Recruiting and Winning in the C-USA West

[Cadillac]

I’m a numbers dork. That’s something that gets me into trouble. That’s one of the things that helped suck me into my 7-5 prediction for the season. Nothing can quite numb you into a false sense of confidence quite like bad numbers.

Anyhow, I was poking around Rivals (yes yes, I know), and I came up with some interesting data. I took the Average Rivals Ranking of our recruiting classes over the course of the 2003-2007 recruiting classes (Bennett’s classes) I ranked each of the C-USA teams based on their average ranking over that period.

I then compared that with the winning % of C-USA teams during the 2002-2006 seasons. I noticed a few things:

SMU plays worse than they recruit, when compared to the rest of the C-USA West. UTEP Plays better than the recruit (Do they get a lot of transfers?).

Otherwise, Each team ranked the same in Winning % as they did in recruiting.

Maybe Rivals knows what they are talking about after all?

In other news, C-USA East generally beats the crap out of C-USA West in recruiting. And how sad is it that the Best team in the West has a whopping .500 winning percentage? Wow we suck.

Anyhow, here are the numbers:

Average Rivals rank

Houston :80
Tulsa 80.6
SMU 84.8
Tulane 89.2
Rice 93.2
Texas-El Paso :97.6

Winning % over 5 years
Houston .500
Tulsa .476
UTEP .410
Tulane .406
Rice .345
SMU .293

[Stallion]

makes sense that UTEP would play better than their recruiting because Rivals doesn't incorporate Division 1A Transfers into their recruiting scores and UTEP's best players are high quality Division 1A Transfers. Plus its not really the best snapshot to assign equal weight to Senior and Freshman classes. For example, pre-Katrina Tulane had a very strong recruiting class ranked pretty high at something like 62. Its difficult to analyze mathmatically but you would think a Senior/Junior Class would play a more prominent role than Freshman and Sophmores. There are several other ways a player can be added to a program and not be reflected in the recruiting rankings. Let's talk about Brendan Marion who was a last minute signee at Tulsa and proceeded to average about 35 yards a catch with a hefty 30 catches. Not reflected in Tulsa's recruiting rankings but still an integral part of one of the Top Offenses in the Nation. Same could be said for any number of late qualifiers who sign in the Summer-and never appear in the rankings. I've tried to point out for years that there are shortcuts which are never reflected in these rankings.

[Cadillac]

It's true that the samples certainly don't overlay well. It would really be fun to take the numbers and see the correlation between a recruiting class and the performance of the team 4-5 years out. The biggest problem I had with that was that coaches change so often. I mean, these numbers were really only taken because they encompass Bennett's tenure.

You're absolutely right that there are any number of ways to get players (and good ones at that) on the team that aren't accounted for on the Rivals rankings. Yet even with that in mind, and even considering changes in coaches, and a Hurricane trying to wipe Tulane off the map, there is a significant correlation between how Rivals rates recruiting classes, and how the teams perform. While these things (as most things in the real world) are over-determined, it does look like D1A transfers can go far in explaining the anomalous rankings of UTEP and SMU.

-CoS

[dcfan]

This is a nice constructive post. Couple of reactions:

-I was actually surprised to see that our historical recruiting during this period shakes out as favorably as it does, vis-a-vis other conference foes. I have not been taken by the approach of apparently only going after "diamonds in the rough" (e.g., 1 or 2 star recruit that we believe is very promising). Certainly those players are good recruits if they pan out, but it concerned me that SMU was throwing up the white flag on 3, 4, and 5 star recruits.

-Comments about UTEP aside, what it shows about SMU is that IF Rivals' rankings hold water (and that the recruits as ranked actually pan out as projected), SMU really is doing significantly less with its talent. This could be a function of: a) coaching schemes that don't optimally fit the available players, b) insufficient coaching that results in players not performing on the field (e.g., running the correct route, limiting turnovers and penalties, sound blocking and tackling), and/or c) player development over the period at the school, including physical training and football IQ (function of 'b').

The above are just possibilities. I don't pretend to have an knowledgeable window into how players at SMU are developed and coached on a day-to-day basis. I certainly think there is vast room for improvement on fundamentals after witnessing a dramatic amount of missed tackling over the years. Strength and condition regimes can also be a huge point of differentiation between football programs. I've heard good things about our regime over the years, and of course a lot of that is up to the players and the team leaders that set the tone for work ethic and personal development.

