W2W4 - Virginia

[JasonB]

Only two more games left in the regular season, and then we will have the ACC Championship game and potentially the CFP on the schedule. It is amazing how far this program has advanced over the last 5 years.

I watched three Virginia games against BC, ND and Pitt. My takeaway is that Virginia is very different from Boston College; on paper, I kind of expected them to be similar - a strong defense and a struggling offense. BC on tape you watch and you come away thinking they are a very good team, with good players, and they just find ways (mostly because of the QB position) to lose games. We saw how physical and good they are on both sides of the line in person last week. Virginia isn't at that same level. They are solid all the way around, but they just don't have those difference making players on offense or defense. Everything is just kind of okay. But they are very well coached and are better as a whole than they are individually. Against Pitt, they were clearly the worse team but found ways to compete and Pitt had penalties that hurt them early, and then they injured the Pitt QB and won the game. Against BC, BC went ahead 14-0 early, and then TC did TC things and Virginia was able to come back and win. ND absolutely dominated Virginia and really took the life out of them. *side note* - I've watched several ND games this year as part of these previews, and as much as I hate to say it, they are playing really well right now. The QB is way better than he was at the start of the season, the young OL has really grown up, and the D is fantastic. They could use more playmakers on offense, but they deserve to be in the CFP regardless of SOS.

One thing that does stand out when you watch these ACC teams is that they are very solid physically. In the Big12, you see a lot of teams with a lower quality OL and DL, with maybe a couple of edge rushers. With the ACC, both sides of the line are big and can play physically. It is a completely different game. The Big 12 has more playmakers at QB and WR. But the ACC has better line play, more physical running games, and better defense overall. It is a completely different game that aligns more with the Big 10 and SEC, whereas the Big12 is much more like the PAC 12 was.

SMU RUNNING AGAINST VIRGINIA DEFENSE

The Virginia run defense is just kind of OK. PFF rates their individuals on run defense pretty low, and the analytics give them a very middle of the pack rating on run defense. What you are going to notice about the Virginia defense is that they have good size at DL. The ends are large and the Tackles are big. They aren't going to get a push to generate a ton of negative plays, but they compete at the line and make it difficult. What they like to do in their 4-2-5 is have one of their LBs, usually number 5, line up as a 5th lineman on running downs to help get a solid front and force an RPO to a pass call. The other thing they like to do to help run defense is that they will sub out the normal nickel corner, number 4, and plug in a 3rd safety. The challenge they have is that one safety, number 3, who is their highest rated S on PFF, is out. And I don't think they have enough depth to pull others off the bench. If the 3 safety lineup isn't workable, that will impact their run defense.

The reason they have those adjustments is that when they don't play with the 5th down linemen or 3 safeties or blitz another LB, they give up yards on the ground. The DL is fine and it has good size, but they can't do it alone. They have to commit numbers to stop the running game. This is where SMU has been really successful in taking advantage of teams - we will run an RPO, flip to a pass when too many players are in the box, and now we are throwing until they back off, and then it is back to running again.

Another thing to mention here is that one of their LBs, 7 is out of the game. His replacement is number 11, who really impressed me in the ND game. 5 and 8 are their starting LBs, so it is just losing a backup. But if they have to go outside of 5, 8, and 11 the depth drops quick, so something to watch. The LB group is good. They aren't quite on the Pitt/Duke/Louisville level, but they are a good group that will impact the game.

I do expect SMU to have success running the ball, but we are going to have to throw it to get them off the line. I think that the athleticism of Smith, Junior, and Jennings is going to give them some problems.

SMU PASSING AGAINST VIRGINIA DEFENSE

Virginia's metrics and PFF ratings are much better against the pass. One corner, number 29, is excellent. The other two, 4 (slot corner) and 9 are both pretty good as well. The safety group is outstanding - the best part of the defense, kind of like SMU. 3, 0, and 20 are all really good. 3 is the top player in the group on PFF, but 20 is really the stud back there. 3 missing the game is a big deal, it is like NWO or McGill missing the game for SMU. You like 0, who was normally the 3rd one, but after that it gets pretty thin; 30 had a Massey style bad read on an ND run and gave up a 75 yard TD.

So, why is their pass defense and pass metrics not better than what they are (which is better than average)? They have no pass rush. The DTs have size, but don't get push up the middle. The DEs have size, both 82 and 15, but they are both physical DEs that are a better in run defense than creating pass rush. 82 is their highest rated DE and has the pressure stats, but he didn't really have a huge impact on any of the 3 games I watched. 15 absolutely shows up on tape, but he doesn't get to the QB either.

This all sets up pretty well for SMU. They don't have the crazy athletic DEs that tend to give PJ and Byrd (and if he is out Chamblee) issues, like predicted BC would give them. Their DL is a really good match for our OL. As long as we are patient we will be ablet o move the ball. Pass protection will allow us to send WR deep which will open up the underneath passing game for Daniels, Hibner, and Brashard. Because they will have to run blitz to stop the running game, I suspect Hibner and Brashard especially will be pretty effective targets in the passing game. Jennings is going to be effective scrambling as well when things open up. The slot corner 4 can get beat down the field, so look for Daniels on some longer routes like we saw against Duke.

