ESPN picks SMU to win C-USA

[ponyboy]

Honest question. How will our third season under JJ differ from Hawaii's second season under him? Both breakthrough years followed by a year of regathering. I think we take one step back this year and two steps forward in 2011. Love to be wrong.

[MidlandMustang]

I almost hate to say this but I think 7 - 5. It all depends on Padron. Could get to 8 wins.

[Alaric]

Honest question. How will our third season under JJ differ from Hawaii's second season under him? Both breakthrough years followed by a year of regathering. I think we take one step back this year and two steps forward in 2011. Love to be wrong.

Garret would be a great person to answer this but I think he'd say JJ's first year here would be comparable to his second year in Hawaii.

In Hawaii, JJ walked into a program with a good senior class but little behind it and was able to have a great first year. The team had several OL (and possibly other positions) who contributed in the NFL for awhile. Unfortunately, he lost a lot of talent off that first year and didn't have comparable talent to replace that class and struggled.

Here, he walked into the talent vaccuum immediately and the result was a 1 win season. Last year we saw a nice improvement (against a relatively easy schedule). He's improving talent at every position and the team continues to learn his schemes. Unfortunately, we're still young and thin. Team will be better even if we don't win more games due to a tougher schedule. Even STallion should like it though he'd say recruiting needs to be farther along.

[Garret]

Honest question. How will our third season under JJ differ from Hawaii's second season under him? Both breakthrough years followed by a year of regathering. I think we take one step back this year and two steps forward in 2011. Love to be wrong.

I actually think that SMU's record could be worse than last year even though the team is better, due to the schedule (at Texas Tech instead of playing a D-IAA team, for example). It sure looks like the team is set for a big season in 2011 (senior OL, experienced offense, upgraded recruiting, etc.). However, there are a *lot* of reasons why SMU's 3rd season under JJ is different that JJ's 2nd season in Hawaii. Here are some highlights:

1. Hawaii's QB (Robinson) graduated after JJ's first season at Hawaii. So, he started a true freshman (Tim Chang) at QB--kind of like what JJ did during his first season at SMU. This year SMU has a returning starter...HUGE difference from starting a true freshman. Look at what Hawaii did during the rest of Tim Chang's years to see a big difference in Hawaii's record.

2. Several key OL members graduated after JJ's first season in Hawaii, including a certain 2nd round draft pick by the Patriots (SMU OL coach Adrian Klemm). SMU is returning 4 starters on the OL and the 5th starter will be experienced also.

3. The *leader* of Hawaii's defense was Jeff Ulbrich and he graduated from Hawaii after JJ's first season. I know that Chase Kennemer was excellent for SMU last season and he is a big loss...but Hawaii did NOT have the depth at LB that SMU now has. Ulbrich played for *10 seasons* with the San Francisco 49ers, starting for many of those seasons, and Hawaii did not have a replacement close to his level. Kennemer is a loss for SMU, but he's not at the 10-year NFL player level.

4. Hawaii lost its defensive coordinator after JJ's first season because Texas Tech offered to more than double McMackin's salary. Changing defensive systems with a thin defense that was not recruited for the new system was hard for the team. SMU returns all of its defensive coaches from last season.

So, on one hand you have a true freshman QB, holes in the OL, big losses on D, and upheaval in the defensive coaching staff. On the other hand you have a returning QB (with a higher QB efficiency as a freshman that Tim Chang had in any of his 6 years at Hawaii), experienced OL, some losses on D but much greater depth to replace the losses, and NO changes in the coaching staff. I could list more differences between 2000 Hawaii and 2010 SMU, but I figure that the highlights were enough.

[Junior]

great synopsis, garret. thanks for posting.

[ponyboy]

Excellent. Thank you.

[Stallion]

One of the reasons I never speculate this early is that no one knows exactly who will be on the roster. I will say one thing though and that is because SMU has finally got its Model straight June Jones is able to identify roster weaknesses and bring in the recruits he needs to immediate fill those gaping holes Last year he filled gaping roster spots with post signing date commitments from McNeil and Moore and even got McConnico in who filled in when Moore was hurt at an essential juncture. He hit a home run with those additions. SMU had guys lead the team in about 10 statistical categories who are from categories of student admissions that SMU rarely got into SMU in the past. This year he is filling the biggest holes by adding last minute recruits at CB, S and DT (tried at RB too) among others who should be able to address those concerns. None of his predessors had that opportunity

[ponyscott]

We are thin at most positions, so it depends on how we hold up on the lines. 2011 is the real deal and this next one is a toss up. We have grade issues as well that haven't been cleared up along with the possibility of injuries at ket positions. Not much chance to rest the players this year with a tougher schedule and don't misunderstand the Navy game as they really challenge the D line's legs after that game.

[ALEX LIFESON]

Honest question. How will our third season under JJ differ from Hawaii's second season under him? Both breakthrough years followed by a year of regathering. I think we take one step back this year and two steps forward in 2011. Love to be wrong.

I actually think that SMU's record could be worse than last year even though the team is better, due to the schedule (at Texas Tech instead of playing a D-IAA team, for example). It sure looks like the team is set for a big season in 2011 (senior OL, experienced offense, upgraded recruiting, etc.). However, there are a *lot* of reasons why SMU's 3rd season under JJ is different that JJ's 2nd season in Hawaii. Here are some highlights:

1. Hawaii's QB (Robinson) graduated after JJ's first season at Hawaii. So, he started a true freshman (Tim Chang) at QB--kind of like what JJ did during his first season at SMU. This year SMU has a returning starter...HUGE difference from starting a true freshman. Look at what Hawaii did during the rest of Tim Chang's years to see a big difference in Hawaii's record.

2. Several key OL members graduated after JJ's first season in Hawaii, including a certain 2nd round draft pick by the Patriots (SMU OL coach Adrian Klemm). SMU is returning 4 starters on the OL and the 5th starter will be experienced also.

3. The *leader* of Hawaii's defense was Jeff Ulbrich and he graduated from Hawaii after JJ's first season. I know that Chase Kennemer was excellent for SMU last season and he is a big loss...but Hawaii did NOT have the depth at LB that SMU now has. Ulbrich played for *10 seasons* with the San Francisco 49ers, starting for many of those seasons, and Hawaii did not have a replacement close to his level. Kennemer is a loss for SMU, but he's not at the 10-year NFL player level.

4. Hawaii lost its defensive coordinator after JJ's first season because Texas Tech offered to more than double McMackin's salary. Changing defensive systems with a thin defense that was not recruited for the new system was hard for the team. SMU returns all of its defensive coaches from last season.

So, on one hand you have a true freshman QB, holes in the OL, big losses on D, and upheaval in the defensive coaching staff. On the other hand you have a returning QB (with a higher QB efficiency as a freshman that Tim Chang had in any of his 6 years at Hawaii), experienced OL, some losses on D but much greater depth to replace the losses, and NO changes in the coaching staff. I could list more differences between 2000 Hawaii and 2010 SMU, but I figure that the highlights were enough.

Thanks for your excellent input. Amazing how you are able to do this, without being a total jerk.

[ponyinNC]

I expect and would be happy with a bowl berth, I'd be surprised by a C-USA championship with the young RB's and the question at the NT and DB positions. If we meet/exceed our goals for next year and challenge for the Liberty Bowl, it will be b/c new members of the team have stepped up...Namely, O'Guin, Fields, Daniels (if grades ok), Crawford/Sorrell