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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby Water Pony » Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:47 am

By The New York Times | Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

The pandemic’s true toll

The number of U.S. residents who have died since March is now more than 200,000 higher than it would be in a normal year, a Times analysis found. Those “excess deaths” most likely reflect the true cost of the pandemic — and suggest that the official death toll may be a substantial undercount.

As the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. has moved south from its early epicenter in New York, so have the unusual patterns in deaths from all causes. Many of the recent coronavirus cases and deaths in the South may have been driven largely by reopenings and relaxed social-distancing restrictions.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:07 am

I'll give that a read, but I will say this. I think there's a very good chance that, if real, at least some that toll is related to not so much to the virus itself but to the novel and heavy-handed, fear-and stress-inducing way our health officials, politicians, and the media have decided to handle it. Some of the deaths may be attributable to suicide, stress-related illness, and the like. Because of hospital restrictions, many die alone without loved ones at their sides. We are social creatures after all. I hope we take a good, long, honest look at our strategy and response after this is over.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby JasonB » Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:10 am

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html

Covid hospitalizations by age group for the past week:
0-4: 0.8%
5-17: 1.1%
18-49: 32.4%
50-64: 28.5%
65+: 37.2%

Covid hospitalizations per 100,000 for the past week:
0-4: 0.6
5-17: 0.3
18-29: 2.3
30-39: 2.7
40-49: 3.8
50-64: 6.0
65-74: 8.1
75-84: 13.4
85+: 11.6

Around 10% of the total hospitalizations are coming from the age range that our players are in.

Anyway, it is important for us to recognize the risk of hospitalization and of long term health concerns for our football players, as well as our coaches.

However, it is also important to recognize that with proper precautions by the players, SMU, and opposing teams, their risk of getting the virus is not amplified by playing football. Where they eat, drink, live, and whether or not they go in person to classes are much bigger factors.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby JasonB » Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:12 am

ponyboy wrote:I'll give that a read, but I will say this. I think there's a very good chance that, if real, at least some that toll is related to not so much to the virus itself but to the novel and heavy-handed, fear-and stress-inducing way our health officials, politicians, and the media have decided to handle it. Some of the deaths may be attributable to suicide, stress-related illness, and the like. Because of hospital restrictions, many die alone without loved ones at their sides. We are social creatures after all. I hope we take a good, long, honest look at our strategy and response after this is over.


I agree, just as I hope you and the governor recognize the 5K deaths that were caused in Texas by running an anti-mask campaign.

There is no appreciable difference in economics pre or post July 2. The only difference is in the number of cases, hospitalizations, and eventually deaths.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Thu Aug 13, 2020 10:47 am

He is my governor, you're right about that. I think he's handled the situation brilliantly even with progressives sniping at him every chance they get. The goal was never, ever, ever, ever to prevent the virus from making its way through the population. Everyone forgets that we knew that was impossible from the beginning. We just conveniently forgot that in our heavy-handed religious fervor and virtue signaling. The goal was to allow ICUs the ability to handle the flow of incoming patients. And you think that spending close to a full year's GDP on all this nationally is not going to make an economic difference? Trillions.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:08 am

JasonB wrote:Covid hospitalizations per 100,000 for the past week:
0-4: 0.6
5-17: 0.3
18-29: 2.3
30-39: 2.7
40-49: 3.8
50-64: 6.0
65-74: 8.1
75-84: 13.4
85+: 11.6


Basic statistical manipulation. Here are the (politically) selected age ranges from that list:

0-4: Five years
5-17: Thirteen years
18-29: Twelve years

30-39: Ten years
40-49: Ten years
50-64: Fifteen years
65-74: Ten years
75-84: Ten years
85+: Unknown

Oldest trick in the book. If you're being fair, your age ranges are the same, whether a five-year or a ten-year range, whatever.

The numbers in bold indicate, then, what story someone wishes to tell. Underemphasize COVID-19's effect on the very young, overemphasize its effects on school aged kids, college aged kids, and those nearing retirement so that you can continue to shut down schools and businesses.

