Boise State vs. TCU

[HB Pony Dad]

Boise State vs. TCU

When: Tue., Dec. 23, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: San Diego
Preview: Best of the non-BCS meet in San Diego

TCU offense vs. Boise State defense

The Horned Frogs will mix in some wrinkles offensively. They'll run some zone-read option out of the shotgun. They'll also use WR Jeremy Kerley on some direct-snap runs. However, the majority of their offense is operated either from the one-back set or with QB Andy Dalton working out of the shotgun with a back lined up adjacent to him. TCU has a good thing going at running back now that Aaron Brown and Joseph Turner are both healthy. Brown is a versatile back with good open-field running skills, which is a good complement to Turner's bruising style. Brown averages nearly 10 carries per game and he gets additional touches as a receiver and return specialist. Turner (6-1, 227), on the other hand, does most of his damage on the ground (averaging 12 carries in 11 games played). Ryan Christian is a factor, as well. The versatile junior is averaging 4.2 yards per carry and ranks second on the team with 24 receptions.

Boise State will counter with a disciplined and experienced defense. The unit employs a lot of four-man fronts and works to maintain gap control. This unit typically does an excellent job versus the option. One thing that helps Boise State versus the run is the physical play of its safeties. Jeron Johnson and Ellis Powers are the unit's top two tacklers. They've combined for 155 total tackles this season, including 12 for losses. However, Boise's biggest starting defensive lineman is DT Joe Bozikovich, who is just 273 pounds. Boise's linebackers are only decent and the group, as a whole, also lacks size. MLB Derrell Acrey is the only one weighing in over 230 pounds. OLBs Tim Brady and Kyle Gingg both hover around the 205-pound mark, which is why TCU should be expected to target the perimeter in its run-heavy offensive game plan.

TCU doesn't rank very high nationally in passing offense, but Dalton can be effective when he's in a comfort zone. Dalton has a strong arm, and he can fit the ball into tight spots down the field when provided the time. WR Jimmy Young is Dalton's big-play weapon. The sophomore wideout leads the team with 54 catches for 926 yards (17.1 ypc) and five scores.

Dalton's offensive line does an above-average job in pass protection, and it should be able to keep the Broncos' pass rush in check. Most of their pass-rush pressure comes from the front four, which typically leaves seven defenders dropping into coverage. RDE Ryan Winterswyk is the unit's leading pass-rusher, with 4.5 sacks on the season. Mike T. Williams and Byron Hout, who split time at the left end spot opposite Winterswyk, have recorded four sacks apiece thus far.

The Broncos will throw a lot of different coverage looks in Dalton's direction when TCU does throw the ball. They like to play mostly zone coverage underneath and a mix of man-and-zone on the perimeter. Dalton must do a few things in order to be effective as a passer. First, he must read coverages well and not get suckered into buying all the pre-snap reads. Secondly, Dalton needs to be patient. There's nothing wrong with dumping the ball underneath for a four- or five-yard gain versus the soft zone coverage. Thirdly, he needs to avoid CB Kyle Wilson at all costs. Wilson is the playmaker in Boise's secondary. He baits quarterbacks well, and he does a great job of playing the ball in the air.

Boise State offense vs. TCU defense

This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the bowl season. Boise State's prolific offensive attack will look to take flight versus a stingy Horned Frogs defense. Variety is one reason Boise State's offense is so difficult to defend. QB Kellen Moore will work out of the shotgun with one back and four receivers on one play, and then he'll go under center with an I-formation behind him on the next. Ultimately, the Broncos' goal is to move the ball efficiently and patiently down the field. Moore, who ranks 10th nationally in pass efficiency, plays with great poise for a redshirt freshman. He sees the entire field, he spreads the ball around to all his different weapons and he gets the ball out of his hands quickly. Jeremy Childs is the most reliable receiver of the bunch, but Moore has completed passes to 17 different teammates -- nine of which have at least 10 receptions.

Moore is not without flaws, though. From what we've seen, he has some accuracy issues when it comes to throwing the deep ball. If our scouting report is correct, look for TCU to take advantage with some aggressive coverage looks that take away the underneath pass as much as possible and force Moore to take more chances vertically than usual. Head coach Chris Petersen will look to get the ball out of Moore's hands as quickly as possible in this game. His offensive line ranks fifth nationally in sacks allowed but the group has been shuffled 10 times this season and it will have some problems keeping DE Jerry Hughes in check. Hughes leads the nation with 14 sacks on the season. He displays outstanding initial burst and closing speed as a pass-rusher, which will cause ROT Nate Potter some problems when he's left alone on an island versus Hughes.

Finally, Boise State's offense is much more effective through the air than it is on the ground, but expect Petersen to mix in more draws, counters and screens than usual to keep the Horned Frogs' defensive front honest. Senior RB Ian Johnson is the experienced veteran with good skills as a receiver, blocker and short-yardage runner. However, Johnson is splitting carries with the smaller but quicker Jeremy Avery this season, and Avery figures to play a bigger role in the running game versus a fast TCU defense.


Special Teams

There isn't much separating these teams on special teams, but TCU does carry a slight edge heading into the game. Boise State is much better in the punting department, with Kyle Brotzman averaging 45.5 yards per attempt. However, Brotzman is not quite as efficient on field goal attempts (14-22) as TCU PK Ross Evans, who has connected on 15 of 19, with a long from 50 yards.

TCU ranks in the top 25 nationally in both punt return and kickoff return average. Aaron Brown averages 31.9 yards per kickoff return, including an 85-yard score, while Jeremy Kerley averages 14.5 yards per punt return. Boise is strong in the punt-return game thanks to the big-play ability of Kyle Wilson, but the team ranks 40th nationally on kickoff returns.


