm

gostangs wrote:
malonish wrote:The death rate is falling for now since there are still one or two ICU beds available (hyperbole) and those critical folks are being treated. When the beds run out, the people who need the care will not get it and death rate goes up.

The curve was flattened to raise the capacity for treating folks. Now the new peak is going to crush the capacity if people don't do their part and sometimes it requires a state to mandate mask usage like TX has done.


There is plenty of room in the hospitals in Dallas and Houston at this point and for the foreseeable future. Stay safe and wear masks around other people, but no need to be so deathly afraid of this thing.


The curve bending made that possible. Respectfully, you didn't take in what I was saying so I'll repeat it differently because calling it hyperbole didn't work. If beds run out, the death rate will change. If the curve goes up to hit the peak capacity at a local level anywhere, the death rate will change. TX has not come near the cap, but with Florida Man mentality it would. Thankfully Abbott did his job and mandated masks to prevent that.

I would not be surprised if/when Football resumes some states are locked out of participating because of failed state level responses like Florida, California, Arizona, etc.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby gostangs » Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:01 am

malonish wrote:
gostangs wrote:
malonish wrote:The death rate is falling for now since there are still one or two ICU beds available (hyperbole) and those critical folks are being treated. When the beds run out, the people who need the care will not get it and death rate goes up.

The curve was flattened to raise the capacity for treating folks. Now the new peak is going to crush the capacity if people don't do their part and sometimes it requires a state to mandate mask usage like TX has done.


There is plenty of room in the hospitals in Dallas and Houston at this point and for the foreseeable future. Stay safe and wear masks around other people, but no need to be so deathly afraid of this thing.


The curve bending made that possible. Respectfully, you didn't take in what I was saying so I'll repeat it differently because calling it hyperbole didn't work. If beds run out, the death rate will change. If the curve goes up to hit the peak capacity at a local level anywhere, the death rate will change. TX has not come near the cap, but with Florida Man mentality it would. Thankfully Abbott did his job and mandated masks to prevent that.

I would not be surprised if/when Football resumes some states are locked out of participating because of failed state level responses like Florida, California, Arizona, etc.


I took in what you were saying - it wasn't all that complicated. You think the curve bent because of masks - but it could just as easily been the younger nature of who is getting infected right now, the better treatments and resulting shorter hospital stays, or the likelihood that this thing just has to run its course and infect the susceptible until it peters out like all other viruses. Probably a combination of all of those. But its interesting that nobody is more masked up and nutty scarred about this than California, and they are hitting records also. You don't really know any more than anyone else on this despite the tone of every one of you posts.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby ponyboy » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:00 pm

I'd just like to ask, "curve bending" at what cost? We've spent trillions -- trillions! -- on this effort. Restricted freedoms an an unbelievably unprecedented manner. Scared the wits out of people. And probably launched a nice, long recession -- if not outright economic depression.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:47 am

gostangs wrote:I took in what you were saying - it wasn't all that complicated. You think the curve bent because of masks - but it could just as easily been the younger nature of who is getting infected right now, the better treatments and resulting shorter hospital stays, or the likelihood that this thing just has to run its course and infect the susceptible until it peters out like all other viruses. Probably a combination of all of those. But its interesting that nobody is more masked up and nutty scarred about this than California, and they are hitting records also. You don't really know any more than anyone else on this despite the tone of every one of you posts.


Curve bent due to shutdowns. Curve has gone up after re openings because people aren't wearing masks and "spitting that rona" everywhere. Shutdowns allowed for more production of PPE and now people should wear them now that there is an increased capacity. Also re: California I have seen plenty of videos of people out without masks and refusing them like from this guy going around giving out free ones on Huntington Beach for example. That and it's more likely that a densely populated area will have more spread because duh. If anything Cali should be "nutty" and wear masks (which again, they have a problem there too) due to them being packed together so tight.

On the things I mentioned, I do know a lot of factual information and have politely offered when something has been non factual. My tone is clinical until someone says that young people are low risk because of my personal levels of connection to sick and dead people that were fit and young.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby malonish » Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:50 am

ponyboy wrote:I'd just like to ask, "curve bending" at what cost? We've spent trillions -- trillions! -- on this effort. Restricted freedoms an an unbelievably unprecedented manner. Scared the wits out of people. And probably launched a nice, long recession -- if not outright economic depression.


A half anus'd curve bend did two things: cost a bunch of money and didn't work. Thanks to the complete realm of government botching this response and the American attitude of "Mah Freedoms" this thing won't go away very easily and it's a consequence of the actions of folks who could do something doing nothing at any level- political or personal. The folks in power could have done way more and the folks at the ground level required a law or mandate to wear a mask when otherwise would not have (the literal easiest thing to do in order not to spread that Rona).

"Well well well, if it isn't the consequences of my own actions..." The consequences will be a severe lack of sports for the near future (brought it back to the reason it's a discussion on the board).

Further reading for alleged freedom restrictions in a pandemic scenario:
Gibbons v Ogden (1824)
SCOTUS determined that the reservation of powers to the State under the 10th Amendment meant that a state had the police power to enforce quarantines and regulations for public health purposes.
Jacobson v Massachusetts (1905)
SCOTUS held that refusing vaccination against a highly communicable disease was sufficient for the state to impose criminal penalties and fines.

Just some interesting reading if anyone wants to bone up on States Rights law.
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Re: Now, From TT grad

Postby ponyboy » Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:57 am

I'm a big constitutional law geek, so those cases are helpful. It's an interesting issue, states rights and the rights of the individual.

I can google as well as anyone, but I do wonder the degree to which the purported nasty, lasting non-mortal effects from the virus are actually a material issue. There's a lot of anecdotal stuff floating around out there. But to what degree is it real? Life is about risk, and the mortality rate in America is still 100%.

Last thing and I'm going away to see if they'll let me continue to be employed. But anyone ever read the book American Nations: A History of Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America? You can easily see where our divergent micro-worldviews come from. A couple of examples: 1. Yankeedom, which originated in the northeast. It's basically a secular puritanism, i.e. "I don't believe in God any more. But I'm still coming at you with all the rigor and passion of a Puritan. I will shove my ideas down your throat or burn you at the stake if you resist." 2. Appalachia, which stretches from those mountains all the way across the norther portions of the U.S. South and right into Texas (DFW, the Hill Country, etc.). It derives from the Scotch/Irish, who were basically in battle with the English. This is where the "don't tell me what to do, government is horrible in everything it does, can't make me" attitude comes from. Those two worldviews do not mix well. Great read.
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