Pony NATE-tion: Can USF match up with 4-0 SMU?

[PonyPride]

Pony NATE-tion: Can USF match up with 4-0 Mustangs?
Mustangs host Bulls in AAC opener at 3 Saturday
Posted on 09/30/2021 by PonyFans.com

PonyFans.com is proud to have journalism student Nate back as a guest columnist for the 2021 season. This week, Nate looks back at the Mustangs' convincing victory at TCU and previews SMU's game Saturday Homecoming game against USF.
Feel free to post comments and constructive criticism, ask him questions, and/or give suggestions for upcoming columns! (He can be followed on Twitter at @Pony_NATE_tion.)

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The SMU Mustangs made a massive statement when they defeated TCU Saturday in Fort Worth for the second time in a row. The Ponies ran all over TCU to the tune of the second-most yards Gary Patterson has ever given up in a game.
“You kicked our [deleted],” Patterson told head coach Sonny Dykes after the game.

Indeed they did.

Aside from any postgame antics that SMU pulled (like some comedic jabs at TCU by SMU’s Twitter account), the Mustangs had a lot to celebrate as it appears a statement has been made not just to TCU, but to the rest of the state, and of course the Big 12. Now SMU just has to keep winning and build on that success, and it starts with taking care of the current conference.

SMU opens up American Athletic Conference play with a Homecoming matchup against South Florida. The Mustangs are heavily favored, and for good reason. USF’s lone win wass against Florida A&M (38-17), while suffering two blowout losses to North Carolina State (45-0) and Florida (42-20) and a more competitive (35-27) loss to BYU. The Bulls have had a very difficult schedule so far, and it doesn’t get any easier as they head into what should be an exciting environment Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. It’s easy to anticipate a good crowd, given all the momentum after the win at TCU and the fact that the game is Homecoming.

As always, Dykes was complimentary of SMU’s opponent.

“I’ve seen a ton of improvement,” Dykes said. “I think that’s the thing you look from Game 1 to last week against BYU, they look like a different team.”

USF’s offense has struggled mightily so far, scoring just a bit over 21 points per game. There has been little success running the football, as the Bulls are averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. Averaging just 331 yards per game, offense has been tough to come by for the Bulls under second-year head coach Jeff Scott.

Leading the offense for USF is redshirt freshman quarterback Timmy McClain, who has averaged just 139 passing yards per game and has only thrown one touchdown. I’ve never been a big believer in passing touchdowns as a massively telling statistic for quarterbacks, but only one passing touchdown for all USF quarterbacks through four games is jarring. McClain also runs a fair amount, having racked up 41 carries already for 133 yards (3.2 yards per carry). One area in which the Bulls struggled mightily is third down conversions: they have converted just 31 percent of the time.
Weapons-wise, USF looks like it starts and stops with running back Jaren Mangham and Xavier Weaver. Mangham has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry but has found the end zone seven times. Weaver leads the Bulls in every receiving category: 14 catches (second-highest has eight), 294 yards (second-highest has 73), and a touchdown (no one else has caught a touchdown pass). It’s easy to figure out who to stop in this USF offense, and SMU defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt will have a game plan for it after bottling up TCU in the second half Saturday.

USF’s defense has simply been getting trampled. Opponents are averaging 503 yards per game with 231 of those yards coming on the ground. USF is giving up an absurd 6.7 yards per rush. It hasn’t been just the running game either: opposing quarterbacks are averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt against the USF defense.

The Bulls’ defense is led by linebacker Andrew Mims, the team’s leading tackler with 26 stops through four games. USF’s leading solo tackler is defensive back Daquan Evans, who also has a pass defended to his resume so far. Blake Green leads the Bulls with 1.5 sacks, which is impressive production from a defensive tackle. SMU’s interior offensive line may have its hands full Saturday, and Dykes commented on their defensive front.

“Defensively, I’m really impressed with their linebackers,” he said. “(I) think they can really run. Their defensive front’s active.”

This game seems fairly straightforward for the Mustangs: win convincingly, and they’re in the Associated Press top 25 for the first time this season. It would be the first time SMU has appeared in the top 25 during three consecutive seasons since the pre-Death Penalty era.

This game plan feels like it will be another TCU-like game plan. It starts with the offensive line and running the football. What the SMU offensive front did to TCU — SMU ran for 350 yards — is demoralizing. Teams have been gashing USF on the ground and you have to imagine Dykes and offensive coordinator Garrett Riley plan to do the same. Expect another big Ulysses Bentley game.

USF’s offense simply can not keep up with SMU. The Mustangs have one of the best offenses in the country. The transition into the Tanner Mordecai era has been seamless, and I expect that to continue Saturday. A combination of an offense that can’t score with a severely overmatched defense is recipe for a blowout.

Nate’s take: SMU 45, USF 21

[Water Pony]

Thanks, Nate, for the thoughtful review. forecast, and prediction.

I like Sonny's recognition that USF, although slow out of the gate, is improving as is their confidence/belief that they can hang with better teams.

Let's start fast and wear them down. Pony Up!

[SmooBoy]

Good stuff, Nate. Great writing and analysis.

I agree with the 45-21 prediction.

Thank you for your continued contributions!