Why would they want to do that? Anyone's guess. So they can continue telling people what to do? Destroy the economy so Orange Man isn't re-elected? Disguise the overreaction? But it's purposeful -- these people are not the statistical morons they appear to be.

I posted more fair numbers in my graph on hospitalizations per 100K several posts above.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby Water Pony » Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:52 am

"Why would they want to do that? Anyone's guess. So they can continue telling people what to do? Destroy the economy so Orange Man isn't re-elected? Disguise the overreaction? But it's purposeful -- these people are not the statistical morons they appear to be."

It is disappointing to see this criticism which questions the motives of those who remain concerned about the nation's response to COVID-19.

I can't imagine any rationale, good or bad, by those who question the US and Texas administrations lack of a coordinated response, are willing to sacrifice our economy and the lives of fellow citizens to defeat the President. We can oppose him without being accused of these sinister reasons.

We need leadership and respect for those who are concerned. Let's not divide the country, but bring us together.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby ponyboy » Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:43 pm

WP, I certainly respect you. And I appreciate you calling me out. Some of it's fair. All of it's appreciated.

Let me say this: I'm not questioning the motives of those who remain concerned about the nation's response to COVID-19. I am here questioning the motives of the people who provide the data. And I've been wondering aloud why in all this 24x7 noise about COVID-19 we don't hear that this is a disease that overwhelmingly affects the elderly? Why don't we hear that there is, in all probability, very little risk to anyone under 25 years old? These are important facts that are being filtered from the conversation. Why is that?

I'm genuinely asking. I do not pretend to know.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby malonish » Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:11 pm

The under 25s don't only talk to, live with, and interact with the under 25s. If they catch, spread, and survive then yeah they live but did they just help it get to someone older?

And of course wear the mask if you leave your front door. Some households with cross sections of age might possibly want to wear masks in house too.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby gostangs » Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:57 pm

Water Pony wrote:"Why would they want to do that? Anyone's guess. So they can continue telling people what to do? Destroy the economy so Orange Man isn't re-elected? Disguise the overreaction? But it's purposeful -- these people are not the statistical morons they appear to be."

It is disappointing to see this criticism which questions the motives of those who remain concerned about the nation's response to COVID-19.

I can't imagine any rationale, good or bad, by those who question the US and Texas administrations lack of a coordinated response, are willing to sacrifice our economy and the lives of fellow citizens to defeat the President. We can oppose him without being accused of these sinister reasons.

We need leadership and respect for those who are concerned. Let's not divide the country, but bring us together.


Shouldn’t you be disappointed in people who are purposely manipulating data, for whatever reason - as ponyboy points out? That is what i am disapppointed in - and that includes purposely manipulated headlines and articles that only focus on fear porn. Gratuitous is a kind description of these basic liars.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby JasonB » Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:49 pm

ponyboy wrote:He is my governor, you're right about that. I think he's handled the situation brilliantly even with progressives sniping at him every chance they get. The goal was never, ever, ever, ever to prevent the virus from making its way through the population. Everyone forgets that we knew that was impossible from the beginning. We just conveniently forgot that in our heavy-handed religious fervor and virtue signaling. The goal was to allow ICUs the ability to handle the flow of incoming patients. And you think that spending close to a full year's GDP on all this nationally is not going to make an economic difference? Trillions.


No, he barred the cities from requiring masks. Caused 5K Texans to die. Pretty simple. All the numbers show that.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby JasonB » Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:05 pm

ponyboy wrote:
JasonB wrote:Covid hospitalizations per 100,000 for the past week:
0-4: 0.6
5-17: 0.3
18-29: 2.3
30-39: 2.7
40-49: 3.8
50-64: 6.0
65-74: 8.1
75-84: 13.4
85+: 11.6


Basic statistical manipulation. Here are the (politically) selected age ranges from that list:

0-4: Five years
5-17: Thirteen years
18-29: Twelve years

30-39: Ten years
40-49: Ten years
50-64: Fifteen years
65-74: Ten years
75-84: Ten years
85+: Unknown

Oldest trick in the book. If you're being fair, your age ranges are the same, whether a five-year or a ten-year range, whatever.

