Another take on JJ, this season

[ponyte]

Duke wins:

2009: Army, NC Central, Maryland, NC State, Virginia
2010: Elon, navy, Virginia
2011: BC, Tulane, FIU
2012: FIU, NC Central, Memphis, Wake, Virginia, UNC
2013: NC Central, Memphis, Troy, Navy, Virginia, VT

On one hand, I will say that Duke has beaten some okay teams in there... most of the wins are against teams who struggled mightily that particular season, though, and a high percentage against NC Central. Lost to Richmond a couple of times, FYI.

On the other, the OOC schedule of Duke is incredibly soft. They are doing everything possible to win 4 non-conference games so that they only have to win two in conference in order to go to a bowl.

You absolutely have to start somewhere though. It starts with cupcake non-conference, and try to get in a bowl. Then get to 10 wins. Then worry about quality of opponents non-conference.

Gosh I wish you hadn't shared this. Look at that record!

Duke consistently beats Army, Navy, Memphis and Tulane. We can't beat an egg.

All is doom! Duke is superior. We need their coach. Alas, Babylon!

[ponyboy]

Sorry for the poor quality. But here's a comparison of Duke's versus SMU's final season rankings for the last 20 years. While they do have some sustained improvement of late since Cutcliffe took over, they've been hanging in the 80's to 100's range. In June Jones last four years, we've broken through to the 40's to 60's. Good enough? No. But sustained and significant improvement such that fan expectations are radically different now.

[smumustang1980]

Sorry for the poor quality. But here's a comparison of Duke's versus SMU's final season rankings for the last 20 years. While they do have some sustained improvement of late since Cutcliffe took over, they've been hanging in the 80's to 100's range. In June Jones last four years, we've broken through to the 40's to 60's. Good enough? No. But sustained and significant improvement such that fan expectations are radically different now.

Now, that is a damn interesting sight. I never thought of college football power rankings like stock graphs, but they have some interesting parallels. I wager that if SMU can perform better than 2009 in the power rankings and not break down below this level, then the team is poised for considerable improvement beyond the 40 level and possibly into the 20's in the next few years. And, I am damn serious. If GG can just keep us going on offense and overcome our limitations, then we may surprise all of us.

[Dukie]

Sorry for the poor quality. But here's a comparison of Duke's versus SMU's final season rankings for the last 20 years. While they do have some sustained improvement of late since Cutcliffe took over, they've been hanging in the 80's to 100's range. In June Jones last four years, we've broken through to the 40's to 60's. Good enough? No. But sustained and significant improvement such that fan expectations are radically different now.

ponyboy, I don't know who you think you are refuting with this chart. It isn't me. I've agreed from the start that SMU has had better seasons than Duke in the JJ/Cut eras. I just think JJ inherited more to work with in the first few seasons, and that Cut has done a better job of building for the longer term (e.g., my comment about protecting redshirts, which JJ has often blown for no apparent good reason--remember Baylor last year?).

The attitude around Duke right now is pretty much exactly where SMU was after the 2011 TCU win. I hope the stadium is full for Duke v NC State next week, but I don't expect Cut to pout and give up if it isn't.

Which of us is ultimately right about this will take more seasons to figure out.

[ponyboy]

I'm not refuting now as much as presenting some data I found interesting. While it's instructive to see how Duke and SMU have tracked closely, the thing that stands out to me from this graph is that SMU averaged a 90 ranking for the first sixteen years of the graph but is now in the 55 range for the last four years. That 35 point increase in ranking means something and is pretty strong evidence for real and sustained success. Not Alabama success, but real. That's all June Jones, despite how some of us so want to hate him.

[PlanoStang]

Sorry for the poor quality. But here's a comparison of Duke's versus SMU's final season rankings for the last 20 years. While they do have some sustained improvement of late since Cutcliffe took over, they've been hanging in the 80's to 100's range. In June Jones last four years, we've broken through to the 40's to 60's. Good enough? No. But sustained and significant improvement such that fan expectations are radically different now.

Now, that is a damn interesting sight. I never thought of college football power rankings like stock graphs, but they have some interesting parallels. I wager that if SMU can perform better than 2009 in the power rankings and not break down below this level, then the team is poised for considerable improvement beyond the 40 level and possibly into the 20's in the next few years. And, I am damn serious. If GG can just keep us going on offense and overcome our limitations, then we may surprise all of us.

Yup

This is the sine wave that I have been talking about for years. We fire JJ, and we will probably sink to between 100, and 120. Note, we were on the rise during Rossley's final year. Cavan peeked with Rossley's team, and headed downward. Bennett took it even lower, and then peeked, went 1-11, and got fired. JJ went even lower with his first year at 1 - 11.

We just can't blow the building up to start over every 5 - 6 years, and expect to get anywhere

[ojaipony]

Agreed.

Interesting anecdote:

I take my laptop to my IT guy. We started talking college sports. He is a college sports fan, very typical I presume. I told him I went to SMU bc he saw I had PonyFans opened and asked me what is that and I said I'm a big SMU football fan and how hard it it is to be one and he says . . .

