gostangs wrote:This is what I mentioned several weeks ago and seems to be holding true. Weather or not T-cells provide immunity or just a heavy resistance - it has the same effect - herd immunity when exposure to the virus reaches around 20%. Look at every graph in every geography around the country and world - they look virtually the same. When it hits close to 20% exposure it heads back down. Ours in DFW also looks the same and is now very low after a peak back in August.
Masks might help - so I wear one. But they also might have very little impact. The downward curve may just be the virus running its course like they all do. The most neurotic masked up state in the union (California) had their run up while everyone wore masks. So many are just so invested in the fear because that's the kind of person they are - they cant let go. Those are the people that invent all kinds of "lingering effects" which are completely conjecture since this is 6 months old. Others like the drama due to a political cycle (you can tell who - they bring it up constantly). That is probably why the media reports only the sensational - when is the last time you saw the DMN with a headline - "COVID cases in Dallas county down by 90%"
The world is opening back up and quickly - organizations who don't realize this are costing themselves dearly for no reason - as the Big 10 just realized. And its not just money - but they are costing others (students) their experiences and lifelong memories, over a disease with a 99.7% recovery rate - even if you catch it. I personally would go to any large gathering right now with no concerns - its just not that prevalent any longer.
1) t cells impact severity, not immunity. It would not cause herd immunity at 20%.
2) all countries shut things down after infections rise, and reopen after they drop. That is why we hit peaks.
3) I would encourage everyone to take a peak outside of the US. Cases are rising again in Italy, Spain, Germany, UK etc. They were shut down all summer and then opened at the end, and they are seeing the numbers creep back up. It would be awesome if 20% was a magic mark, but unfortunately, there is a very low probability that it would actually happen.
4) One of the reasons to doubt the magic 20% mark is that early on in the pandemic, if you recall, there were several mass transmission events. Think about the church choir in Washington, for example. Or the LSU football team. If the 20% number were an actual thing, then you wouldn't have events where a significant percentage of participants contracted the disease.