PonySnob wrote:Harry0569 wrote:Predictions for 1st & 2nd Round Games (per KenPom on 3/6)
UCF defeats Memphis (65-64; 55% win probability)
UCONN defeats USF (72-57; 92%)
Tulsa defeats Tulane (78-73; 70%)
Temple defeats ECU (67-62; 68%)
Tulane didn't seem have too much of an issue with Tulsa on Sunday
I agree that Tulane has improved a lot, but they are a consistently bad road team. Tulsa not as bad.
Which got me to thinking, how does each AAC team do away from home? I compiled the road/neutral records for each:
Road/ Neutral/ Combined Non-Home
SMU 8-3/ 1-1/ 9-4
Cincinnati 8-3/ 1-1/ 9-4
Houston 6-5/ 3-0/ 9-5
UCF 6-6/ 1-1/ 7-7
Memphis 4-7/ 1-1/ 5-8
UCONN 4-8/ 1-2/ 5-10
Tulsa 3-9/ 1-2/ 4-11
Temple 4-8/ 3-0/ 7-8
ECU 1-11/ 1-1/ 2-12
Tulane 2-10/ 0-3/ 2-13
USF 1-11/ 0-0/ 1-11
The non-home records correspond strongly to each team's respective seed, with the exception of Temple, which has the 5th best non-home record but is the 8th seed. UCONN is effectively playing a home game, of course, so not sure how relevant this as a predictor of its chances.
We are 9-1 in road games, post-Aussies, so this bodes well for us as a predictor.
Based on non-home record alone, I would expect the probability of winning the tournament, from highest to lowest, to be as follows:
SMU
Cinn
Hou
UCONN
UCF
Temple
Memphis
Tulsa
ECU
Tulane
USF
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