SMU favored to beat TCU!?!

[SMUer]

I was perusing the postings on SMU2BCS.com's and saw that they shared links to a couple of computer ranking websites that had SMU in the Top 25...hmmm, interesting...and in some of them, we are ranked ahead of TCU! Below are some polls where we are favored.

Football Frontier - Computer rankings compiled to predict head-to-head winners, claims 70% of the time, it works everytime
(22) SMU vs (48) TCU
I checked and they ranked Baylor ahead of TCU prior to their upset...oh my!...but they also say that Ohio (MAC) and SDSU are better than Stanford...nah.
http://www.solecismic.com/frontier/stand11.php#team74

RoundTable
(35) SMU vs (48) TCU
http://www.rtsratings.com/curCFB.asp

[smupony94]

That is grape Kool Aide for TCU I guess

[StallionsModelT]

I think we will beat TCU, but we will not be favored.

[ericdickerson4life]

I wouldn't take any poll seriously if they had SDSU and Ohio above Stanford.

[smubrooks]

I hope we're not favored in the tcu game, I'm looking to score on the money line. The last few games have been quite annoying with the ponies being favored by so much. -21 over utep? -22 over Memphis? Are we that much better than these teams? Yes. have we covered a spread this large? not that I know of. 2-3 years ago was great betting on the ponies b/c they always covered and hit the occasional money line!

Pony Up!

[StangEsq]

Obviously it's a computer that doesn't consider strength of opponent... probably giving NWST way too much credit. We barely beat a team that barely beat Stony Brook.

TCU will be a 10 pt favorite... at least.

[SMU2007]

Spreads from the last 10 years...

2010: 17.5
2009: 28
2008: 24.5
2007: 23
2006: -
2005: 13.5
2005: 22
2003: 24.5
2002: 17.5
2001: 10.5
2000: 25

We've made some strides, but I have a hard time believing the line will be very small...

[StallionsModelT]

I'd say we are a 12 point dog to TCU.

[SMUer]

they said strength of schedule is factored...

I found it amusing and we needed a little sunshine on here. Crush Memphis, Damn TCU.

[SMU2007]

I guess if getting destroyed by a top 10 team actually makes your strength of schedule better....then yea.

[BIGHORSE]

I think the paper had Portland St. as a 40 point fav. over the frogs?

[StangEsq]

I guess if getting destroyed by a top 10 team actually makes your strength of schedule better....then yea.

Maybe they give you a boost for "destroying yourself against" a top 10 team.

[SMUer]

Year Site Line(Actual)
2000 (Home) +25.0(+55)
2001 (Home) +10.5(+28)
2002 (Away) +17.5(+11)
2003 (Home) +24.5(+7)
2004 (Away) +22.0(+44)
2005 (Home) +13.5(-11)
2007 (Away) +23.0(+14)
2008 (Home) +24.5(+41)
2009 (Away) +28.0(+25)
2010 (Home) +17.5(+17)

So if you bet on SMU to cover you'd be 6 of 10, to cover at home 3 of 6, to cover away 3 of 4. I like the fact that in the June Jones era we've covered 2 of 3 times. We've already had the heart, but suddenly we are getting the talent to beat TCU.

[PonyPlayer4]

Beat Memphis

[SMU2007]

Year Site Line(Actual)
2000 (Home) +25.0(+55)
2001 (Home) +10.5(+28)
2002 (Away) +17.5(+11)
2003 (Home) +24.5(+7)
2004 (Away) +22.0(+44)
2005 (Home) +13.5(-11)
2007 (Away) +23.0(+14)
2008 (Home) +24.5(+41)
2009 (Away) +28.0(+25)
2010 (Home) +17.5(+17)

So if you bet on SMU to cover you'd be 6 of 10, to cover at home 3 of 6, to cover away 3 of 4. I like the fact that in the June Jones era we've covered 2 of 3 times. We've already had the heart, but suddenly we are getting the talent to beat TCU.

yea i guess...we covered a 17.5 point line by losing by 17. while i guess that is still technically covering, it doesn't really make me feel warm and fuzzy about us covering 6 out of 10 or 2 out of 3 under jones, considering that half point is the only thing that separates us from being an even 5/10 with a losing record 1/3 under JJ.