Bowl Watch - October 22

[CalallenStang]

CUSA East:

Southern Miss (4-3) - With games against ECU, at Memphis, at Tulane, UAB, and Marshall left, there is little doubt of the Golden Eagles becoming bowl eligible.

East Carolina (3-4) - The Pirates need to win 3 in their final five, and with their schedule including only one more home game, that may be a tough task. We will see if they can take three in a schedule that includes at Southern Miss, at UCF, Marshall, at Rice, and at NC State. My feeling is that Southern Miss and NC State will beat them, but they could win the other three games. Still, with that many games on the road to finish the year, nothing is definite.

UAB (3-5) - Lose two of the last four...and the Blazers will be done. After dropping a game yesterday to an abysmal Marshall team (in which the Blazers allowed Ahmad Bradshaw to rush for 242 yds on 25 carries), I don't think they can win three games with a remaining schedule of at SMU, UTEP, at Southern Miss, and at UCF. An SMU victory over UAB would go a long way.

Marshall (2-5) - The Herd are not having a good year this year. They cannot lose two more games and they have two tough road games coming up to go along with a tough home game. They still have Memphis, Tulane, at ECU, UTEP, and at Southern Miss.

UCF (2-5) - Apparently, UCF didn't prepare for Rice's running game, as Quinton Smith ran over the Knight defense for 183 yards on the night. UCF still has at Houston, ECU, at Memphis, at Tulane, and UAB to go. Something tells me this team will play a part in shaping the CUSA bowl picture, but they won't make it to 6 wins.

Memphis (1-6) - It's sudden death for the Tigers, who unfortunately have a tough schedule including at Marshall, Southern Miss, UCF, Houston, and at UTEP.

CUSA East Bowl Eligibility Projection: Southern Miss, ECU

CUSA West:

Tulsa (6-1) - this team isn't unbeatable. They lost to BYU by 25, for Pete's sake. Coming off a 35-14 whooping of Memphis which allowed Tulsa to gain bowl eligibility, the Hurricane still has UTEP, at Houston, Rice, at SMU, and Tulane on their schedule.

Houston (5-3) - after a win over UTEP, the Cougs sit a win away from bowl eligibility. They still have UCF, Tulsa, at SMU, and at Memphis on their schedule, so they will probably get there easily. Still, they did lose to U La La.

UTEP (4-3) - just lost to UH. Luckily for the Miners, they still have 5 games in which they need just two wins, and with a schedule that includes at Tulsa, Rice, at UAB, at Marshall, and Memphis, they will probably be able to get two wins. However, if Jordan Palmer is able to complete his passes to his favorite receivers (the opposing team), we won't see UTEP in a bowl.

Rice (3-5) - Who thought the Owls would get any wins coming into this year? They just came off an impressive victory at UCF. Still, they must go 3-1 at the least to get to a bowl. With at UTEP, at Tulsa, ECU, and SMU still remaining, I don't believe they will get there.

Tulane (2-5) - With Army, at Marshall, Southern Miss, UCF, and at Tulsa remaining, I do not believe Tulane will get 4 wins in their final five to become bowl eligible.

Finally...SMU (4-4) - We have three of our final four games at home, where we have not lost since the ECU debacle in mid-October of 2005. With UAB, Houston, Tulsa, and at Rice remaining, I do not see us going any worse than 2-2, but at the same time, no better than 3-1. We better hope for 3-1 if we want a good bowl, but I don't see it happening.

CUSA West Bowl Eligibility Projection: Tulsa, Houston, UTEP, SMU

That leaves 6 teams bowl eligible this year. With 5 bowl spots open, chances are that one of those teams will be left out...so we should now look at average attendance:

C-USA Attendance Averages:

1.UTEP - 45,129
2.UM - 39,505
3.ECU - 36,327
4.UCF - 33,162
5.USM - 30,774
6.MU - 27,217
7.UAB - 25,005
8.Rice - 24,525
9.Tulsa - 21,993
10.UH - 21,553
11.Tulane - 18,315
12.SMU - 14,811

In other words, unless SMU has a 7-5 record and looks better than another 6-6 team, SMU will be sitting at home. The most we can do is try to continue winning and hope one of the teams I have projected as being bowl eligible (besides us and Tulsa) has a monumental collapse.

As it stands right now, here are my bowl projections:

Liberty: Tulsa
GMAC: Southern Miss
New Orleans: Houston
Birmingham: ECU
Armed Forces: UTEP

I don't think we will get an at-large bid with abysmal attendance...but we can look at those possibilities toward the end of the year.

