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Sneaky big weekend in the AAC

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Sneaky big weekend in the AAC

Postby JasonB » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:52 am

SMU, Tulsa, and Cincy with difficult road games.
Wichita State has almost a must win @Houston.

Houston and Cincy could start to distance from the rest of the pack... or, just as easily, it could become an even tighter race among the top 6 in the league.

It is starting to become go time. SMU and Tulsa either make a point to stay on that bubble, or they put themselves in very difficult positions. No in-between. Neither loss would be bad enough to kill the resume, but neither team can really afford to miss chances right now.

My gut is telling me that Houston and Cincy win, Tulsa and SMU lose, and the conference race is a two horse race from this point forward. But I hope I am wrong about that.
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Re: Sneaky big weekend in the AAC

Postby Charleston Pony » Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:09 pm

After that 1st half start I was hoping you were wrong but it's just a safe bet to expect this team to lose on the road. Don't know how they were able to hang on against Memphis

Update - we now know how our guys were able to beat Memphis at their place after seeing USF do the same thing!

Pretty clear that Houston and Cincy are the class of this year's AAC. I will be surprised if WSU can beat the Cougs in Houston tomorrow
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Re: Sneaky big weekend in the AAC

Postby JasonB » Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:25 pm

Cincy lost, so I was wrong on that one. But Tulsa is going to hit a free fall here for the rest of the season I think. Everyone outside of Cincy pretty much did as expected.

Tough games left:
Houston: @SMU, Tulsa, @Memphis, Cincy, @UConn, Memphis
Cincy: Memphis, Wichita, @Houston, Temple
Tulsa: @Houston, SMU, @Temple, @Wichita State
Memphis: @Cincy, @UConn, Houston, @SMU, Wichita, @Houston
Wichita: @Cincy, Temple @SMU, @Memphis, Tulsa
SMU: UConn, Houston, @Tulsa, Memphis, Wichita

Houston is the best team in the league. I thin they have 3 losses left. They will finish 14-4 or 13-5.
Cincy is the second best team, and have the least games agaisnt hard teams. 1 or 2 losses left, 14-4 or 13-5.
Tulsa is about to implode I think. 11-7 or 10-8.
Memphis is really struggling and have the hardest schedule. 5 losses, 9-9.
Wichita I think might have 4 losses left with that schedule. 10-8 or 9-9.
SMU has a difficult schedule, but most of the hard games are at home. 2 losses would put them at 12-6, clearly the third placed team in the league. 22-8 overall. Very solid NIT team, maybe on the NCAA bubble because of all the Tier 2 opportunities, but probably not. Any additional losses bumps a team below them up the ladder, and will put SMU on the NIT bubble. Going 7-1 *might* be enough to get SMU a second place finish and an NCAA bid, but I think the only way to the NCAA would be to run the table and tie for first in conference.
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Re: Sneaky big weekend in the AAC

Postby Charleston Pony » Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:55 pm

Don't discount road games at even the lower tier teams in this league. Everyone has proved they can lose games on the road they weren't supposed to
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Re: Sneaky big weekend in the AAC

Postby JasonB » Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:34 pm

Wed and Thurs - another big swing point.

Tulsa, Houston, Cincy will win. Memphis and Wichita will lose again.

SMU will have a chance to pull 2 games ahead of Wichita and keep within a game of Tulsa. A loss against UConn will really hurt the NIT chances at this point, and put us 2 games out of that third place spot.
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Re: Sneaky big weekend in the AAC

Postby sadderbudweiser » Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:03 pm

LOL..... 7-1???????

Jason I need you dealer’s phone number.

I know it says “if” before that but I’m more like....

“If we go one better than .500.....”

I have no idea if we can beat anyone but I know we are capable of losing to everyone.
Party at The Wopper!
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Re: Sneaky big weekend in the AAC

Postby The Falcon » Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:04 pm

We are also capable of beating anyone. One of these days we are going to play two complete
halves on the road and we are capable of beating anyone at home.
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Re: Sneaky big weekend in the AAC

Postby JasonB » Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:07 pm

I didn't say it was likely. Just that is what we would need to do to even have a shot at the NCAA bubble.

Before the temple game, I said I thought we would go 5-4 the rest of the way. 11-9 in conference, 19-11 and on the bubble for the NIT.
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Re: Sneaky big weekend in the AAC

Postby skyscraper » Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:05 pm

We are not and will not be on the NCAA bubble. Period.
We are a borderline NIT team.
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Re: Sneaky big weekend in the AAC

Postby Charleston Pony » Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:20 pm

JasonB wrote:Before the temple game, I said I thought we would go 5-4 the rest of the way. 11-9 in conference, 19-11 and on the bubble for the NIT.


Before the Temple game, going 5-4 in the 2nd half would result in an 11-7 conference finish for 21-9 regular season finish. Would be nice to pull that off and unless we then get whipped in the 1st round of the AAC Tourney, should be good enough for the NIT
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Re: Sneaky big weekend in the AAC

Postby JasonB » Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:38 am

Charleston Pony wrote:
JasonB wrote:Before the temple game, I said I thought we would go 5-4 the rest of the way. 11-9 in conference, 19-11 and on the bubble for the NIT.


Before the Temple game, going 5-4 in the 2nd half would result in an 11-7 conference finish for 21-9 regular season finish. Would be nice to pull that off and unless we then get whipped in the 1st round of the AAC Tourney, should be good enough for the NIT


Thanks for correcting my math :).

The challenge is that if we go 5-4 and finish 11-7, we are going to finish in the same realm as Memphis and Wichita State, who will both get selected to the NIT over us. So, it would come down to us or Tulsa or neither. If we only get 2 bids to the NCAA, more than three in the NIT would seem unreasonable, and two might be more likely.
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Re: Sneaky big weekend in the AAC

Postby Charleston Pony » Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:05 pm

Never know what might happen in the AAC Tourney but I tend to agree we will do well to see two AAC teams in the NCAA. I agree that probably only 3 teams make the NIT so I expect 5 of the current top 6 in the AAC to be playing in the post season. I don't recall whether the conference prohibits teams from playing in the CBI but a 6th team could go that route if they value an extended season. I'd like to think SMU has moved past that
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