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Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

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Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

Postby JasonB » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:45 pm

First of all, as that game went along, I thought we deserved to lose. Amazing that we actually won that game. But it showed our warts. For the rest of the season, I want us to win as much as possible, but we just don't look like the best team in the league right now, which is a little disappointing because I thought we would be. I think I am looking at 8-3, but who knows, honestly.

Anyway, assuming this is the midway point, because another game is bound to get cancelled, I'll do a review of positions so far.

- Shane is amazing. He was way off early in the game, poor accuracy. And then boom, he is just money in the second half and especially at the end of the game. That pass to Tyler Page on the long play at the end of regulation was right on the money and in stride.
- When was the last time SMU had a kicker where, with a great QB, we would just run up the middle three times and settle for the 35 yard field goal and kick it. Dykes has massive trust in Naggar. Maybe he comes back to get enough pro tape? You can only hope.
- What an amazing recovery and hold by Green. He does a phenomenal job.
- It is a bummer not to see Tamerik out there at RB. Bentley fills the West role, and 31 is Freeman. But we need the X role as well. He had two weeks to grab the role, and the fact that he didn't is going to be a major gap in the running game for the rest of the season. Bentley gave it his all, but there were a couple of plays in the 4th where he didn't have that shimmy because he had been run all game long. He missed a TD run and a long run out in the flat, and I think it is because he was used more than his frame could handle. This will restrict our offense against better teams. Kind of like when X went down two years ago and the running game was meh the rest of the year.
- Really a bummer that TQ or Wiggins couldn't win the Roberson job. Instead, 5 takes the X and Page comes in. Nothing against Page, he was fantastic last night. But Gray is in and out of the game constantly. TQ and Wiggins are both really young. But it is a shame they couldn't win the starting job over the last 2 weeks. It is another thing that will constrain the offense. A great offense covers the defense. An above average offense loses a couple of shootouts.
- On the OL, I think we can safely say that we haven't seen the step forward from Thomas, Ali, and Howerton we were hoping for this year. They are solid, probably a little above average in the league. But none have become a dominant blocker. Surprised to see Thomas struggle as much as he did last night. There aren't any big holes or anything. Even 64 came in and did a solid job. But it is just a bunch of solid players. We missed 51, because he is the one guy on the line who can physically dominate an opponent. But as we saw against Texas State, when he isn't playing, the line is very average. It isn't bad by any stretch. It just isn't the "good" line that I was hoping for going into the season.
- DT, again, disappointed that in the two weeks, Williams and Levelson didn't step up and grab the starting jobs. Williams didn't get a lot of PT last night, which really surprised me. There is talent at the spot with 99, 91, 40, 33. Just massive inexperience. They don't stay with their assignments and pull themselves out of lanes trying to make a play, instead of letting other players do their job. Really hurt us on some of the QB scrambles. This is going to be a really, really good group in a year or so. Best we have seen in a while. But right now the inexperience hurts. If you had 57 starting at the nose with 40 and 91 behind him, that would be the best rotation in the conference. But it is just inexperienced with 57 getting spot time. If you had Levelston starting with 99 and 33 behind him, again, that is phenomenal. But Levelston just isn't there yet. Give it a year and it will be great. But right now it isn't strong enough in a 3 man front to absorb double teams, and doesn't stay disciplined in the 4 man front.
- DE drives me nuts. We ran a little more 4 down during the game. Which was great to see. But how many times did we see 90 line up super wide and they just hit the hole between the guard and the tackle for a massive gain? What made Scott great last year, is that he would engage the blocker and not rely on speed to win. It was a massive change as he matured at SMU. Coxe did that last year, but this year he is being played off the line most of the time when he is in, so he doesn't even have the chance to engage the tackle. 90, 55, and 38 just try and speed around the end every time, and it opens up the gap. I think this explains why they moved to so much 3-4. This is another area where those guys might get physical next year and see a massive improvement. But their lack of lane discipline and inability to beat anyone other than with a speed move is why we got gashed in the second quarter so bad, and also why we gave up so many scrambles to the QB. It has been a little disappointing.
- LB - McBryde has been amazing. Robinson shows up some times, Hailey shows up some times. Denbow had his best game of the season. But right now in the running game, either McBryde stuffs it or it is a 5 yard pickup. They are getting exposed by the lack of productivity in front of them. But we have a little ways to go, clearly. Our safeties are making a ton of tackles in the running game still.
- CB - Part of me is pissed about the first TD pass and that long 3rd down. But I'll also acknowledge that those were fantastic throws. After watching the Tulane game against Houston, I really thought our corners would have an opportunity to make plays. Crossely did at the end (why isn't he starting?), but overall I don't know if they played up to expectations. I continue to be surprised that we don't play more nickel to get all three of the corners on the field. Take off Denbow and replace with Crossley in the slot on that 3rd and long. I'm not sure where Westfall is, but it seems like 29 isn't horrible, and Massey is super athletic. So, it seems like we could afford to play more nickel. 4-2-5. We just don't see it. But this group is pretty solid overall, just 5 and 23 aren't making as many plays as we saw at the beginning of last season.
- S - This is going to be a really good group. 21 is always around the ball. Super inexperienced and inconsistent, but they all seem to be athletic and can run. Honestly, 11 seems to be the only one that is a one dimensional player - awesome against the run, not as great against the pass. The rest of them are just good quality safeties. Should be fantastic next year.
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

