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I have my biases and beliefs for sure, which I try to be fair and open about. But I don't appreciate the charge that I'm "cherry picking." I chose Texas because it's where SMU is, it's where most of the athletes and fans who attend athletic events live, the data is good, and we have (or at least had a few weeks ago) some reason to believe that the virus might behave differently in different climates.

I would like to see where someone claimed the climate had or might have an effect. I'd be interested to read up because I was unaware of that claim. I might as well learn something new.

And it's an innocent cherry pick, but still a cherry. I even said in my post Texas is looking good *now* but one should look at the bigger picture. I didn't mean it as a "you're doing this on purpose in bad faith" type of thing though.

You know, I’ve never been in any type of major car accident my entire life, but I still wear my seatbelt and absolutely demand that my kids do as well, regardless of what the laws may be.

In these uncertain times, why people wouldn’t take the extra precaution of wearing masks when they are around high concentrations of other people is beyond me.

All the stores & restaurants in my community demand that you wear a mask before you can enter and I completely support that.

Only discomfort I have had was sitting in a waiting room at a car dealership yesterday for 4 hours. But when there was no one else around I did slip it under my nose to get some fresh air a few times. No issue at all for short errands.

What people need to understand is how high insurance rates are going to skyrocket when this is all over. That is what finally won the seat belt battle was the cost of car insurance if it was not adhered to.

malonish wrote:I would like to see where someone claimed the climate had or might have an effect. I'd be interested to read up because I was unaware of that claim. I might as well learn something new.

Here’s one example: https://www.wuft.org/news/2020/03/20/do ... -covid-19/

ponyboy wrote:

malonish wrote:I would like to see where someone claimed the climate had or might have an effect. I'd be interested to read up because I was unaware of that claim. I might as well learn something new.

Here’s one example: https://www.wuft.org/news/2020/03/20/do ... -covid-19/

Thanks for the link. Good read. I like the balance of conjecture making sure it said links were not proven would be monitored and that just hoping it would go away at a different season was not a great hope to have right now. I personally didn't think/know about how 88% of the world lives in the Northern hemisphere with similar climate levels. It makes sense I just never thought about it.

Back to the original topic of whether there will be a Fall College Football season, leaders in SEC, Big Ten and Pac12 are expressing increased concerns.

In a recent interview about the Big Ten, the Chicago Tribune reported the season is hanging by a thread. Even the mighty SEC and its Commissioner, Greg Sankey, has doubts about a Fall or Spring season.

In summary, there is little guidance nationally on how to make it happen safely. More universities are looking at virtual classes and governors are raising concerns, as well.

We are only weeks away from the Fall Term and I have heard nothing that suggests the season is locked-in and the academic year will be close to normal. Freshman may be invited on campus, perhaps little others.

So, what are the probabilities?

ponyboy wrote:

JasonB wrote:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html

That is where I get the IFR for Covid. It is the right source to use for calculating IFR if you care going to compare it with the 0.1 number, because they use similar mechanisms for calculating the people who don't get tested for Flu. It is apples to apples.

Jason, as I called out in the Around the Hilltop thread, the .5 to .65 IFR for COVID-19 is not an accurate number of what's happening in Texas. International data is highly suspect and these figures should not be thrown around as if they mean anything.

Look, I can understand your tendency to want to rely on "official CDC figures" rather than some schmo with Excel. But do the math yourself -- it's not rocket science. The only plug variable is the rate of those who catch corona and don't get an official test. I go with the CDC number on that: 10 untested for every 1 confirmed test.

All this tends to make one feel ok about a .24% IFR in Texas right now, especially when the CDC themselves (back in late May) estimated nationwide IFR at .26% These are not numbers that I'm pulling out of my rear end.

As scientists learn more, the CDC changes their model. That is why they are at a much higher IFR now.

Just think about it... with all of the people staying home, not traveling, not going to work, wearing masks, etc... How many infections are we at with Covid compared to a traditional flu season? Nationally, we are at a much, much smaller number of infections than a standard flu season. But yet we are already double the deaths of a bad flu season nationally. Just from that point, you have to realize that the IFR is significantly higher.

Even in Texas, the number of infections we have is way, way, way lower than we typically have in a flu season. There isn't a magical formula in Texas. The fact that other respiratory diseases have a strong impact on Texas should be a forewarning.

We are still two weeks away from hitting our peak deaths per day from Covid in Texas. If you look at the hospitalization numbers, they are holding steady. Which is good except when you realize that on average 100+ are leaving the hospital by dying every day.

The new case numbers have dropped, which is great, it means the changes July 2 are taking effect. Hopefully it means in two weeks that we will see the hospitalization number drop, and then a couple weeks later the deaths per day will start to drop. But even if we get lucky and only average 100 deaths per day for the next 30 days, that is 3K more deaths to add to that total. And the total number of Covid cases is still way, way under the number of flu cases in a flu season.

And I get that right now you can say NYC outweighs everything. But just wait a month. With the case numbers and hospitalizations in Texas, California, and Florida, all of those death numbers are going to change. The fact is that we are back to over 1000 people nationally, per day, dying from this thing. So there is no more NYC aberration. And there is still only a very small percentage of people nationally who have caught it.

I understand the bit about media trying to strike fear into people. But I think it is also important to recognize that certain voices have been wrong about this thing literally every step along the way. We need to keep infections in check until the medicine catches up.

Don't discount the mortality rate, because you are looking at 50K Texans dying before the end of the year if you have a significant number of Texans getting sick before the treatments are available.

Nationals Juan Soto just tested positive out at least 14 days in a 60 game season.

Daughter's freshman SMU classes this fall...four out of four online and both science labs in person. Still sharing a room with out of stater.

Hopefully Covid-19 significantly declines before Greek rush in the spring.

This shouldn't be happening in this country, and especially not in this state!

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coro ... 43257.html

Alex, I’ll take Sensationalistic Reporting for $200

I personally would prefer home hospice if I am beyond help.

ponyboy wrote:Alex, I’ll take Sensationalistic Reporting for $200

I'm sure it is the media's fault.

Reality - the rural hospitals send patients to urban centers for major treatments. Those urban centers are now filling up and not accepting patients from the rural locations.

There have been cross-state flights for the last week or so with patients sent from Brownsville up to Amarillo, because even the urban centers are having to share capacity.

mrydel wrote:I personally would prefer home hospice if I am beyond help.

Agreed.

Jason: I’m sorry to hear that there are capacity issues. Thankful for our healthcare workers.