PonyFans.com is proud to have 15-year-old Nate as a guest columnist. In this installment, Nate offers his view of Saturday's football season opener at North Texas. Feel free to post comments and constructive criticism, ask him questions, and/or give suggestions for upcoming columns! (He can be followed on Twitter at @Pony_NATE_tion.)

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SMU kicks off the second year of the Chad Morris era Saturday in Denton against the North Texas Mean Green. The Mustangs are coming off a season that was about as exciting and fast-paced as a 2-10 season could be. Expect this year to be even more exciting and fast-paced.

In 2014, SMU scored 12 total points in the first four games. Chad Morris made quick work of that embarrassing stat, scoring 21 points in the first 21 minutes of the season-opener last year against Baylor. Morris also improved the Mustangs’ points per game by about 150 percent, from 11.1 to 27.8 points per game. That wasn’t the only stat that fluxed from 2014 to 2015. SMU’s total yards per game went from 269 to 383 yards per game. The rushing yards per game jumped from 100 to 165.

Nate says his Offensive Player of the Year, running back Xavier Jones, should improve on his standout freshman season (photo by Pat Kleineberg).

Where things went wrong for SMU was the other side of the ball. In 2014, the Mustangs gave up 41.3 points per game, along with 499 yards per game. The numbers jumped to 45.7 points per game and 502 yards per game. It can’t be forgotten that last year the Mustangs faced three of the top offenses in the country: Houston, Baylor, and TCU.

The most important — and a way, mind-boggling — stat is the fact that SMU allowed more rushing yards per game (261) than passing yards per game (241). The overly positive SMU fan might say something like, “Wow, our secondary must have been really good last year!” Actually, that stat is quite alarming. This ranked the Mustangs 124th in the country in rushing defense. They surrendered 5.8 yards per rush, and other teams recognized that rather quickly, running the ball 43.8 times per game (I discounted the 16 sacks SMU had last year, since college football counts sacks toward rushing attempts). Hopefully, a more experienced Justin Lawler, Zelt Minor (who has a lot of untapped potential), Deon Green, Mason Gentry and Nick Horton can help solidify the defensive front. Added depth along with a healthy front seven should improve those numbers. SMU has the potential to surprise a lot people and maybe even sneak into a bowl game this season.

Given all this, here are my predictions for which players will make the biggest impact for SMU this year:

Most Valuable Player: Courtland Sutton

Last year, Courtland Sutton was simply incredible in his redshirt freshman season. He was noticed nationally and earned Freshman All-America honors. Sutton was a major threat in every aspect of the offensive side of the ball. Whether it’s blocking, catching long throws or jump balls, he can do it all. Last year he caught 49 passes for 862 yards, for a whopping average of 17.6 yards per catch, along with nine touchdowns. Sutton presents a legitimate red zone threat to the defense every time he’s on the field. There’s really no reason to believe Sutton will take a step back in his sophomore season.

Offensive Player of the Year: Xavier Jones

Yes, the quarterback is usually the offensive player of the year, and it’s understood that Matt Davis is the most important part of the offense, but beside Davis (and Sutton), I like Jones as the MVP of the offense. Jones turned heads in camp leading up to the 2015 season and dominated as a true freshman. In his first year, he had 696 yards for 10 touchdowns, along with an impressive 4.2 yards per carry. Jones quickly took the job from Prescott Line last season and established himself as the No. 1 back. Jones also provides a threat in the passing game out of the backfield, catching 27 balls for 214 yards last year. His speed and quickness will be a massive weapon for the SMU offense.

Defensive Player of the Year: Justin Lawler

Lawler burst on to the scene for SMU last year, leading the team in tackles (64) and sacks (5) as a sophomore. He is easily the biggest threat SMU has in terms of pass rushing and run stopping. Lawler most certainly did his job last year; the issue was the rest of the defensive line not matching his production. He is a high-motor, high-effort defensive end who shouldn’t disappoint in his junior season.

Breakout Player: Kyran Mitchell

The sophomore showed lots of promise in 2015, as he was fourth on the team in tackles (40), with 4.5 tackles for loss, along with an interception before getting hurt. Van Malone loves him at the STAR position, and should be SMU’s guy at that spot. Malone said, “We’re excited about Kyran Mitchell. He is a dynamic blitzer, and does a pretty good job in coverage.” His athleticism and versatility make him perfect for that position. Look for Mitchell to flourish in his sophomore year.

Now, on to the season-opener in Denton, as SMU takes on North Texas to kick off the 2016 season: In Morris’ press conference, the main thing I got out of it, pertaining to the game on Saturday, is the unknown factor.

“There’s so many unknowns,” Morris said. “You watch film from basically every place that every coach has been at. You put two and two together. At the end of the day, it really is a nameless, faceless opponent.”

North Texas hired former North Carolina assistant Seth Littrell, whose first season will be UNT’s first year in this new system. North Texas went 1-11 last season. SMU might know the UNT personnel, but now they are all in a different offense, a different scheme.

Defensive end Justin Lawler led the Mustangs in tackles and sacks last year, but in order to improve, the Mustangs need more defensive balance (photo by Pat Kleineberg).

“We have studied different programs and philosophies these guys have been a part of,” SMU defensive coordinator Van Malone said. “You can’t identify how exactly they will attack. It’s very concerning when you go into a game and you don’t know. Really quickly, as we get into the game, we’ll know.”

The Mean Green will bring a new quarterback into the game: Alec Morris, a graduate transfer from Alabama. Yes, he brings the flashy fact that he was on Alabama, but he threw one pass in three years with the Tide, so there can’t be much known about Morris. UNT has a solid running back as well, in Jeffrey Wilson, who rushed for 855 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. UNT has several unknowns out at wide receiver, returning just one of its top five receivers from 2015. It’s a safe guess that North Texas will play an up-tempo, spread, “Air Raid” style of offense, given Seth Littrell’s offense at North Carolina, and former Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell taking the offensive coordinator duties.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Mean Green returns its top two tacklers from last season: safeties Kishawn McClain (110 tackles) and James Gray (104 tackles). Outside of that, not many more of UNT’s top tacklers are returning. It also should be noted that McClain and Grayare its two deepest defenders, meaning all the tackles are far downfield. The North Texas defense was atrocious last year, allowing school records 6,031 total yards and 2,756 rushing yards. The Mean Green returns eight starters from this defense.

The key to SMU starting its season off with a win is winning the trenches, meaning how Justin Lawler and Co. fare against UNT’s experienced offensive line — a unit that has a combined 71 career starts and will be helped by Texas Tech transfer Trey Keenan, who will start at right tackle — will be critical. The Mustangs have to win up front in order to be successful against North Texas.

Given it is the season opener, both teams will be amped up. So the first quarter is vital. If North Texas gets up early, the crowd will get into it, and this will turn into a serious road game, with the Mean Green’s hatred for SMU playing a factor. UNT will be playing with house money Saturday, with nothing to lose. It has a new coach and a new offense, and they have invigorated the fan base, so from the Mean Green’s perspective, there is no better opponent to kick off the new era than against the hated Mustangs. So controlling the crowd will be important.

That’s just the emotional part of the game. I think top to bottom, SMU is more talented, experienced and downright better than North Texas. I expect SMU to impress Saturday and win comfortably.

Nate’s Take: SMU 45, North Texas 24