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Football this fall? No way

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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby Hoofprint » Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:35 pm

Maybe the young are less susceptible. I hope that's true.

But some kid in Georgia came home after one day of school and tested positive, which means his/her family will be exposed, which means kids and teachers from class already have been exposed.

When I was in elementary school, I didn't wash my hands enough, I didn't cover my mouth all the time when I coughed or sneezed, I had my hands on everything in class and I threw things at people in class when the teacher wasn't paying attention.

Schools are giant petri dishes with bells that ring between classes. I hope we have a season, but the optimism is fleeting.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:16 am

There's no hope required.

Under 25 years old: 110 million people, one third of the U.S. population, 244 deaths

65 years and older: 54 million people, one sixth of the U.S. population, 108,214 deaths.

I know all about "lies, damned lies, and statistics," but if we can't at least grasp these figures, I don't know how to help.

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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:04 pm

JasonB wrote:The problem is that if you are wrong, it is going to cost a lot of deaths, a lot of hospitalizations...

If you are wrong, I hope that you will apologize for the death, hospitalization, and long term impacts that could have been avoided if Texas had followed the advice of the scientific community.


These points deserve serious consideration. I'm glad you brought them up.

1. I am in no way trying to undermine "the advice of the scientific community," assuming some sort of material consensus even exists.

2. Public health policy is about taking data and drawing a line between sufficient caution and outright silliness.

3. I am still 100% on board with the direction our leaders have given us that we are to wear masks in public spaces where we're not able to maintain social distancing. We also need to we exercise very strong caution when dealing with the elderly, sick, or frail.

4. You're right that there may be some danger in my leading people astray, of me personally being the cause of deaths because someone draws a dangerous conclusion from what I've presented. I guess I have been assuming that the university-educated people on this board are smart enough to draw intelligent, reasonable conclusions for themselves.

What do you make of the chart in the post immediately above?
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby SoCal_Pony » Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:52 pm

ponyboy wrote:There's no hope required.

Under 25 years old: 110 million people, one third of the U.S. population, 244 deaths

65 years and older: 54 million people, one sixth of the U.S. population, 108,214 deaths.

I know all about "lies, damned lies, and statistics," but if we can't at least grasp these figures, I don't know how to help.

Image


ponyboy, that is an informative chart, but I would also add the following which skews the numbers even more.

Only 5% of elderly people (65+) live in Nursing Homes.

Over 40% of total US Covid-19 deaths come from Nursing Homes.

Moral of the story....Mrydel, ArkPony, PK, Charleston Pony and Water Pony all need to stay out of Nursing Homes. :lol: :lol:
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:51 pm

Good news is that all five of those guys are already banned from nursing homes.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby mrydel » Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:39 pm

But that’s where we find the nurses.
All those who believe in psycho kinesis, raise my hand
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:31 pm

And there's your reason.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby JasonB » Sat Aug 08, 2020 3:27 pm

ponyboy wrote:There's no hope required.

Under 25 years old: 110 million people, one third of the U.S. population, 244 deaths

65 years and older: 54 million people, one sixth of the U.S. population, 108,214 deaths.

I know all about "lies, damned lies, and statistics," but if we can't at least grasp these figures, I don't know how to help.

Image


How many under 25s have been hospitalized? What percentage of cases under 25 are hospitalized? How many of those under 25 now have longer lasting health concerns after having the disease? How many people have the under 25s infected, who are now hospitalized or dead or have long term health concerns?
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:25 pm

CDC age groupings are different for hospitalizations, but this ought to answer all of your questions. We're seeing the same curve with mortalities and hospitalizations. And I think it's highly probable that non-mortal effects would have a similar curve as well.

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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby Water Pony » Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:45 am

The United States has now reported more than 5 million cases of Covid-19. To put that in perspective, it took the country 99 days to reach 1 million cases, but it only took 17 days for cases to rise from 4 million to 5 million. And that’s not the only dire statistic. More than 97,000 children tested positive for coronavirus in the last two weeks of July, according to a new medical report. That’s a 40% increase in child cases across the states and cities that were studied.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby Water Pony » Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:06 am

Yahoo Sports

Morning, friends! Positivity first: I spent the weekend watching the PGA Championship, NASCAR races, baseball games, and the NBA and NHL playoff races. That's a bounty of sports unimaginable a few months back.

It was glorious. I could almost forget we were still in the middle of All This, as long as I didn’t look too hard at the stands … or at Twitter.