A glass-half-full view of the program is there may be a lot of levers that can be pulled that lead to improvement.

[Stallion]

I do think you can over analyze it-what's the difference between a 1-11 or 5-7 team-when you lose 4 gams at the gun. Not much.

[OC Mustang]

I do think you can over analyze it-what's the difference between a 1-11 or 5-7 team-when you lose 4 gams at the gun. Not much.

Bottom line: SMU isn't as good as we'd like them to be, but comparatively, they aren't as bad as their record indicates.

Right, wrong, or indifferent, that looks like coaching to me.
That's about as deep an analysis as I need.

[Alaric]

Watching Bennett's teams, I get the feeling that our skill position players are better athletically than our lines, they're better than they have been in the past and that our lines are worse athletically than what they've been in the past. Anyone else get that feeling? Anyone have empirical evidence supporting or refuting that? It felt like with our first few teams after the death penalty our wide receivers were slower than middle linebackers from other teams.

[PhirePhilBennett]

FUNDAMENTAL COACHING DECISIONS...

IT'S THREE THINGS, LIKE:

1. GOING FOR TWO WHEN YOU ARE UP BY 19 IN THE THIRD,

2. BLOCKED PUNTS RUN BACK AGAINST YOU FOR TD'S (AND NO SPECIAL TEAMS COORDINATOR) THAT PUT YOU IN THE HOLE (AND 'TAKE US OUT OF OUR GAME PLAN')

- THERE ARE AT LEAST 4 'WINS' HERE, AND PERHAPS 2-3 OTHER GAMES THAT HAD WE NOT GONE DOWN BY 2 TDS SO EARLY, WE MAY HAVE STAYED IN THE GAME AND WHO KNOWS WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED.

3. GOING FOR A TD IN THE FIRST HALF OF AN OVERTIME PERIOD INSTEAD OF ACCEPTING A FG

- INTERESTINGLY, SONNY LUBICK WAS UP BY 2 TDS OVER THAT FABLED DAVID CARR FRESNO STATE TEAM WHO FURIOUSLY TIED IT JUST BEFORE TIME EXPIRED...ONLY TO 'GO FOR IT' IN A FIRST HALF OF OT INSTEAD OF KICK THE FG. HE DIDN'T MAKE IT, AND ALL FSU HAD TO DO WAS GO 5 YARDS AND KICK THE FG TO WIN IT. HOW STUPID.

- HEY, I UNDERSTAND IN THE 2ND HALF OF OT, TO END THE GAME, BUT NEVER THE FIRST HALF. BOISE STATE SHOWED THAT AGAINST OU...I THINK MORE TO CATCH OU OFF BALANCE, BUT ALSO THE DETERMINATION THAT 'WE END IT RIGHT HERE' ATTITUDE. BUT THAT LAST SMU OT WOULDN'T HAVE ENDED ANYTHING 'RIGHT NOW'...B/C MEMPHIS STILL HAD THEIR OPPORTUNITY TO SCORE. DUMB AS ROCKS.

4. CLOCK MANAGEMENT

[SoCal_Pony]

Good work Cadillac.

BTW, If you take out PB's 1st recruiting class, his 2003 one which per Rivals was his BEST class, SMU's 4 year average drops to 90, making it second worst in C-USA West when you factor in UTEP's transfers.

That 2003 class included 10 3-Stars that unfortunately didn't pan out.

Justin Boren, Avery Cleveland, Zach Hall, Desmond Jones, Richuel Massey, Ervin McGee, Ricky Joe Meeks, Cory Muse, Chris Phillips and Joe Sturdivant.

THAT class gave my plenty of optimism about PB. His inability to cultivate it was also one of his biggest un-doings that we hardly mention on this board.

[Cadillac]

The implosion of the '03 class has to be one of the biggest hits this program's recruiting has taken, and certainly plays a role in why they were ranked higher in recruiting than on field performance. Those guys should have been the core of this team this year, yet only One of them was starting this year.

I posted the whole sad story back in June:

http://www.ponyfans.com/phpBB2/viewtopi ... ht=#210558

-CoS