Prospects to Watch

CB Kyle Wilson: A bit undersized but very fluid and fast. Shows playmaking ability both in coverage (10 pass breakups and five interceptions) and on punt returns (averaging nearly 15 yards per return, including three scores).

WR Jeremy Childs: Built like a running back. Has emerged as a consistent target with reliable hands and adequate speed.

RB Ian Johnson: Experienced veteran. Not carrying as heavy a load in 2008, but still has value. Very instinctive runner near the goal line, and is contributing in multiple areas on special teams.

DE Jerry Hughes: Speed rusher with first-round potential as a 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL. Only a junior. Will have a tough decision to make after this game regarding his future.

ILB Jason Phillips: A vacuum versus the run. Leads his team with 79 total tackles, including 12 for losses.

RB Aaron Brown: Lacks ideal size and top-end speed but is a shifty runner with good vision and excellent versatility.


Scouts' Edge

The headline matchup in this game is Boise State's 12th ranked scoring offense versus TCU's second-ranked scoring defense. Ian Johnson has lost a step and Boise is no longer a great running team, as a result. Making matters worse, TCU owns the nation's best run defense. That means it will be up to Moore to carry the Bronco offense via the air. Moore is an extremely efficient passer but he hasn't had to deal with the type of pressure he will face versus Hughes and the Horned Frog's swarming defensive front. Needless to say, we like TCU to win the showdown on this side of the ball.

On the flipside, TCU has the depth at running back and size up front to wear down the Broncos undersized defense through four quarters. A solid ground attack will set up the play-action passing series for Dalton, who has the strong arm to connect with Young for a few game-breaking strikes via the air.

When it's all said and done, TCU makes yet another statement for the underrated Mountain West Conference by knocking off previously undefeated Boise State.


Prediction: Horned Frogs 27, Broncos 21

[lwjr]

Since part of the learning at SMU was/is to wish ill on TCU at any cost, I hope I do not catch to much flack when I say I will be pulling for TCU. My dad, who was a UT Ex, always said, "When they cross the Red River we are all on the same side." Now that I am older, maybe not so much wiser, I hope TCU beats them.

TCU 29 BSU 24

[Big Hoss]

Since part of the learning at SMU was/is to wish ill on TCU at any cost, I hope I do not catch to much flack when I say I will be pulling for TCU. My dad, who was a UT Ex, always said, "When they cross the Red River we are all on the same side." Now that I am older, maybe not so much wiser, I hope TCU beats them.

TCU 29 BSU 24

BOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

EDIT: I may have found a loophole for you to root against TCU. Since the game is not being played in Texas, the Broncos are not actually crossing the Red River!

[GO TCU!!!]

I'm worried about this game. Boise is pretty darn good.

[Pony Soup]

I'm worried about this game. Boise is pretty darn good.

I hope your freshman kicker, who ruined your season, blows this one too

[FroggieFever]

I'm worried about this game. Boise is pretty darn good.

I hope your freshman kicker, who ruined your season, blows this one too

Ruined our season? Wow, that's strong... if our season is ruined at 11-2, what's yours?

[Pony Soup]

I'm worried about this game. Boise is pretty darn good.

I hope your freshman kicker, who ruined your season, blows this one too

Ruined our season? Wow, that's strong... if our season is ruined at 11-2, what's yours?

I mean, if I was a TCU fan playing in Mountain West, I would have one objective: break into the BCS. 2008 was your year. You should have gone undefeated, won the MWC, and finally made it into a BCS game.

That didnt happen because someone couldn't make a field goal when it counted, much like a certain Longhorn who couldn't catch a ball that fell into his hands.

It's all relative, so while I am disappointed with our season, I would probably be more so if I were a frog.

Now don't go ranting on like a typical frog now, because i would love to be 11-2 in CUSA given where we are now. But when we get there, we will aim higher and be disappointed not to reach our goals. Like I said, it's all relative. No need to go bat [deleted] crazy because someone reminds you that you were ONE FIELD GOAL away from fulfilling your BCS dreams!!

You know as well as I (and I said they would) that you little froggies should have taken down Utah, and I still believe you are a better team. But really, no need to go on another team's fan board and act all crazy, especially to the fans of the 1-11 ponies (2 yrs running). Though I forget: you're 40, you're a man.

[that's great raplh]

this brown kid is pretty good

[PonySnob]

Please Mr. Orsini.....call TCU to see what they are doing to run their football program!!!!!

[BIGHORSE]

Please Mr. Orsini.....call TCU to see what they are doing to run their football program!!!!!

paying players!!!

[HB Pony Dad]

Please Mr. Orsini.....call TCU to see what they are doing to run their football program!!!!!

Well Orsini has got the Katy Texas QB's throwing INTs. to Lineman down pat!

[SMUer]

Please Mr. Orsini.....call TCU to see what they are doing to run their football program!!!!!

Well Orsini has got the Katy Texas QB's throwing INTs. to Lineman down pat!

Throwing INTs to defensive linemen is a Katy HS tradition it seems...(see Andy Dalton's)

[LA_Mustang]

bottom line....TCU is a damn good football team and they have one of their best recruiting classes ever coming in next fall. I would not be surprised to see them ranked in the top 10 pre-season next year.

[Corp]

...while I am disappointed with our season,

I would probably be more so if I were a frog.

True, tediously repetitious 11-2 seasons complete with high

national rankings and bowl games can be extremely vexing.

But of course, you already knew that.

[jimhagle]

I always thought Fran made Patterson and now I think otherwise. The guy has done a heck of a job-like it or not and the same thing can be done here-period!