[Charleston Pony]

that's probably a pretty fair analysis and bowl projections...unless La-Lafayette wins the Sun Belt. I would expect UTEP and Houston to be reversed under those circumstances

[CalallenStang]

that's probably a pretty fair analysis and bowl projections...unless La-Lafayette wins the Sun Belt. I would expect UTEP and Houston to be reversed under those circumstances

Probably so. I pretty much matched up teams to bowls based on geographic sense.

[PlanoStang]

#8.Rice - 24,525 average attendance Now we know where Russ
Potts is.

[mrydel]

I think that is all due to the UT game they hosted. That average will drop as the season progresses.

[Charleston Pony]

their game with SMU will certainly help bring it down

[CalallenStang]

#8.Rice - 24,525 average attendance Now we know where Russ
Potts is.

UT game in Reliant had over 50,000 in attendance.

[PonySnob]

Do we have any rent-a-fan games at home next year?

[mustangfan01]

It should also be noted that ECU has 5 games left. 4 on the road.

For ECU to become bowl eligible they must go 3-2 in the remaining 5 games...which means win at least half their road games and win their home game...If we were ECU right now you guys would be pulling your heart out.

ECUs remaining schedule: (3-4)

Southern Miss @ Southern Miss
UCF @ UCF
Marshall at home
Rice @ Rice
NC State @ NC State


I think we really made these guys look better than they are...I just don't see how ECU wins 3 of those 5 games. Especially since they are on the road.

UAB (3-5) remaining schedule:

SMU @ SMU
UTEP at home
Southern Miss @ Southern Miss
UCF @ UCF

I don't care what anybody says...UAB is done. They have to win 3 of those 4 games to be 6-6. Three road games and a home game vs UTEP! Ouch!

UAB vs ECU vs SMU for that bowl spot in my mind...

UAB is tanking, needs 3 wins (just lost to Marshall) out of 4
SMU has 3 of 4 games at home, needs 2 wins out of 4
ECU has 4 of 5 on the road, needs 3 wins out of 5

SMU has more of a control of it's destiny now than ever. It's been 22 years since we have had this chance...it feels great regardless.

SMU has one significant advantage here...we are playing 3 of our 4 games at home where we have not lost in a while. That's HUGE.

All I know is next Wednesday UAB will be 3-6, we will be 5-4 and ECU will be 3-5. Things will be much brighter -- have faith. Enjoy these next few weeks -- bowl or not this has been the most entertaining SMU football season in years.

[CalallenStang]

Do we have any rent-a-fan games at home next year?

Nope...unless we can market the heck out of the UNT game.

[SMU88]

"In other words, unless SMU has a 7-5 record and looks better than another 6-6 team, SMU will be sitting at home."

I disagree...if SMU wins 6 games they will go to a bowl game. The reason being is this: 1. This would bring a ton of national attention and publicity to whatever bowl chooses SMU because of the fact that it has been 22 years since our last bowl and the fact that the media would see this as SMU finally arising from the ashes of the Death Penalty. This attention and publicity would be as great as a BCS bowl. Every new organiztion would want to be there for the game and the amount of interviews that our players and coaches would have to endure would be tremendous. 2. Since it has been 22 years the amount of SMU fans/alumni that would go to the game would be huge. This wouldn't just students and local fans wanting to go to the game but alumni stretched across the country would be going. I live in Florida and my wife and I will be going to the game. I wouldn't be surprised to see Craig James at the game either doign commentary during the game or before the game.

[CalallenStang]

"In other words, unless SMU has a 7-5 record and looks better than another 6-6 team, SMU will be sitting at home."

I disagree...if SMU wins 6 games they will go to a bowl game. The reason being is this: 1. This would bring a ton of national attention and publicity to whatever bowl chooses SMU because of the fact that it has been 22 years since our last bowl and the fact that the media would see this as SMU finally arising from the ashes of the Death Penalty. This attention and publicity would be as great as a BCS bowl. Every new organiztion would want to be there for the game and the amount of interviews that our players and coaches would have to endure would be tremendous. 2. Since it has been 22 years the amount of SMU fans/alumni that would go to the game would be huge. This wouldn't just students and local fans wanting to go to the game but alumni stretched across the country would be going. I live in Florida and my wife and I will be going to the game. I wouldn't be surprised to see Craig James at the game either doign commentary during the game or before the game.

I hope that you are right, and I am wrong.

[J.T.supporta]

Dead Last in attendance...thats just as horrible as yesterdays loss.

[mr. pony]

We need to win out to have a realistic shot a bowl. 8-4

[perunapower]

We need to win out to have a realistic shot a bowl. 8-4

You are on crack. If we go 7-5 we have to be picked before any 6-6 teams in our conference get a bid. That's just the way it works.