Middle aged IT guy: "Oh, man, I loved Dickerson and Craig James was a stud, too, back in the day. Too bad you guys got the death penalty. I went to SC and they got it bad too now, but not as bad as you guys did. You played in that old conference right? . . . SWC? Yeah, I loved Dickerson. You guys got a big name coach, though, in the last few years right but then you fired him? "

Me: "June Jones, no he's still there but a lot of people want him fired. Yeah, that sucks with SC, who's going to be your next coach?"

IT guy: "Maybe June Jones."

We both laugh.

IT guy: "Did you watch that 30 on 30 about SMU? That was really good."

Me: "Yeah, the director is an SMU alum and really good guy."

IT guy: "Yeah, it was really good. Man, I loved Eric Dickerson. You guys are a national program and are doing alright now, right?" (he mentioned 'national' because I was complaining that I had to stream ESPN3 to watch a lot of games bc we're not on national coverage a lot yet).

Me: "Yeah, much improved but have kind of platuea-ed in the last couple of years."

So my take is that he's pretty typical of the typical college football fan in that he has absolutely no connection to SMU whatsoever (he's an L.A. guy who went to SC) but knows a bit about our history (because he's older and also because he watched 30 on 30).

And my opinion is that we squandered a golden opportunity with that 30 on 30 and coming off a couple of bowl wins and to take that momentum to the next level. HOWEVER, I believe we just have to find a way to create that momentum again somehow. It also goes to show you that we have a powerful brand and could become a popular NATIONAL team again if we can get it back.

[Dukie]

Agreed.

Interesting anecdote:

I take my laptop to my IT guy. We started talking college sports. He is a college sports fan, very typical I presume. I told him I went to SMU bc he saw I had PonyFans opened and asked me what is that and I said I'm a big SMU football fan and how hard it it is to be one and he says . . .

Middle aged IT guy: "Oh, man, I loved Dickerson and Craig James was a stud, too, back in the day. Too bad you guys got the death penalty. I went to SC and they got it bad too now, but not as bad as you guys did. You played in that old conference right? . . . SWC? Yeah, I loved Dickerson. You guys got a big name coach, though, in the last few years right but then you fired him? "

Me: "June Jones, no he's still there but a lot of people want him fired. Yeah, that sucks with SC, who's going to be your next coach?"

IT guy: "Maybe June Jones."

We both laugh.

IT guy: "Did you watch that 30 on 30 about SMU? That was really good."

Me: "Yeah, the director is an SMU alum and really good guy."

IT guy: "Yeah, it was really good. Man, I loved Eric Dickerson. You guys are a national program and are doing alright now, right?" (he mentioned 'national' because I was complaining that I had to stream ESPN3 to watch a lot of games bc we're not on national coverage a lot yet).

Me: "Yeah, much improved but have kind of platuea-ed in the last couple of years."

So my take is that he's pretty typical of the typical college football fan in that he has absolutely no connection to SMU whatsoever (he's an L.A. guy who went to SC) but knows a bit about our history (because he's older and also because he watched 30 on 30).

And my opinion is that we squandered a golden opportunity with that 30 on 30 and coming off a couple of bowl wins and to take that momentum to the next level. HOWEVER, I believe we just have to find a way to create that momentum again somehow. It also goes to show you that we have a powerful brand and could become a popular NATIONAL team again if we can get it back.

The LSU fans I took to the Tech game this year came into it thinking JJ had turned everything around and made SMU a real power. They did not understand my jaded/pessimistic view of his leadership before kickoff. After the game, they did. Just saying this to agree with your view of what those who don't follow SMU closely think has happened on the Hilltop...

[Stallion]

FACTOR 1
of course the biggest problem with that graph is that it covers time that Duke remained in BCS level ACC while SMU was in:

SWC(BCS Level)
WAC 1.0 ( a very strong conference with multiple Top 25 teams and even Top 10 teams)
WAC 2.0 an extremely weak conference
CUSA a slightly stronger conference

What exactly does it graph-SMU improvement or weaker competition?

FACTOR 2:

SMU had Ivy League admission standards until about 2000 and gradually eased but still had significant admission barriers until 2008-all prior coaches would have significantly benefited from those admission changes and June Jones would never have taken job in first place because "he didn't feel those coaches had a chance to win" BTW Ponyboy bitched an moaned all though the years on the graph at anybody who pointed out that SMU had little chance to compete based on its admissions standards. Now he's pretending that they never existed. For decades he's been spouting nonsense-probably more inaccurately and more clueless than any one on this board

[ponyboy]

FACTOR 1
of course the biggest problem with that graph is that it covers time that Duke remained in BCS level ACC while SMU was in:

SWC(BCS Level)
WAC 1.0 ( a very strong conference with multiple Top 25 teams and even Top 10 teams)
WAC 2.0 an extremely weak conference
CUSA a slightly stronger conference

What exactly dies it graph-SMU improvement or weaker competition?

FACTOR 2:

SMU had Ivy League admission standards until about 2000 and gradually eased but still had significant admission barriers until 2008

The rankings come from Congrove and take into consideration strength of opponent. It's as close as you can get to an objective measure of actual capability unless you want to use Sagarin. (Which I think is biased even after it reaches "full connectivity.")