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Info on T Cell / COVID business

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Re: Info on T Cell / COVID business

Postby JasonB » Tue Sep 29, 2020 4:35 pm

ponyboy wrote:Image

Actually, I did find some data on the CDC site and created this pie chart. Note that the data did not include accidents or suicide. But here you go.


Thanks, I knew it was on there, because I have run it before... I just hadn't seen it in a while. Was curious if it dropped down from 3rd. Under some of the middle age groups I think it got up to second, but then it is way down the ranking on the lowest age group.

I worry that deaths and cases have started to flatten out and and we haven't hit the low points from early in the summer yet. If things start to tick back up, we are at a much higher starting point unfortunately.

To put things into context, we run about 45K suicides per year as a country annually. So, when people talk about a 30% increase in suicides, it is an extra 15K. 3/4 of the way through the year, so an extra 12K so far.

We have about 70K drug overdose deaths per year in the US. so if we are running 30% over, that is an extra 21K. 3/4 of the way through, so an extra 16K.

At this point we have 250K excess deaths (the number of people who die annually in the US is 2.8M, and it is a remarkably stable number). 28K to the causes above, and the rest are Covid.
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Re: Info on T Cell / COVID business

Postby ponyboy » Tue Sep 29, 2020 4:39 pm

Good thoughts. I believe it to be the case that a good portion of the suicide and overdose deaths are due to heavy-handed government restrictions and unnecessary fear-mongering. Not to mention the enormous overall effect on mental health and well being of these measures and approaches.

Some of that cannot be fixed -- I'm afraid we're stuck with our sensationalistic media. But government needs to get out of the business of bossing its citizens around. They work for us, not the other way around.
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Re: Info on T Cell / COVID business

Postby JasonB » Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:07 am

ponyboy wrote:Good thoughts. I believe it to be the case that a good portion of the suicide and overdose deaths are due to heavy-handed government restrictions and unnecessary fear-mongering. Not to mention the enormous overall effect on mental health and well being of these measures and approaches.

Some of that cannot be fixed -- I'm afraid we're stuck with our sensationalistic media. But government needs to get out of the business of bossing its citizens around. They work for us, not the other way around.


It's part of the equation. The restrictions can be directly correlated to the increase in suicides and overdose. But they pale in comparison to the number of additional deaths avoided to this point.

For example, we can all see that as we have learned better treatments (don't use respirators straight away, it really isn't like pneumonia, and use the steroids), the death rate has gone down. So we didn't see as high of a death rate in Texas compared to NYC.

If we hadn't shut things down, so the virus had the opportunity to spread into Texas back in April or May, how many more people would have died in Texas? NYC? California? Flordia? According to statistical models, you are talking about hundreds of thousands of additional deaths.

What we have to weigh is suicide deaths + overdose deaths + monetary loss vs. hundreds of thousands of additional deaths + people with longterm issues + hospital/medical costs.

As we go on with time, there are two variables in the equation that change. 1) we learn more about the behaviors that cause spread, so we don't have to close the economy down as much to prevent spread. This reduces the monetary loss part of the equation. 2) we learn how to treat the disease better, which reduces the impact of not reducing the spread in terms of death, long term issues, and medical costs.

As time goes on, the changes in those variables allow you to take more risky actions that will favor the left hand side of the equation. But doing that a little too soon, as we did in the summer, causes unnecessary growth on the right hand side of the equation.
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Re: Info on T Cell / COVID business

Postby EastStang » Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:36 am

One new side effect of COVID. No more snow days for children. We're distance learning today. No more waiting for the late night weather report to see if no school. And here we thought climate change would do that.
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Re: Info on T Cell / COVID business

Postby Charleston Pony » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:52 pm

All I know is that Covid combined with the traditional "sick season" is going to make it really tough for both college and pro football to finish this season with any sense of "normalcy"
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Re: Info on T Cell / COVID business

Postby JasonB » Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:46 pm

Social distancing squashed the flu season in the southern hemisphere. Hopefully it will have a similar impact here.

Active hospitalizations in Texas are starting to slowly rise again, ever since the beginning of the month. We saw an increase in infections after labor day, and now we are seeing another bump the last couple of days since the declaration to open the bars.

Not close to where things were at in the summer, but worth keeping an eye on to make sure they don't get out of hand.

I'll be pleasantly surprised if we can keep things in check prior to Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, I think Thanksgiving is going to spread everything like crazy.
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Re: Info on T Cell / COVID business

Postby EastStang » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:02 am

No turkey, no sweet potatoes, no green bean casserole, no stuffing, no Hawaiian rolls. Oh the humanity!!
"Student Athletes, so that's what you call your slaves" - Eric Cartman 2011
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Re: Info on T Cell / COVID business

Postby ponyboy » Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:52 am

Here's the latest on Texas mortalities:

Image
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Re: Info on T Cell / COVID business

Postby JasonB » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:36 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

Cases and hospitalizations have been trending up since Oct 1. We will see deaths trend back up in the next two weeks. Unfortunately, we haven't gotten back down to pre-surge levels and now the real respiratory illness season is about to start.
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Re: Info on T Cell / COVID business

Postby gostangs » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:40 pm

https://public.tableau.com/profile/city ... ionalCases


Cases in Dallas have been relatively flat - 589 yesterday. Not a huge number for an area of our size, and very few fatalities. NY times loves to scare people because it drives traffic to their site.
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Re: Info on T Cell / COVID business

Postby JasonB » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:35 am

gostangs wrote:https://public.tableau.com/profile/cityofdallasdtxinnovationteam/vizhome/CityofDallasCOVID-19Dashboard/Dashboard1#!/vizhome/Book3_15862351183220/DFWRegionalCases


Cases in Dallas have been relatively flat - 589 yesterday. Not a huge number for an area of our size, and very few fatalities. NY times loves to scare people because it drives traffic to their site.


The growth we are seeing in Texas right now is largely being driven from El Paso.

There is no manipulation to the NYT data, it is just data, left to your own devices to explore and come to conclusions. It also has the county breakdown so that you can see how Dallas area counties have been flat.
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