Thinking with my Johnson

[SMUer]

If I were Paul Johnson, I'd look at my options like this:

Duke/GT - both ACC schools, one obviously more of a challenge than the other. At Duke, there's money (and housing?) and if I won 6+ games and took them to a bowl for a couple of years I'd be a hero. Certainly I won't ever be a national champion at Duke but maybe a hot 7-9 win team similar to what I was at Navy is a possibility. At GT, there's less money and if I don't win the ACC and beat Georgia at least every other year, I'll be viewed as a failure. Still, there is a realistic BCS bowl-bid opportunity at GT, but it'll take a lot longer at GT than at Duke before I can build up a program that meets expectations.

Unless, I really want to stay at GT long-term (7+ years) the better launch pad for my career is Duke where I can enjoy success more quickly and then head on to an even bigger program in Pac10/SEC/Big12/Big10(11) plus they'll pay me more and subsidize the housing for me and my staff.
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SMU - a mid-major school and a challenge, but like Duke if I won 6+ games and took their team to a bowl for a couple of years, I'd be a hero. SMU certainly would cause a lot of media commotion if it started winning and I'd be really nice to be associated with that and they are offering me a lot of money. While SMU won't likely be a bcs (minimum top 12 ranking) or even a national champion contender during my tenure, there is a real possibility to win CUSA titles at SMU within a relatively short period of time (unlike Duke) and so if I'm going to leap to a bigger program (see above), this would be a good intermediary job until those opportunities come.

Duke and SMU are better short term jobs while GT is a better long-term. Duke is obviously in a better conference but any short term success will probably mirror the success I already enjoy at Navy - no titles but very a respectable record. SMU has a real shot at a CUSA title with a few years work and probably promises bigger accolades than I would receive winning at Duke.

SMU offers the greatest relative upside and the quickest turn-around, but there's always that risk (do I trust my abilities? orsini? the tools they have?). Duke offers the best financial situation and probably is the least risky move (although it feels the most lateral from the great position I have at Navy). GT has the biggest potential to be a powerhouse but expectations are high and it'll take a long-time to get it there. If I love GT and can see myself there for awhile, that's where I should go. If deep down, I want something bigger, I need to go with my gut on SMU or Duke.

[planoponyfan]

Good analysis with one missing factor that bolsters your argument. SMU is in the 5th largest media market in the country. GT is in about the 15th largest - if that. Duke - much smaller. A good turnaround at SMU will get him more recognition faster than if he were at Duke or GT. As much as I'd love to find a coach to stay for 10 years and win lots of games, I recognize this guy is probably only going to be here 5 years or so if successful. If the success is faster, he'll leave faster for a much bigger gig. The same can't be said of either Duke or GT.

[SMUer]

That's a very good point about the media markets. I hadn't thought of that. Yeah, I think Paul is our Mr. Fix-It not our version of Daryll Royal...but that's totally okay with me.

[DallasDiehard]

That's true, but remember that there are a lot more newspaper buyers and radio listeners who graduated from Texas and A&M and Oklahoma than there are who graduated from SMU. This is a big media market, but that doesn't mean it's a big SMU media market.

[SMUer]

That's true, but remember that there are a lot more newspaper buyers and radio listeners who graduated from Texas and A&M and Oklahoma than there are who graduated from SMU. This is a big media market, but that doesn't mean it's a big SMU media market.

I'd be totally obnoxious in Dallas if UNT ever enjoyed TCU-like success. It seems like 1/5 of our media analysts call UNT their nourishing mother (alma mater)

[StangEsq]

That's true, but remember that there are a lot more newspaper buyers and radio listeners who graduated from Texas and A&M and Oklahoma than there are who graduated from SMU. This is a big media market, but that doesn't mean it's a big SMU media market.

SMU was bigger than Texas here in the early 80s. Winning is what draws attention in Dallas.

[DallasDiehard]

SMU was the trendy, sexy team then. But there were still more UT alums buying papers. They just weren't as obnoxiously vocal as they are now.