The numbers in bold indicate, then, what story someone wishes to tell. Underemphasize COVID-19's effect on the very young, overemphasize its effects on school aged kids, college aged kids, and those nearing retirement so that you can continue to shut down schools and businesses.

Why would they want to do that? Anyone's guess. So they can continue telling people what to do? Destroy the economy so Orange Man isn't re-elected? Disguise the overreaction? But it's purposeful -- these people are not the statistical morons they appear to be.

I posted more fair numbers in my graph on hospitalizations per 100K several posts above.


Here is the statistical manipulation you d!ck.

1) Go to the CDC website.
2) find the age data
3) notice that the age ranges are 0-4, 5-17, 18-49, 50-64, 65+
4) Think, wow, those ranges don't really tell me much.
5) Check the box on the website that breaks 18-49 and 65+ into smaller ranges.
6) Think, okay, that isn't perfect, but it is better.

Go back and look at the image I displayed. YOUR statistics are manipulating because they are cumulative from early in the pandemic when the young weren't infected. I am at least trying to illustrate recent data and being transparent about it. Projection is a [deleted], isn't it.

Like I said, around 10% of the hospitalizations are in the targeted age range. Don't know what percentage of those end up with long term issues.

The risk certainly isn't near as high as the 80 years old. And it isn't even near as high as the coaching staff. And the vast majority of the risk is away from the football field. But stop pretending like there is no risk at all to young people.

You believed and promoted the whole "it is only a NYC problem" and "it is going away in the summer" and "there is a magic protective bubble around Texas" and "Masks don't help" theories that have to this point killed 5K more people in Texas than would have otherwise. Now you are claiming the virus will magically disappear in August and not come back. TEXAS CITIES WANTED TO ENFORCE MASK WEARING WEEKS BEFORE THE GOVERNMENT SAID WE SHOULD DO IT, AND HE BARRED THEM FROM PUTTING RULES IN PLACE. TELLING PEOPLE TO WEAR MASKS HAD NO IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY, AND WOULD HAVE SAVED THOUSANDS OF LIVES.

You don't have to shut the economy down. But wearing masks in public places and indoors, and limiting time in indoor environments doesn't force the economy to shut down. You have already killed 5K people. Perhaps you should stop making asinine suggestions before that number grows higher.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby Water Pony » Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:09 pm

No, I am not disappointed in those who share the facts about the disease and how we should respond.

I will concede that children under 10 are less susceptible to the virus, but they are not immune to it. They can contract it and spread to family members, classmates and their families, and, especially adults, who assume greater risks when interacting with kids. Teachers, cafeteria workers, bus drivers, custodians and others in administration are adults, who will have to accept what should be unacceptable risks. Many of these adults are older and have chronic conditions themselves.

Further, the infected, who may be asymptotic, will unintentionally burden and stress our healthcare system. We are wearing these frontline healthcare workers out. The last six months for them may be in vain, as they will need to persist in delivering care at high risk to themselves for a long time, if we don’t have a commitment to slow this pandemic down to something manageable. Our per capita number of cases and deaths far exceed (6-10x) other developed countries. We are an outlier in managing this crisis and we are likely to experience surge over and over again, based on our current response and behavior.

No one should cheery pick the data. We need leadership and a national, acceptable recognition what are facts, risks and consequences of our actions or lack there of.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby mustangxc » Thu Aug 13, 2020 10:54 pm

Plus, as Sanjay Gupta stated, we don't really know how it affects children because schools shut down and children have largely been at home. There are plenty of examples of camps where it spread like wildfire. I hope that even if it does infect children at the same rate as every other age group, that few are burdened with serious consequences. No parent should ever have to bury their children.
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Re: Football this fall? No way

Postby Charleston Pony » Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:35 am

I think the key in all of this "it doesn't affect children" discussion is that children have in large part been almost as sheltered as the elderly (no summer camps, birthday parties, parks, fast food playlands, etc...). My wife and I care for our 2 and 4 yr old granddaughters and the lack of those opportunities has been rough, but the 4 yr old is going to try to go back to preschool in September. We all know that every new school year brings a crush of illnesses, so I have no reason to doubt that Covid will be among the diseases that will spread once kids are physically back in school.
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