Because while all those sports were going on, almost entirely without incident, a much bigger, darker story lurked just offshore. College football — for my money, the top-to-bottom most fascinating sport in America — lurched ever closer to what appears inevitable: a shutdown for the fall 2020 season.

The pebbles had been falling for some time, smaller FCS schools postponing or outright cancelling their seasons. Then came Saturday, when the Mid-American Conference announced that its 12 member schools were taking their ball and socially distancing from their season. In the Jenga tower that is this year’s college football season, the MAC was one of those pieces that makes everything start to teeter.

So even as optimism about other sports rode high — with the exception of the St. Louis Cardinals, no player or team across baseball, basketball, golf, NASCAR or hockey tested positive over the weekend — the news turned ever darker for college football.

Our Pete Thamel reported that Big Ten college presidents met Sunday night, with cancellation, or at least postponement, of the football season as the prevailing sentiment. The difficulties of managing infection vectors; the long-term health risks to players; the liability exposure for universities; the possibility of infection for older coaches, staff and fans — it all adds up to a grim conclusion, one that was an obvious possibility as far back as April.

Controlling 130 massive football operations filled with 18-to-22-year-old college students isn’t like controlling a bubble full of millionaires. College football was always the unlikeliest sport to survive in a pandemic, and now, it sure seems like our worst fears on that score are close to being realized.

Within the next few days, the Big Ten could pull the plug on the season. Other conferences could soon follow. And man, that would hurt. So, so much.

If you’re looking for hope — or at least a little less brutal reality — check out Dan Wetzel’s column on how a Big Ten cancellation doesn’t automatically mean every conference needs to follow them into oblivion. For better or worse, both the NCAA and this country have pursued a decentralized — to put it politely — coronavirus management strategy, and that could actually work in college football’s favor.

Other sports have proven it’s possible to play games in a pandemic, and the NFL has yet to set the pace for football. If a conference is willing to wait, and invest the money in mitigation and prevention, it could cobble together some form of a season yet.

We’re barreling into one of the most momentous weeks in college football history. Chances are it won’t end well. We can always hope, but hope hasn’t fared well so far.

Enjoy those other sports, friends, because what we’ve already got might be all we get.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby JasonB » Mon Aug 10, 2020 11:27 am

ponyboy wrote:CDC age groupings are different for hospitalizations, but this ought to answer all of your questions. We're seeing the same curve with mortalities and hospitalizations. And I think it's highly probable that non-mortal effects would have a similar curve as well.

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Thanks! Is there any data per case, or is the only one per 100K general population? With the average hospitalization in Dallas being 37, that chart would seem to be a bit off...
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Mon Aug 10, 2020 12:35 pm

I don't know the answer to that at the moment. Will try to see if I can find the data.

I did, however, just update the Texas data for death rate. Remember a few days ago how we were worrying that deaths would shoot through the roof into the 300-500 per day range? That has not really materialized, fortunately. Still increasing, but not nearly as dramatically as we feared.

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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Mon Aug 10, 2020 12:45 pm

Water Pony wrote:The United States has now reported more than 5 million cases of Covid-19. To put that in perspective, it took the country 99 days to reach 1 million cases, but it only took 17 days for cases to rise from 4 million to 5 million. And that’s not the only dire statistic. More than 97,000 children tested positive for coronavirus in the last two weeks of July, according to a new medical report. That’s a 40% increase in child cases across the states and cities that were studied.


That's interesting, WP. Let me see what I can dig up on that. For what it's worth, we do know that daily new cases for all ages in the U.S. have been going down for the past couple of weeks.

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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby JasonB » Mon Aug 10, 2020 3:29 pm

ponyboy wrote:I don't know the answer to that at the moment. Will try to see if I can find the data.

I did, however, just update the Texas data for death rate. Remember a few days ago how we were worrying that deaths would shoot through the roof into the 300-500 per day range? That has not really materialized, fortunately. Still increasing, but not nearly as dramatically as we feared.

Image


I think we are most likely at the peak - 200 per day - based on both the positive test numbers and the hospitalization numbers. The only caveat to that will be if either of those numbers turn out to be inaccurate (if, as a result of the system switch a few weeks ago, for example, the hospitalization numbers aren't accurate). But I think they fixed the accuracy issues. As long as the numbers are accurate, we should see a dip this week.
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