W2W4 - Nevada

[JasonB]

Welcome to Week 0! It is great to get the season started and to play on the opening week. Obviously, a lot of unknowns headed into the season as we take a step up in competition.

As I stated in my season preview, we have a massive advantage in team talent on Nevada. 247 has us at 788; Nevada is at 525. On average, I expect a 5 point difference every 50 points. So that would have us at a 25 point win, minus 3 for home field, so a 22 point victory. I'll give my score prediction later, but I don't expect the game to be close, therefore, this game should be more about individual player evaluation. Let's take it group-by-group.

QB - The big thing to watch here is the type of offence we run with Stone starting the game. He is at his best when the game opens up with pure pass/run plays. Are we going to run what Rhett wants and call a bunch of RPO? Or do you play to Stone's strengths? If he runs RPO, does he make the right decisions and can he shift reads in the passing game quick enough. Last year, Stone on an RPO would almost always stick with the deep option and huck it down the field, which resulted in a lower completion percentage. In both the RPO and the standard passing game, will Stone take the checkdown and get his pass completion percentage up to 65% or higher? Getting up above 65% is what both Rhett and the NFL scouts want to see.

When Jennings gets into the game, we are looking for an improved completion percentage, a better deep ball, and a reduction of turnovers.

RB - Lost of rumors of Brashard Smith starting. I want to see how they use him. With his frame, I would probably want to limit him to 15 touches total per game (including KR) in order to keep him fresh and fast. I am interested to see if the coaches go above that mark.

LJ has looked a step quicker and more decisive in camp. I want to see if that shows up. Finally, Rooster hasn't had fumble issues in camp, and so a no fumble, no turnover game would be really nice to see.

WR - Hudson, Mello, and Smith have all looked like they too big steps forward this fall. I want to see quick wins on routes. Early separation to give the QBs easy decisions to make. We all know that we lost our two starting corners - did the WR really take a step, or is our secondary not great? I think it is the former, but that will come out in this game. Side note, I think Bailey is going to have a pretty big year as well.

TE - What I want to see here is consistent production. RJ had some great games last year, and then others where he didn't make as much of an impact. Hibner looks great. This group should have 5-7 catches every game for 80 yards or so.

OL - 1) PJ is a stud. I want to see him dominate. 2) Our interior blocking should take a major step forward. I expect to see pushes down the field and our running game getting more chunk plays than last season. 3) Anderson at RT is an experiment that has promise. The performance at that position is the difference between sealing an edge in the running game and keeping the QB clean, or the offense conceding negative plays 4) I expect to see the impact of Hibner and RJ's increased size have a significant impact in the running game off the edge.

Offensively, while I can see us getting off to a slow start, at the end of the game I expect that this should be a 300/200 game. Over 300 yards passing, over 200 yards running. Nevada doesn't have a bad defense, I expect their DE and LB to make some plays. But with our improved OL and experience, I expect us to be ready to compete in the ACC. I think we have a significant advantage straight up the middle that will gash them for 5 yards a pop. In previous years, our tackles had to push inside to help up front, and this allowed the DE to come around the outside and make plays on the RB on runs up the middle. Our OT will be able to stay home because the C/G can do the work on the tackles and get the push they need. I think this OL will be much more effective pulling the guard on running plays to give us an extra blocker at the point of attack, especially driving to our right with PJ locking down the backside, Parr/Byrd pulling to give an extra blocker behind Osborne and Clark (and even the H-Back as well), to lead to really explosive plays. Finally, I want to see the counter run from B Smith or Rooster on a 20+ yard gain. Once you run OG right with the pull, now the LBs chase to that side, so your counter is wide open on the left gap when PJ holds it down. 200 yards rushing with multiple 20+ yard runs is the goal.

In the passing game, I want 100 yards from TE + RB to show a higher willingness to checkdown, and then 200 from the WR group with one of the outside receivers over 100.

Part of the reason I am driving high numbers for the offensive side of the ball, despite Nevada's decent defense, is that I anticipate a dominant performance from the defense, and in particular the DL. I expect the defensive line to absolutely dominate the front, snuff out the running game, and give the QB no time to pass. I don't really anticipate that this game will give us the ability to judge the corners. If we are right about how good the DL is, the QB isn't going to have time to test anyone. Hunte and Jefferson are the guys in particular that I expect to cause all kinds of chaos inside that disrupts both the running game and the passing game. We know what Roberts is, but I want to see Harvey and Turbo generating consistent pressure on the other side. Their QB can run, but so can our LBs. I expect him to make some plays with his feet and improvise in the passing game. But overall, our goal should be 10 points or less and under 200 yards of total offense. The final players that I want to watch on defense in this game are the two young LBs Brandon Booker and Miyazano. I expect them to get some time, and against a mobile QB and run-first offense it will test them out a bit. I'm looking forward to seeing if they are ready to contribute this season.

Last year, in the opener against Nevada, we went up 31-0 early and then took the pedal off the gas in the second half as we rotated a lot of players in. This year, for example, our DL is a legit 3 deep at every position, and they ALL want to show that they can play. We have depth issues at OT, but that is about it. Our backup QB wants to push for time, our RBs all want to show what they have, and we have defensive players all over the place that want to earn as much playing time as possible.

So, sure, there is a scenario where we have fluke turnovers, or Anderson really struggles at RT and it results in negative plays, or we have penalties (which were a problem in the scrimmage I watched). And because of those things we don't cover and we win a 31-14 game.

But I think it much more realistic that we have competition for spots all across the board, and that competition doesn't allow the intensity to drop over the course of the game.

SUM 45 - Nevada 10

[SMU Pony Mom]

Thanks for the info!! Very excited tonight. Feel like it’s Christmas Eve and tomorrow is Christmas with the start of the college football season. Let’s enjoy the ride!! Go Mustangs!!!

[Charleston Pony]

Really worked out well that we had to scramble to find a 12th game and now get to help open the college football season...especially with the team getting a break from the Texas weather tomorrow and then getting a bye week after every 3 games we play this year!

[max the wonder dog]

Thanks for the info!! Very excited tonight. Feel like it’s Christmas Eve and tomorrow is Christmas with the start of the college football season. Let’s enjoy the ride!! Go Mustangs!!!

Today's the most football-excited I've been since the 1983 Cotton Bowl

[sail420s]

Stone concerns me. I was excited for him to take over the reigns last year, but was disappointed. It seemed like the game was too fast for him. His deep throws were almost always under thrown, it more likely, he waited so long to throw that the receivers out ran his arm.

[Paladin]

Looks like the team read this post as their pre-game preparation

[PNW_Stang]

Excited to see JasonBs breakdown of the game