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Wide receiver James Proché and quarterback Shane Buechele have had excellent starts to the 2019 season, but who did Nate name as his First Half Offensive MVP? (photo by Max Franklin). |
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PonyFans.com is proud to have 19-year-old Nate back as a guest columnist. This time, he breaks down the Mustangs' performance through the first half of the season and hands out his mid-season awards.Feel free to post comments and constructive criticism, ask him questions, and/or give suggestions for upcoming columns! (He can be followed on Twitter at @Pony_NATE_tion.)
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SMU has quickly risen to become one of the biggest and most remarkable stories in college football this season, due to its 6-0 start that has included some impressive, some dominant and some flat-out wild wins. The Ponies jumped two spots up to No. 19 in both the coaches poll and the Associated Press poll following the bye week as they head into Saturday’s huge matchup with Temple in Dallas. In his second season on the Hilltop, head coach Sonny Dykes has his team bowl-eligible by early October, a feat that has customarily been accomplished by SMU around late November.
First, let’s look at the general preseason outlook. Las Vegas’ over/under on wins for the Ponies was set at six. I viewed them as a five- to seven-win team that had a ton of talent, but a difficult schedule would hold them back. As it has turned out, I was correct, but there were a few things I did not anticipate about this team.
1. We knew this coaching staff was solid, with two budding stars at offensive and defensive coordinator. OC Rhett Lashlee and DC Kevin Kane have done superb jobs with the offense and defense, respectively. Defensively, while total game numbers might not be as gaudy, this is a big-play defense that creates tons of splash plays like sacks and interceptions. The offense is creative as ever and does a very nice job mixing deep shots with a powerful run game, which is a great segue into my next point...
2. The offensive line has been night-and-day from its performance last year. New offensive line coach A.J. Ricker has done a great job revamping an o-line that generated no ground game and got Ben Hicks killed. So far SMU is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and has scored 22 touchdowns on the ground, while keeping new quarterback Shane Buechele clean as he has been sacked just six times. Compare that to a year ago when the Mustangs averaged just a bit over three yards per carry and scored 17 rushing touchdowns the whole season, while surrendering 31 sacks.
3. The defense’s timeliness and splash plays have been huge. SMU is ranked fifth nationally with 26 sacks, holding opponents to 33 percent on third downs (ranked 28th) and creates takeaways, as it is ranked 12th with 13 takeaways. There are plenty more stats that suggest this is a good defense, but those are the three any defensive coach would highlight first. Generating pressure, creating takeaways and getting off the field on third down are essential, and Kane’s unit is superb in all three of those categories.
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(photo by Max Franklin). |
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4. SMU’s front seven figured to be a rather productive unit this year, but what has stood out has been the secondary. There were plenty of questions about who would step up with the losses of safeties Mikial Onu and Elijah McQueen. But safety/linebacker Patrick Nelson has emerged as a Swiss Army knife for the defense to lead the team in tackles with 38 to go along with 5.5 sacks, a pick and a fumble recovery. Safety Rodney Clemons and cornerbacks Ar’mani Johnson and Brandon Stephens have emerged as true playmakers in the secondary, combining for five picks, 16 pass breakups and a pick-six (by Johnson against Tulsa).
As far as team MVPs are concerned, in the season preview I tagged wide receiver James Proché as my offensive MVP, linebacker Richard Moore as my defensive MVP and transfer tight end Kedrick James as my breakout player. Some things have shaken out differently than anticipated thus far.
To no one’s surprise, Proché has been nothing short of marvelous so far, with 529 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 11.7 yards per catch. His signature performance against Tulsa was spectacular, as he helped lead SMU on its epic 21-point fourth-quarter comeback. He finished the day with 153 yards and two touchdowns. Buechele had a 138.8 passer rating when he targeted the star wideout, as Proché created 3.56 yards per route run, according to Pro Football Focus.
Proché’s two touchdown catches were both absurdly difficult catches. The first was a beautifully placed deep ball that only Proché could get to, and he laid out to snag it with one hand in the back of the end zone on a “go” route … and everyone saw his game-winning catch in the third overtime, an aggressive back-shoulder fade route that was very well placed by Buechele as Proché went up and got it. He initially was ruled out of bounds, but on further review, it was clear that he somehow got his left foot down and possessed the ball all the way to the ground despite the tight coverage.
His performance in the comeback earned him both National and American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Week. He has absolutely been the best player on this offense.
My defensive MVP was Moore, who was playing well until an injury in practice ended his season before the TCU game. Through six games, the best player on this defense has been Nelson. He is flat-out a playmaker who is always around the ball.
Kane deploys him in so many ways and he has been especially effective as a pass rusher as he is second on the team in sacks with 5.5, trailing only defensive end Delontae Scott, who has 8.5. Nelson is SMU’s leading tackler with 38 and has also compiled a pass breakup, an interception, a fumble recovery and a quarterback hurry. He has been the definition of a playmaker.
While my breakout player, Kedrick James, had his transfer waiver of eligibility denied, there have been several candidates to claim the title from him. The one I want to highlight is sophomore corner Ar’mani Johnson. Several have stepped up in SMU’s secondary, which was riddled with question marks coming into 2019. Johnson leads the team in pass breakups with seven and is second with two picks. His coverage has been outstanding and frankly, SMU would not have beaten Tulsa without him. Until the fourth quarter, Johnson’s first quarter pick-six was SMU’s only touchdown, and while the comeback was great, one key play that many forget about is his interception in the end zone right before halftime as Tulsa had driven all the way down the field and was looking for a 30-9 halftime lead. This was an enormous play and helped stop the bleeding in a big way.
What to expect in the second half of the seasonAfter this incredible 6-0 start, expectations have risen significantly as the Mustangs now have their sights set firmly on the AAC Championship Game, and even further down the road, a bid to a New Year’s Six Bowl if the Ponies end up as the highest ranked Group of Five team. SMU obviously controls its own destiny, but the back half of its schedule includes some tricky matchups.
The good news? SMU is talented enough and has demonstrated that it can beat anyone on its schedule. The bad news? The remaining opponents on the schedule have a combined 24-11 record, and it includes four teams — Temple, Memphis, Navy and Tulane — that have just one loss each on their ledger through six weeks. The best way of going about these final six games is to not change a thing and approach them like SMU approached its first six games: go 1-0 every week and don’t look ahead.
I feel that SMU is better than all its remaining opponents, but this is college football and weird things happen in this sport. One or two slipups wouldn’t be the least bit surprising, but anything less than nine wins would be a large disappointment considering the start. I won’t give away my future game-specific predictions, but I feel that SMU is the best team in the conference and will finish with a 12-1 record and a conference title. That is how much I believe in this coaching staff and team leadership. Even with that record, the team that provides that single loss would greatly affect whether SMU wins the AAC West Division, but I think SMU is better than Tulane and Navy.
Get ready for a wild second half of 2019.