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Football this fall? No way

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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby Water Pony » Mon Aug 10, 2020 5:30 pm

NY Daily News

Big Ten and Pac-12 on verge of canceling football seasons, SEC and Big 12 mull conference realignment:

https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/coll ... story.html
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby JasonB » Mon Aug 10, 2020 6:58 pm

And the reason why: 5 big ten players have developed the same heart problem that impacted the Red Sox reliever who pulled out of the MLB season. They don't know if that heart condition is temporary or permanent.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... -viability

Any change of position that this doesn't impact young people at all?
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Mon Aug 10, 2020 7:08 pm

We'll wait for an answer from the guy who said it doesn't impact young people at all.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby mustangxc » Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:13 pm

ponyboy wrote:We'll wait for an answer from the guy who said it doesn't impact young people at all.

:roll: :lol:
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby JasonB » Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:27 am

ponyboy wrote:We'll wait for an answer from the guy who said it doesn't impact young people at all.


I think your position has been quite consistent on that subject.

That said, as I posted in a different thread, I think this is the better argument:

All that said, I will submit that IF a university is taking the appropriate safety measures, and the kids are holding each other responsible for not engaging in irresponsible activity, the players have much higher odds of catching the virus through non-football activities than with football.

Basically, if the University is doing what SMU is doing, and you take away football, the risk of a player catching the virus does not decrease appreciably.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:36 am

Yes, I like to think my position on young people has been consistent. Here it is once again, in case you missed it:

1. If you're under 25, it appears that the threat of dying from COVID-19 is very, very slim. As of July 25th, only 224 people in that population had died -- out of 110 million people.

2. Hospitalizations are very, very low too -- as we can see in the graph you asked for and which I posted on the previous page of this thread.

3. I said it's probably the case that non-mortal effects of COVID-19 too follow the same curves as 1 and 2 above. But we just don't know for sure right now, we need more data.

Completely agree with the rest of what you say.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby JasonB » Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:07 pm

ponyboy wrote:Yes, I like to think my position on young people has been consistent. Here it is once again, in case you missed it:

1. If you're under 25, it appears that the threat of dying from COVID-19 is very, very slim. As of July 25th, only 224 people in that population had died -- out of 110 million people.

2. Hospitalizations are very, very low too -- as we can see in the graph you asked for and which I posted on the previous page of this thread.

3. I said it's probably the case that non-mortal effects of COVID-19 too follow the same curves as 1 and 2 above. But we just don't know for sure right now, we need more data.

Completely agree with the rest of what you say.


https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html

Data has changed over time, is younger now...
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby Water Pony » Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:44 pm

I would be careful on minimizing the impact on young people/children with 97K new cases in that group in the second half of July.

Also, we have more than 5 million cases (not 100 million), which is as many as there are people each of these countries, Ireland, Norway, Denmark, Finland and many, many more. We have 4-5 % of the world's population and 20-25% of the cases and deaths.

Europe was hit as hard as we were, but has managed the crisis much better. Although we have lack a cogent national response, the variability in our individual responses has contributed to us plateauing (but at high levels), and consequently, spiking up again. We were too impatient.

Further, the damage to those who are recovering is still unknown and that includes student athletes.

In the end, encouraging students to play is unfair. Peer pressure can be great, especially for young adults.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:18 pm

JasonB wrote: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html

Data has changed over time, is younger now...

A tiny bit this week. But I wouldn't call it material.

Here is the weekly percentage change in hospitalizations per 100K people, by age group, July 25 to Aug 1:
Image

Here's your overall graph of hospitalizations per 100K people, by age group, data through Aug 1:
Image
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby AustinPerson » Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:09 pm

Pretty sure that long-term brain damage is the real thing that should concern us about football, not Covid.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby Water Pony » Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:46 am

I serve the healthcare industry and saw this report in the NY Times. Humbling:

“Houston Methodist, the city’s largest hospital, opened one intensive care unit after another as the coronavirus swept through Texas last month. Veteran staff members said they had never seen so much severe illness and death all at once.

In one unit, patients and their families allowed Times journalists to observe as doctors worked to save their lives.”


Our hearts go out to your front-line healthcare professionals!
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Wed Aug 12, 2020 12:44 pm

Absolutely. I've got a friend at Texas Medical Center in Houston. Those guys have been putting in a ton of extra hours for us all. It hasn't been easy.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby mustangxc » Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:15 pm

“So, I decided to take a closer look at the South Korean study, and noticed a very important detail: It included fewer than 30 positive cases younger than 10 years old,” he wrote. “The low rate of spread among young kids may not have been because they are less likely to transmit the virus, but because they have largely been home over the last few months, and had few contacts as a result.”

https://people.com/health/cnns-dr-sanja ... ronavirus/
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:05 pm

While the writer's conclusion may be true, the case data on which he is basing it is nearly meaningless. Unfortunately, we have to look at hospitalizations and deaths, both of which are involuntary.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:45 pm

And this just in from California:

Image
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