Postby Charleston Pony » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:17 am

Agree with a lot of what you said...especially the projected 8-3 finish, which is still a pretty good season by our post death penalty standards. This does not look like a top 25 team or even an AAC title contender but hopefully these guys will continue to improve and maybe even prove us wrong before the end of this season. Bottom line is that our offense has to be outstanding as our defense is not alone in it's inability to make stops. The college game is becoming a track meet with so many talented players on the offensive side of the ball and everyone spreading the field the way they do. Just look at that Memphis/UCF game yesterday (whoever has the last possession wins...or should have) and look at the Clemson game for what happens when you have a complete mismatch of athletes and speed. While we all wish someone else would step up at RB & WR, at least we have enough athletes to compete and games like the one this week at Tulane are nerve racking but very entertaining. We aren't that far removed from the final year of JJ and those early Chad years where all too often we were not even competitive and really painful to watch.
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

Postby SMU_Alum11 » Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:49 am

Great analysis as always Jason.

Maybe for a different thread but I think we go 9-2 if we can't get that TCU game rescheduled.

Cincy - I've looked at their schedule and it's not polished either. I think them losing a game and practice time via COVID and the travel to Dallas puts us in some favorable conditions so long as it's good weather. I think we can win this one.

Navy- i think we can beat them. Not as scary as in the past.

Temple - looks rusty and I think should be a W

Tulsa and Houston are the two losses I can see happening. They will be motivated to knock us off in the top 10. I think that either one or the other will be considered the trap game.

ECU - should be a W.
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

Postby mustangxc » Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:00 am

ECU, USF, and Temple are must wins. I think we should at the very least split if not win 3 against Houston, Cincinnati, Tulsa, and Navy.

9-10 wins should be the expectation for an 11 game season.
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

Postby Donnell88 » Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:47 am

mustangxc wrote:ECU, USF, and Temple are must wins. I think we should at the very least split if not win 3 against Houston, Cincinnati, Tulsa, and Navy.

9-10 wins should be the expectation for an 11 game season.


I don't think we can characterize USF as a "must win." We don't play USF.
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

Postby JasonB » Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:37 pm

The Navy game is a real concern for me with the lack of discipline on the defensive line. I see a lot of 3-4 yard carries resulting in really long touchdown drives that eat clock and leave our offensive on the sidelines.

Don't get me wrong - I would love for us to compete for a conference championship. And 8-3 or 8-2 isn't anything to sneeze at. I'm just saying that I don't think we are ready to be considered "favorites" to win the conference.

An additional thought:
OU, Texas, OSU, I State, K State, TCU
versus
Cincy, UCF, SMU, Memphis, Houston, Tulsa

I think I like the odds of our top 6 against their top 6?
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

Postby H-E-B Mustang » Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:22 pm

I'm wondering who is going to be our punt returner. Jackson was in for the first three punts. He had one fumble and negative net yardage. Tyler Page went in to field the last punt and he had a decent return. Jackson is just a freshman. Maybe we let him try again.
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

Postby mustangxc » Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:29 am

Donnell88 wrote:
mustangxc wrote:ECU, USF, and Temple are must wins. I think we should at the very least split if not win 3 against Houston, Cincinnati, Tulsa, and Navy.

9-10 wins should be the expectation for an 11 game season.


I don't think we can characterize USF as a "must win." We don't play USF.


You're right! I knew we didn't play UCF but didn't realize we don't play either Florida school this season.
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

Postby EastStang » Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:46 am

Perhaps they put Jackson back there again after another week of practice, but if he runs backwards during practice or fumbles the ball, 20 push ups. Maybe that will help him to focus.
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

Postby Charleston Pony » Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:27 am

Jackson could run horizontally in high school and get to the edge because he was faster than most guys but that's just not going to get it done at this level
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

Postby JasonB » Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:51 am

You could see the assistant coach after his last return telling him just that.
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

Postby HubbaHubba » Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:20 pm

H-E-B Mustang wrote:I'm wondering who is going to be our punt returner. Jackson was in for the first three punts. He had one fumble and negative net yardage. Tyler Page went in to field the last punt and he had a decent return. Jackson is just a freshman. Maybe we let him try again.


How about we let Page do the returns this week and let Jackson gain experience against Navy and Temple?
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

Postby CJPONY16 » Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:52 pm

Just my opinion, I think some might be putting too much weight on this game. Weekday games always get weird, and it was our first game trying to work out the kinks of not having Reggie and TJ. Kinda felt like the TxState game (put up a ton of yards, but not the points) where we were searching for our identity at times. Were a different team without Reggie and TJ. I think they had to work through some of that. Hopefully they learn a lot from the tape and make adjustments this week.

*I reserve the right to be wrong about this and change my opinion later.
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

Postby ponyboy » Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:28 pm

Charleston Pony wrote:Jackson could run horizontally in high school and get to the edge because he was faster than most guys but that's just not going to get it done at this level


Am I the only one to notice that Jackson got run into by his own man? Not sure anyone would’ve caught that punt. He’s getting beat up for nothing.
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the season (and some Tulane)

Postby mustangxc » Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:37 pm

That was very frustrating to watch!
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