It wasn’t supposed to be this way for the UCF Golden Knights. They were predicted in the preseason to win Conference USA. Yes, star running back Kevin Smith bolted early for the NFL — he was drafted by the Detroit Lions — but the perception was that UCF remains loaded with talent. Even without Smith, many considered the Golden Knights the prohibitive favorites to roll to the conference title.

But things haven’t gone as planned in Orlando. After UCF blanked South Carolina State, 17-0, in the opener, the Golden Knights have dropped three straight games, falling to South Florida and Boston College, and then getting blasted, 58-13, last week at UTEP.

So the SMU Mustangs can look at their next opponent in two different ways: UCF is either a struggling team that is circling the drain, threatening to lose its season, or the Golden Knights represent the proverbial wounded animal, fighting to survive and lethal because of talent and desperation.

Thanks largely to the beating endured Saturday in El Paso, the Golden Knights have been outscored this year, 123-61, or an average of 30.8-15.2 per game.

The UCF offense is fairly balanced, averaging 150.5 yards per game on the ground, and 132.5 per game through the air. Overall, the Golden Knights have been outgained by an average of 359.5 yards per game to 283.

OFFENSE

UCF might be without leading receiver Rocky Ross when they host SMU Saturday (photo by UCF athletic department).

Despite Smith’s departure, the UCF offense is geared around the run. Redshirt freshman Ronnie Weaver leads the way, running 64 times for 222 yards (3.2 yards per carry) through four games, for an average of 51.2 yards per game.

“They’re a very physical team,” linebacker Justin Smart said. “They’re a lot like TCU and Tulane — they have a really good running back, and they go to him a lot. They’re going to run, run, run, and then try to hit a play-action pass.”

Smart said that while effective, Weaver is a different style of runner than the speedy Smith.

“He’s more of a downhill guy,” Smith said. “(Smith) was so fast — he’d hit the hole and then try to shake you in open space. This guy is probably a little more physical.”

After Weaver, UCF’s next two leading rushers are quarterbacks Michael Greco and Rob Calabrese, who average 6.0 and 6.5 yards per carry, respectively. Greco was the starter but injury forced him to miss the UTEP game. If healthy, defensive back Chris Castro says he expects to see both Saturday.

“They both run well,” Castro said. “They like to get the ball out quickly, but of they can’t, they can extend plays with their legs.”

The UCF offensive line averages just over 6-foot-4 and 299 pounds per man.

“They’re very physical,” Smart said. “They’re not as big as a line like Texas Tech’s — nobody’s line is that big — but they’re strong. What they do that’s different from a lot of lines is they disguise their blocking, and not a lot of teams do that. They’ll take a guard and a tackle and block a 3-technique (defensive tackle) like they’re running the ball, and then the quarterback will run a play-action pass. They do a nice job of things like that, we you can’t always get a clean read.”

The UCF passing game might be without a key weapon Saturday, as leading receiver Rocky Ross is questionable for the game. Ross averaged 23 yards on four receptions last year against SMU.

“He got hurt against UTEP,” Castro said. “I don’t know if he’ll be able to play or not. But they’ve got a lot of good receivers. They’re pretty big, and they run good routes. They don’t have blazing speed, but they’re all pretty fast. They’re a good group.”

Ross is the team’s leading receiver, with 13 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown. Brian Watters is the only other UCF receiver with more than seven catches so far this season (he has 12 for 145 yards). Nobody has more than one touchdown reception.

DEFENSE

The UCF defense is surrendering nearly 360 yards per game, but gave up 403 to UTEP last week, including 284 through the air.

Joe Burnett is one of the elite cornerbacks and return specialists in the entire nation (photo by UCF athletic department).

The defensive line is anchored by behemoth defensive tackle Torrell Troup (6-3, 320), who has four sacks among his 10 tackles.

“He’s huge, but other than him, their line isn’t that big,” guard Josh LeRibeus said. “Their ends (David Williams and Bruce Miller) aren’t that big (6-2, 234 and 6-2, 249, respectively), but they’re fast. They do a lot of stunts with their front four, but nothing we haven’t seen from other teams.”

LeRibeus said the Golden Knights like to bring their linebackers on blitzes, and the statistics bear that out: outside linebacker Lawrence Young has a team-leading five sacks; middle linebacker Chance Henderson has three.

The strength of the UCF defense is in the secondary, where head coach George O’Leary starts four seniors. Free safety Jason Vernon leads the team with 26 tackles, and is tied for the team lead with two interceptions, and strong safety Sha’Reff Rashad has 18 tackles through four games and is tied for the team lead with five passes broken up.

The best player in the secondary — and on the entire defense, and perhaps the entire team — is cornerback Joe Burnett. The 5-11, 185-pound Burnett has blazing speed, and is among the premier cornerbacks — and return specialists — in the entire country. He has 14 tackles and one interception through four games, numbers that are somewhat skewed by opposing team’s tendencies to go away from him whenever possible.

UCF is still a very talented team, and the Golden Knights' early-season struggles might be encouraging to PonyFans, but certainly don't guarantee a fourth consecutive UCF loss. But the Golden Knights are struggling, and have a couple of key injuries, so it's possible the Mustangs are catching them at exactly the right time.