VIRGINIA RUNNING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE

The Virginia running offense is just kind of okay. They have a solid group of running backs. 5 is the starter and is a solid combo back, physical. 0 is the backup and is physical, but is more explosive and actually has better stats. The C is solid, but they struggle run blocking at guard. The LG 77 is better than the RG. At tackle the run blocking gets better. I like 52 overall, I think he is a solid player. You are going to see them run up the middle to establish physicality, but they don't get a lot of yards there. They are most effective running off tackle, and will run better to the left side than they do to the right.

They run a lot of RPO and will add some zone read. Both QBs might play, but I expect 10 to start for them as he has the entire season (he got yanked at halftime and the backup (a senior who was injured coming into the year) did a solid job. The backup has mobility, but is more of a pocket guy. 10, the young starter, is not going to be homerun threat, but he is quick and really elusive. In the running game, they will call some straight runs for him off the zone read, and he is effective with it. He gets a ton of yards in the scramble drill.

The running game shows up at being average in all of the metrics and stats. But the reality is that they get a ton of productive running out of the scramble game. Outside of that, they have solid but not really explosive running backs and an average at best OL. The running game on its own isn't really producing enough.

Especially with Roberts back on the line, I expect SMU's run defense to handle the Virginia running game pretty well.

VIRGINIA PASSING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE

Collandrea is interesting to watch. He is a young player, and still needs development time. He has some good accuracy, especially over the middle when his technique is good. But when he throws the deep ball, he has to put everything behind it, and it makes it very inaccurate. And his throws between 10-20 yards are not great either. So the mid-range passing game is not there. the reason he has to play is the OL. They do a pretty bad job in pass blocking, both at guard and tackle. They give up a ton of pressures and a ton of sacks. They rely on 10 to move around and find a way to escape pressure; when on the run he usually ends up scrambling and can pick up good yards with his quickness. He doesn't throw the ball well at all under pressure. He isn't afraid to take a hit, and you have to admire his guts.

At WR, they again are solid but they have one guy 8 who really stands out. Nice radius, decent speed, but very physical. A really good possession receiver. The TE is good as well, number 16. He is very active and involved in the passing game. Something to watch, because the BC TEs really gave us fits last week. He could have a big game.

They are at their best on offense when Collandrea is running around and just finding players and just creating havoc. The LB is too worried about him and so the TE opens up across the middle about 8 yards downfield. You will see that a lot. They end up not having a bad offense, it just isn't really sustainable for a full game because it requires so much adhoc stuff to happen. And they don't have personnel to create explosive plays.

Coming off of the BC game, I expect our defensive line to come out pretty ticked off. They are really going to control the line, especially on forced passing downs. Collandrea will hurt us on the scramble a few times and move them with some first downs, but the DL is going to create a lot of problems. At both ends and up the middle with JHH and 92. Collandrea also doesn't really have the game yet to throw the ball to the sidelines a lot, so there are going to be a lot of interceptable passes over the middle for the safeties.

One matchup I am interested in - Crossley isn't the fastest corner in the world, but he is long, athletic, and physical. I think 8 is actually a really good matchup for him, and I want to see how well he does. I think he could play a big part in the game.

One thing to be aware of - in all three games I watched, they ran a WR pass. It is coming at least once on Saturday, it is one of the only ways they can create explosive plays.

PREDICTION

Both of these teams are coming off of very physical games. Virginia got the crap beaten out of them at ND, and have some players either missing the game or injured and playing. SMU was in a very physical game against BC, but luckily aren't missing anyone outside of potentially Byrd and we are probably getting Roberts back, which is a very big deal.

I think Virginia is very motivated, because they need to win one more game to make a bowl, and next week is VT, which they always struggled with. But so is SMU - a win clinches a spot in the ACC Championship game. And I think SMU is pretty frustrated with how that BC game went.

I have a slight concern about Chamblee over Byrd in the running game, because Byrd was becoming quite good on that edge. But even without him, I think SMU is going to really control both sides of the line. Virginia is going to have to gamble defensively, and SMU will be able to take advantage of it in the passing game. And I think the DL is going to go out and make a statement.

Penalties and turnovers are always factors that can turn a game in a different direction. But I think SMU is going to roll and clinch their postseason birth.

SMU 41 Virginia 17

[Water Pony]

Well-reasoned with valuable insight, JasonB

Thank you as always for taking the time to assess and report on our game prospects. I like the prediction too.

[highlander]

Interesting insight about the Big 12. I agree: I always suspected they were just a better version of the The American -- good skill players, but average and small-ish in the trenches. If this is correct, this does not bode well for their representative in the CFP.

[JasonB]

Interesting insight about the Big 12. I agree: I always suspected they were just a better version of the The American -- good skill players, but average and small-ish in the trenches. If this is correct, this does not bode well for their representative in the CFP.

The TCU team that Dykes had in 2022 was an exception to the rule. But it was because he was building off of what Patterson had. We dominated them on both sides of the LOS this season, but then you see how once they got into Big 12 play, they are doing okay. It is a very different game