Re: Football this fall? No way
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:25 am
Anyone catch the deaths added to the totals this week?
ponyboy wrote:By the way, per WebMD, "about 8 in 10 people who get COVID-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2, will get mildly sick." Most of those people with mild symptoms do not get any test whatsoever, which is why we're almost certainly way-over-estimating IFR. In my calcs I go with the CDC director's assumption that for every 11 people who get the virus, only 1 gets a test.
Speaking of which, I'm fairly certain that I got the virus about three or four weeks ago. It was a wierd thing I'd never experienced before -- low grade fever, dry cough, and lots of fatigue. But it just felt wierd, especially when I laid down. Like most folks, I just self-isolated and recovered at home. No official test.
mustangxc wrote:I heard that the Texas healthcare system reformulated its classification system and as a result there are an additional 600 deaths attributed to COVID-19. Not sure what changed in the classification system so I don't know what to think.
JasonB wrote:Ponyboy, I'd be interested in seeing three numbers from your data. First would be deaths/recoveries. Second is deaths/total number of positive tests from 4 weeks ago. Third is deaths/(number of positive tests from 4 weeks ago * 11). That will get all the data out, I woudl be interested in seeing those numbers.
ponyboy wrote:Ok, this is really funny. Just got an email from Baylor University that my son should have received his COVID-19 kit in the mail. He needs to complete and return today. If he tests positive, he can't come to school. If he tests negative, he can.
Um, if he tests positive today, he'll be over the thing before school begins. If he tests negative, he can still acquire COVID-19 before school begins -- and then proceed to infect all of the campus.
Bureaucracy: Making the world a better place for us all.
JasonB wrote:ponyboy wrote:Ok, this is really funny. Just got an email from Baylor University that my son should have received his COVID-19 kit in the mail. He needs to complete and return today. If he tests positive, he can't come to school. If he tests negative, he can.
Um, if he tests positive today, he'll be over the thing before school begins. If he tests negative, he can still acquire COVID-19 before school begins -- and then proceed to infect all of the campus.
Bureaucracy: Making the world a better place for us all.
Even the USVI requires a test three days before entry. That is absurd!
ponyboy wrote:JasonB wrote:Ponyboy, I'd be interested in seeing three numbers from your data. First would be deaths/recoveries. Second is deaths/total number of positive tests from 4 weeks ago. Third is deaths/(number of positive tests from 4 weeks ago * 11). That will get all the data out, I woudl be interested in seeing those numbers.
Here's all the data from 7/28:
Positive Tests -- Negative Tests -- Deaths -- Infected -- % of Population -- IFR
394,265--------3,082,661-----5,877----4,336,915------14.5%------0.254%
I'm currently using infections from 3 weeks ago/current deaths. If I change my IFR calculation to 4 weeks ago, the number is 0.334%. (Positive tests from 3 weeks ago = 2,316,435. 4 weeks ago = 1,759,846)
Does that give you what you're looking for? Or I can just email you my spreadsheet if you want to mess with the numbers. PM me if you'd like that.
Beautifully done. Where did you get this data?
It is important to consider different effects on different groups; one size does not fit all. The controlling factor is the health of the immune system: a healthy system can fight off the virus while a compromised system struggles and occasionally fails, i.e., the patient dies.
An overwhelmed health care system will lead to more deaths, so spreading out the cases can help.
Also, even if a patient doesn’t die, how miserable will he be and what may be the long-term consequences of his illness? These consequences worry me and I’m scared to death of a respirator.
So it seems to me that we will continue for some time to need to strike an ever-changing balance between health (including mental health) and our economic needs. Statistics like yours, constantly updated, are vital to maintaining the balance (as best we can.)
People just need to remember that it is not much of a solution to survive the pandemic in abject poverty and mass starvation. That is going to be the fate of much of the world, I fear.
JasonB wrote:If you combine the past two weeks with the next two weeks, we will equal the number of deaths in a one month period that we normally hit in a flu season in Texas.
ponyboy wrote:JasonB wrote:If you combine the past two weeks with the next two weeks, we will equal the number of deaths in a one month period that we normally hit in a flu season in Texas.
Yep. Unless something materially changes (e.g. reaching "herd immunity" or another some such barrier to the continued growth), I think you're right about this point, for two reasons:
1. As expected, the daily deaths curve took a sharp turn for the worse in early July -- from an average of about 30 deaths per day (a figure we'd consistently been seeing for the three months leading up to that date) to what looks to be about 300 deaths per day today. And looking at the curve, I do think we could easily find ourselves in the 500 deaths per day region by mid August.
2. Normal flu season is 6,500 deaths. We're at about 2,316 new deaths in the last two weeks. And I'd estimate we'll get another 5,250 in the next two weeks, given the direction of the curve right now. (Total deaths are currently 6,190).
If this happens, by mid August we'll be very to close my estimate from a few weeks back that total COVID-19 deaths in Texas would end up at about 10.5K when all is said and done. (And I predicted that this thing would be "played out" by August 31st). It'll be interesting to see whether we do get over that hump soon and start reversing course.